How long will this halving last? ——《Wabi.com Celebrity Awards》

host

You have extensive experience in the industry. I would like to ask you to take stock of some well-known "black swan events" that have occurred in the currency or mining circles?

Liu Kuan

There have been several huge black swan events in the cryptocurrency industry, mainly due to policy intervention. For example, in 2013, five ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks"; in 2017, seven ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Preventing Token Issuance and Financing Risks"; and the development of mining machine giants' technology prevented the price of coins from falling for 15 months. In August 2018, Canaan Creative first mass-produced 7nm ASIC mining machine chips, which attracted widespread attention in the IT industry because it to a certain extent indicated that my country's chip industry has been at the forefront of the world. In September, Bitmain also released 7nm ASIC chips. The performance of chips does not only depend on the process. The dark horse of mining machines, Shenma Mining Machine, optimized the 16nm chip and brought the performance and power consumption of the M10 mining machine to the level of 7nm mining machines.

Unfortunately, 2018 ushered in a huge explosion in chip technology, but it was also the most difficult year for mining machines. As the price of coins continued to decline, mainstream mining machines were hard to come by, even though the price was 23 times higher at the beginning of the year. The price gradually fell, and second-hand machines were even reduced to scrap and sold by the kilogram at the end of the year.

host

How long do you think this halving will last? Can you also estimate the peak price of the following coins?

Liu Kuan

As we all know, Bitcoin is halved every four years, and the Bitcoin hashrate will be halved again in mid-May. According to the historical data, the bull market usually lasts for about 6-8 months, followed by a shock consolidation. The current digital currency bull market has just started in the second month, and I feel that the price of the currency will continue to rise. The bull market will not be too long. If you want to make money, you should buy mining machines to enter the market. The price of mining machines is relatively low now, which is very suitable for you.

1. Now the country has placed blockchain technology at the level of national strategy, which shows how much importance the country attaches to the blockchain industry.

2. The severity of this epidemic has prevented many traditional industries from developing normally, and many investors will flock to the cryptocurrency circle from traditional industries.

3. In May, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining will increase due to the reduction in production. Many low-computing power machines are facing the risk of elimination, and the increase in the computing power of the entire network may be relatively moderate. I think that with the support of these good news, it is not a problem for the price of the currency to break through the highest price of last year and continue to rise. The short-term goal should be 20,000 US dollars in 2017, about 140,000 RMB. As for whether it can break through 140,000 in 2020, the probability is still very high. The real super bull market should be at the end of 2021. Let's wait and see!

host

This halving coincides with the iteration of new and old mining machines. The first-generation Mechagod S9 will also enter the end of its life cycle. What arrangements have been made at this time when opportunities and challenges coexist?

Liu Kuan

With the arrival of the halving of Bitcoin computing power in May, the cost of starting up S9 will increase exponentially. In the future, if the electricity price remains unchanged, the price of the currency must be above 70,000-80,000 to maintain normal startup, otherwise it will face the fate of being eliminated. The solution to this problem is to find electricity resources with low enough cost to maintain its survival. There are currently two options. One is to build a mine by yourself, which is relatively low in cost, but the uncertainty is relatively large and the risk is very high. The other is to find very cheap high-quality electricity resources at home and abroad. In this regard, we have worked hard to connect with many high-quality electricity resources in 2018-2019. If you are willing to cooperate in building a mine and need electricity resources, you can contact me. At the same time, we are building our own mine. At the beginning of 2019, we built 5 small-scale mines in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places. Now there are two Sichuan mines under construction with a load of 80,000. Due to the impact of the epidemic, they have been temporarily suspended. The epidemic should be over soon, and we will resume work soon. In 2020, we will also launch our own cloud computing power APP to lower the investment threshold of customers and better serve our customers.

host

Many people speculate that due to many factors such as the delayed start of work by major manufacturers, insufficient spot inventory, rising logistics costs, and the halving market, the price of mining machines will usher in a round of increases. I would like to ask if the boss has adjusted the corporate strategy and product sales strategy?

Liu Kuan

Considering various factors, I think the delay in the start of work will not be too long, but the inventory of each manufacturer is very small. I feel that mining machines will be out of stock in the next 1-2 months. The price of the currency will remain at around 10,000. The price of the machine will increase, and the price of the currency will also increase.

host

I have always wanted to ask a question: Can't miners buy mining machines directly from mining machine manufacturers? Why are there so many dealers in the mining industry? Who are your customers? What services do you provide to them? How will the business of dealers change in the future?

Liu Kuan

Manufacturers are companies that specialize in the production of mining machines, and dealers are companies that specialize in the sales of mining machines. Manufacturers give dealers certain price advantages, and dealers purchase in bulk from manufacturers, which enables companies to devote more energy to product research and development and design, and speed up the development cycle of high-performance machines. Because dealers are professional in the sales of mining machines, with price advantages, dealers can devote their time and energy to the marketing and development of various market segments, thus accelerating the pace of development of the entire industry. As the saying goes, professional people do professional things.

Our target customers are entrepreneurs who want to transform from traditional industries, investors who specialize in investment, and those who understand blockchain and want to enter the mining circle.

As mentioned earlier, we will develop our own cloud computing platform to lower the investment threshold for investors. When we enter the market, we will provide one-stop services including mining machine purchase, hosting, consulting, etc. according to customer needs. As the industry gradually matures, we will invest more energy in customer service in the future, develop more products that meet customer needs, and optimize customer experience.