Will Bitcoin break out or crash? Here’s what analysts think

Cryptocurrency analysts predict three major events in the coming weeks that could push the price of Bitcoin higher.

Bitcoin has been in a downtrend between $74,000 and $52,000 for the past seven months, with investors growing increasingly concerned about whether BTC will break out to the upside or continue lower.

Market in “wait and see” mode

Mena Theodorou, co-founder of Coinstash, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s next big move will depend on how the market reacts to upcoming political and regulatory changes in the United States during the election season, as well as upcoming macroeconomic data.

Interest rates and employment data

EToro market analyst Josh Gilbert told Cointelegraph that he expects the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 18 to be the next “big catalyst” for Bitcoin price action.

The consensus among market participants is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 0.525%, which Gilbert said is a major positive for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

“The bottom line is that a rate cut is coming, but the focus now is on how big it will be. This week’s U.S. jobs data will be the main driver of expectations and likely cause volatility in crypto assets,” Gilbert said.

Coinstash CEO Tina Wang told Cointelegraph that investors should keep an eye on the upcoming U.S. jobs data, which is set to be released on Sept. 6.

"The higher-than-expected unemployment rate in July has raised concerns about a possible recession. As we all know, the unemployment rate is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could mean a recession is more likely, which is not good news," she said.

“On the other hand, this could actually be good for the market because it could give the Fed more reasons to cut rates,” Wang added.

Breaking down the resistance cluster

IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore said in a Sept. 3 investment note seen by Cointelegraph that Bitcoin needs a “sustained breakout” above recent highs of $65,000 to solidify a proper reversal.

Sycamore said that if Bitcoin can break through this level, the asset will then face a “resistance cluster” between $70,000 and $74,000 before the market can turn positive.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $59,140, ​​up 40% since January 1. As of the time of publishing, BTC is still down 20% from its all-time high of $73,800 reached on March 14, according to TradingView data.

In the medium term, Gilbert said investors should prepare for further volatility in September. Historically, September is the worst month for bitcoin price action, with an average monthly return of -4.3% in the 11 years since 2013.
Still strong global growth, an upward revision to US GDP last week, double-digit US second quarter earnings growth, and rate cuts suggest that the market has further room to rise. There will be major risk events ahead, but there are reasons to be optimistic.