Filecoin, the Millennium Pigeon King, is finally going online! It is actually a domestic project

I have written about so many projects that I have lost count of how many I have written about. My biggest feeling about filecoin is that it has the most comprehensive and detailed information in Chinese. Even three years ago, I didn’t see too many detailed introductions to its mechanisms on Youzi. So today’s article can only be regarded as a superficial understanding as a bystander. If you want to go deeper, you can search more content on Zhihu.

Hello everyone, I’m Pepe. The millennium pigeon king filecoin is finally going to be launched on the mainnet, at block height 148888, and is expected to be launched at 11 o’clock tomorrow night. However, if the miners advance quickly, it may be advanced (current height is 145900).

Filecoin is actually quite interesting now. Which circle do you think it belongs to?

Let's talk about the cryptocurrency circle. After asking around today, it seems that most people don't hold it. The rest are just betting that it will come like the DOT opening. Those with strong risk tolerance can buy futures before it goes online, and those with weak tolerance can wait for opportunities after it goes online. However, it seems that not many people have "belief" in it. Of course, this is normal, after all, it has been postponed so many times.

Speaking of the mining circle, it seems that the most heard thing in the past two years is the IPFS mining machine scam, so much so that now when people mention the company name when talking about IPFS or filecoin on the Internet, they will be scolded by netizens as profiteers who only want to sell mining machines.

Let's talk about Panquan. Looking at the first picture today, it still has a bit of an old flavor, but after all, it is a distributed network developed by a foreign team for many years, aiming to store the most important information of human society.

My personal feeling is that it was originally a top-notch project in the cryptocurrency circle. It seemed that it had received a lot of financing before and there were many star investment institutions behind it. However, because of this mining model, another group of people saw the profitability, so I feel that its style seems a bit weird.

Of course, for Filecoin, which is about to launch its mainnet, some "out-of-the-box" may not be a bad thing. Next, let's talk about the hype points that everyone is paying attention to about this coin in the short term:

1. Community popularity

The cryptocurrency circle is more concerned about the price of fil, and the short-term price of a coin often does not have much logic. It is more affected by the popularity of the community. As the saying goes, you take a bet, I take a bet, and everyone takes a bet, even the dog dealer will be worried when seeing it.

At present, one of the speculative points of fil is that it has some short-term popularity. Although there is some uncertainty in our current encryption market and the speculative boom brought about by defi has dissipated a lot, it is also mentioned above that it is a bit "out of the circle". There may be some attention and potential buyers that we are not yet aware of.

2. Expectations of the Shanghai Stock Exchange

Generally, those that are listed on major exchanges, especially those that are traded directly on mainstream exchanges right after the mainnet goes online, will still have some time windows for hype.

Currently, Huobi and OK have both stated that they will support coin deposit transactions as soon as possible.

Another point to note is that the transactions before the mainnet is launched are all futures contracts of various exchanges, not the kind of futures contracts for long and short positions. They are the token shares issued by the previous public offerings that are transferred to various small and medium-sized exchanges. Because of the difference in the chip shares, you can see that there is a price difference:

Moreover, the public offering part is unlocked linearly after going online. The one called FIL6 here will issue real coins over 6 months after going online, so the futures price may fluctuate greatly when it is launched, which involves certain risks. In addition, it can be seen that most of these futures products are actually from non-mainstream small exchanges, and more speculators may choose to wait until they are listed before making a decision.

3. Limited chips in the early stage

A large part of filecoin's chips are generated by storage mining.

The part that can be sold to the market after going online: linear unlocking of early investors + official + miner test network reward unlocking + miner block reward linear unlocking.

Here is a diagram of the community's circulation volume, which should be clearer:

As for miners, the test network conducted two phases of activities called "Space Race" to encourage early miners to participate in the test. The block rewards of this activity and the additional rewards for the top few will also be unlocked in six months after the main network is launched, with an estimated daily reward of 20,000 (there seems to be news today that the official seems to intend to increase the initial unlocking reward ratio for miners. Finally, please refer to the official website information for the final conclusion).

The miners’ block rewards are based on the originally expected allocation plus linear unlocking, which is 960*days.

Not to mention the thirty days of unlocking, even if it is unlocked on the tenth day, 5.4 million is already a lot if calculated at the price of $30 per chip, so why do you still say that the chips are limited?

This is because they have a token mechanism that requires miners to pledge tokens in advance before mining. The main purpose of this is to prevent miners from doing evil. For example, a user stores his tokens with you for 30 days, but you quit after half a month.

That means that for the mining pool, more needs to be mined and more needs to be pledged. In fact, the above table is just a prediction based on the current computing power. If the computing power is greater, the amount of pledged will be greater.

In the first few days, basically only early investors and officials had some liquid chips. So what should they do if they want to gain some computing power advantages in the early stage? It is worth thinking about for speculators.

Of course, it seems that there is only a very short time window. Unless early investors and officials do not move their coins or lend them to miners in need, it is estimated that their volume cannot support a price of dozens of dollars.

Well, the above are the three market concerns I have seen about the launch of fil. According to tradition, I still have to talk about the problems of this project:

1. Filecoin is actually a domestic project

Yes, it is almost unpopular overseas. If you are interested, search on YouTube for this week and this month to see how many foreigners are mentioning it. Note that you must search for videos here. It is likely that few of those who speak English on Twitter and Telegram are real foreigners.

Not only on social media, the situation on their test network is also clear at a glance. Look at the names of the nodes here:

493 active miners, 306 of which are in Asia:

In addition, in order to get more competition rewards, many people mine across borders:

According to this year's market trends, both Dark Horse and Dogecoin are mostly concentrated on popular targets in overseas communities, especially the Ethereum community, so we may not have too much expectation on its mid- to long-term price.

2. One thing that is different about its mining mechanism is that rewards are distributed according to effective computing power.

What is effective computing power? The model of filecoin is that miners are responsible for decentralized storage of data to obtain fil incentives. Users who need to store data use fil to place orders with miners. Then effective computing power refers to those that have been used by users, not the idle part (idle storage space seems to be able to be set to standby mode, and it seems that there can be a small amount of incentives. I am not sure about this yet, as the details of their mechanism are a bit too complicated).

But it is obvious that there will not be many storage customers in the early stage, so where does the effective computing power come from? It is possible that a large part of it is generated by the miners themselves. Although the project party intends to set up some verification methods to filter out invalid transactions, based on our intelligence, it may not be too big a threshold.

The problem here is that there are too many inflated storage orders, and the real data may not be properly stored in the future. In addition, such computing power creates a false prosperity, which is not a good thing for the network.

3. Performance may not support too much data storage

Currently, the test network has a block rate of 45 seconds, and each block is allowed to be 5M in size on average. A portion of this needs to be used as proof of storage for the network itself. This is not to mention that normal websites may have thousands or tens of thousands of storage and read operations per second. There are still questions about whether the dapps and defi in the circle can support it.

Of course, we should look at things dynamically. The above may be the current situation, but it may not necessarily not change. It’s just that from now on, we can’t see strong enough fundamental evidence. The only thing we can say is that it’s just hype.

Conclusion

If you want to explore this project more deeply, study the mining data recently.

The last little easter egg, when I checked filecoin, I found a node called Hot Wheels, which is now ranked 29th. I wish it good luck, go for it, haha.

Warm reminder: The above content is for reference only, please do not use it as a basis for investment directly. The digital currency market is risky, so please participate with caution!