BTC may not have a long-term decline basis at this stage

Good wind helps me soar to the sky.

Since the Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved for listing by the US SEC on January 10th at the beginning of the year (see the 1.11 article of the Teaching Chain "BTC Enters the House, SEC Reluctant to Reject It"), BTC reached a high of 49k, and first took more than half a month to pull back to 38.5k, and then couldn't help but began to rise. On February 8th, it closed up 5% and stood back above 45k. Since then, it has been rising non-stop from 45k, and one month later, on March 13, it reached a historical high of 72.6k, effectively breaking through and surpassing the previous high of 69k on November 10, 2021, sending a technical signal of a bull market.

Just as the Jiaolian pointed out in the "2022 Year-end Review Outlook Report" in December 2022, 16k-17k was likely to be the low point of the cycle; then, when BTC has broken through the previous high and reached a new historical high of around 70k in March 2024, Jiaolian has already pointed out in the Jiaolian internal reference "Research shows that BTC will rise to 77k in early April and 146,000 dollars in 90 days" on March 14 that the mid-term risk is increasing. The internal reference said this at the time:

“ At present, 73k is basically at the middle track. From here, the risk starts to increase. The higher it goes, the greater the risk.

“ In a bear market, deleveraging can almost always result in a 70-80% drop, because this basically represents the scale of leverage accumulated in the bull market. Even if it rises to $350,000, which many people may not dare to imagine, a 70% correction will return to $100,000; and an 80% correction will return to $70,000, which is exactly the range when the current bull market started. What if the top of the mountain is not as high as $350,000? Then the height after the correction will only be lower.

“ Therefore, starting from $70,000, it is a “confirmation signal” that the investors who had previously withdrawn from the market have come back one after another, but it is also a watershed for the market to switch from low risk to high risk. The bear market is a good opportunity to build a position. Now it is a bull market, and many people who enter at this time may not make much money after going through this round of bull and bear markets. ”

In the spirit of anticipating the enemy, in the crypto market, the mathematical expectation of profit and loss of 5 times the return is equal to 0. This is still the lowest risk BTC.

If we still look at the old double logarithmic price corridor, the upper track at the end of 2024 will be $377,000 and the lower track will be $355,000. The upper track at the end of 2025 will be $512,000 and the lower track will be $50,000. The upper track at the end of 2026 will be $683,000 and the lower track will be $70,000. (See the article "Bitcoin's Price Corridor" on July 24, 2021 by Jiaolian)

There are several intuitive inferences that can be seen with the naked eye:

1. We are expected to see 100,000+ BTC by the end of this year.

Second, if this round of bull market can be "fully developed" (i.e. touch the upper track), then we may be lucky enough to see 300,000-500,000 BTC in the next 1-2 years.

3. If the “four-year cycle” is still valid, the bear market at the end of 2026 will approach the lower track of 70,000. This is exactly the price range of BTC today.

Know what to do:

30w -70% = 9w, 30w -80% = 6w;

35w -70% = 10w, 35w -80% = 7w;

40w -70% = 12w, 40w -80% = 8w;

45w -70% = 13w, 45w -80% = 9w;

50w -70% = 15w, 50w -80% = 10w.

Remember what Li Zongsheng sang in "The Hill": After crossing the hill, I found no one was waiting. Before I could see immortality as I wished, I lost myself first.

I hope that friends who enter the venue at this time will cross the hill and not get lost. When you reach the other side of the hill, you will find that the teaching chain has been waiting for you.

4. If old investors want to "escape the top", they might as well divide their positions into two parts: one part is for positions below 50,000 dollars, which can be almost as solid as a mountain; the other part is for positions above 70,000 dollars, and perhaps after crossing 100,000-150,000 dollars upwards, they can reduce their positions in batches.

The awareness of reducing positions must be not to take advantage of BTC, that is, to buy more at a cheaper price. Reducing positions requires taking the corresponding risk of "selling at a loss". If you cannot buy it back in the future, just don't regret it. Without this open-minded attitude, you will fail.

Can you wait until the stock price reaches 200,000 or even 300,000 before you start reducing your position? Actually, you can wait as long as you want. That is your freedom. As for whether you can wait that long, that depends on your fate.

Understand probability. Get rid of black and white thinking.

5. According to the "breathing theory (hypothesis)" proposed by Jiaolian (see Jiaolian's article "Bitcoin Price Outlook in 2023" on January 16, 2023), it returned to the water in May 2022 and has been exhaling until today, which seems to have already exhausted all the air inhaled from 2021 to the first half of 2022. Bitcoin's entire lung capacity has now been exhausted, and it urgently needs to surface (middle track) to inhale fresh air (funds), which is what the title of this article says, BTC may not have a long-term decline basis at this stage.

In fact, this was already said in the Teaching Chain’s internal reference on February 29, “The rush to the top has almost come true, but where is the road ahead?” The original words were:

" From the perspective of breathing theory, we are just about to surface (not yet), and our breath is about to exhale all the air we have inhaled in the 2021 bull market. If we don't inhale more air above the middle track, and directly collapse and dive down, what should we do without air to exhale underwater? It doesn't seem reasonable. "

This comment was made in response to a statement by a fund founder that BTC would fall back 15% in March.

From the perspective of macro factors, that is, external factors, the expiration of the BTFP tool in March, the resurgence of inflation in the United States, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting will surely not quickly turn to easing, all of which are not good news. In addition, BTC has indeed risen sharply in the past few months, which is daunting. At this moment, any macro analyst will probably tell you that BTC should have a large and long correction.

However, if we look at it from the perspective of endogenous contradictions, that is, from the perspective of internal causes, we are "drawing the sword and looking around in confusion", and we cannot see how BTC can dive directly into this place.

Many people think that external factors must determine internal factors. However, the teacher's "On Contradiction" always tells us clearly that internal factors determine external factors. " Therefore, victory or defeat is determined by internal factors. "

External factors can only work through internal factors. If internal factors do not allow it, external factors will be useless no matter how much they are applied. Just like your child doesn't like to study, no matter how hard you force him, you can't force him to become a top student.

I think that even the Federal Reserve, which is as powerful as a god, cannot defeat the teacher's thoughts.

This does not mean that you cannot insert a needle to drop or pull sharply. The time of inserting a needle is extremely short and does not take up breathing volume. Even if you insert a needle of -90%, its integral area is almost zero. In order to blow up the warehouse, everything is possible.

Theoretical deduction and academic discussion. Make bold assumptions and verify them carefully. Do not use them as any investment basis or trading advice. Please remember this.