Data perspective: the exchange game after BCHSV was “delisted”

Craig S Wright (CSW), a representative of the BSV community, has always claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, and is known as "Australian Satoshi". In fact, the global crypto community does not buy into this nickname, and many people call CSW a "scammer", including Hodlonaut, the initiator of the Lightning Network Torch Relay. Last week, the dispute between the two on Twitter triggered a drama of exchanges "encircling and suppressing" BSV.

Hodlonaut insisted that CSW was a liar, and CSW demanded that he retract his words and apologize in person, otherwise he would sue for defamation and threatened to offer a $5,000 reward in BSV to find out who Hodlonaut was. But this move angered the public. The crypto community launched topics such as "We are all Hodlonaut", "Boycott Wright", and "Delist BSV" on Twitter to criticize him.

On April 15, Binance announced the delisting of BSV, which turned the incident from a "war of words" into a "war" of real money, causing a sharp drop in BSV. Subsequently, exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken also said they were considering delisting BSV, but some exchanges such as OKEx said they were not considering delisting BSV for the time being.

Will BSV be "killed" by the "encirclement and suppression" of big firms?

As of April 15, BSV's market value was approximately $1 billion, ranking 14th in CoinMarketCap's market value ranking, down two places from a month ago (BSV's market value ranking was 12th on March 25). BSV is listed on 74 exchanges, including 6 trading and mining exchanges. A total of 21 trading pairs are available on all exchanges. Among them, SouthXchange is the exchange with the most trading pairs, with a total of 7 trading pairs, followed by Binance, with a total of 5 trading pairs. Among the 21 trading pairs, the exchange has the most BSV/BTC trading pairs, with a total of 47 pairs. The second is the BSV/USDT trading pair, with a total of 33 pairs. Apart from these two, the number of trading pairs formed between BSV and other cryptocurrencies is not large, and most of them are individual cases of a certain exchange.

From this perspective, although BSV is one of the top 30 cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization and is listed on 74 exchanges, its liquidity has good breadth but lacks depth. This can also be seen from the daily trading volume contributed by each trading pair. BSV/USDT alone accounts for 57% of BSV's daily trading volume, while the daily trading volume between BSV and /BTC accounts for less than 29%.

After Binance announced on April 15 that it would delist BSV, the market value of BSV fell by 16.54% on the previous day, and $200 million evaporated in just one day. The news of Binance's delisting did cause BSV to suffer heavy losses, but it is still impossible to determine whether this negative impact is permanent or temporary. On the one hand, the 16.54% daily decline in market value is not the largest decline since the birth of BSV. March 11, 2019 was the day with the largest market value evaporation since the birth of BSV, and its market value fell by more than 24% on the previous day. On the other hand, the decline in market value has now narrowed. On April 16, public opinion continued to ferment, and the market value of BSV fell to around $1 billion, a month-on-month decline of 3% on the previous day. The news that Binance announced the delisting of BSV has caused the market value of BSV to fall by nearly 20% in two days, evaporating a total of about $240 million.

Similar to the data performance of market value, the price of BSV also showed a sharp drop on April 15, but the decline narrowed afterwards. The single-day price fluctuation and the daily month-on-month decline did not set a new record. On April 15, BSV opened high and fell, and the CMC closing price was US$59.29, with a large intraday fluctuation of 25.87%, and the closing price fell by 16.55% from the previous day. On April 16, the price of the currency continued to fall, with the largest intraday fluctuation of 13.24%, and the closing price fell by 3% from the previous trading day, and the decline narrowed.

Since Binance announced on April 15 that it would delist BSV, the total daily trading volume of exchanges included in CoinCarketCap on April 15 was US$255.96 million, while on April 16 this figure was US$189.29 billion, a month-on-month decrease of nearly 26%.

From the vertical comparison within the exchanges, except for 4 exchanges whose daily trading volume was not included in the 74 exchanges (the trading volume on CMC was 0 on the previous day, temporarily excluded from the statistics), the trading volume of 47 exchanges on the 16th decreased compared with the previous day, with an average decrease of about 40% (including 95% confidence interval). Among them, Cobinhood had the largest decrease, with a daily decrease of 100%, but considering that its trading volume on April 15 was only $60, there is a certain deviation. If the statistical scope is narrowed to exchanges with daily trading volume of more than $100,000 on April 15, Coinsuper is the exchange with the largest daily decrease, and its trading volume on the 16th decreased by about 69% compared with the previous day. Binance, which provoked the "war" between exchanges and BSV, saw its trading volume on April 16 decrease by 52.51% month-on-month after announcing the delisting of BSV.

Although BSV is facing "encirclement and suppression" from most exchanges, it cannot be denied that there is still a demand for speculation in the market. Among the 74 exchanges, the trading volume of another 23 exchanges on the 16th increased month-on-month compared with the previous day, with an average increase of 164.77% (including 95% confidence interval). Among them, Coinbit had the highest increase, with a trading volume of more than 260,000 on the 16th, a single-day increase of more than 2000% month-on-month, but considering that its trading volume on April 15 was only about 10,000 US dollars, there is a certain deviation. If the statistical scope is narrowed to exchanges with a daily trading volume of more than 100,000 US dollars on April 15, then DigiFinex is the exchange with the largest daily month-on-month increase, and its trading volume on the 16th increased by about 256% month-on-month compared with the previous day.

From the horizontal comparison of the daily trading volume of exchanges, before Binance announced the delisting of BSV, Binance was the largest channel for BSV. On April 15, BSV's daily trading volume on Binance accounted for about 13% of BSV's total daily trading volume. On April 16, after the announcement of the delisting, BSV's daily trading volume on Binance only accounted for about 9% of BSV's total daily trading volume, but Binance is still BSV's largest "traffic source". The daily trading volume share of BSV on 55Global Markets and DigiFinex has increased significantly, from about 2% to about 7% and from about 1% to 7%, respectively, with an increase of more than 5%.

In fact, exchanges have formed a game relationship over whether to delist BSV, which means that as long as not all exchanges announce the delisting of BSV, BSV will not "die". Whether users are motivated by investment or speculation, in order to buy BSV, they will switch from exchanges that have delisted BSV to exchanges that have not delisted BSV. Delisting BSV will harm both exchanges and BSV, but in the current situation where exchanges have a strong control over traffic channels, BSV's losses will be more severe.

(Source: PANews)