This report analyzes more than 3,000 spot token listings on 9 major centralized exchanges (CEX) and more than 120 decentralized exchanges (DEX) in 2024. The purpose is to evaluate the overall trend of token listings on each platform and assess the price and trading volume performance of tokens during these events. Key findingsCentralized exchanges use different strategies to prioritize listings, focusing on different fully diluted valuation (FDV) levels. Exchanges with fewer listed tokens tend to prioritize listing tokens with larger FDVs (over $500 million), while exchanges with more frequent listings tend to prioritize tokens with FDVs below $30 million. Listing activity is closely tied to Bitcoin’s price action, with activity increasing during bull markets and decreasing when Bitcoin’s gains stall. While all FDV-sized tokens are affected by this trend, large FDV tokens are more sensitive to changes in market sentiment. Price performance, measured as 7-day and 30-day changes relative to the closing price on the listing day, largely reflects Bitcoin's price trend, but there are indeed differences between different exchanges. A "smiling curve" pattern emerges: exchanges with the highest (such as Binance) and lowest (such as MEXC) average listing FDV record positive price changes, while mid-sized exchanges (such as Bybit, Bitget) have the largest declines. In terms of trading volume, Binance leads in terms of trading volume of newly listed tokens, followed by OKX and Upbit. It is worth noting that Upbit's trading volume in the first 24 hours is comparable to Binance, while OKX leads in terms of trading volume of tokens in the $30 million to $100 million FDV level. Tokens that debuted on DEXs with over $30 million in FDV performed comparable to debuts on mid-sized CEXs. Price performance of tokens debuting on DEXs (measured by change from day 2 to day 7 and day 30) outperformed 4 of the 5 mid-sized CEXs. Volumes in the first 30 days were also similar or higher than CEXs such as Kucoin, Gate, and MEXC. It is not uncommon for DEX ICOs to later appear on medium-sized CEXs, but it is uncommon for them to appear on large CEXs. Of the DEX ICOs sampled in the second half of 2024, about 16% of the tokens were subsequently listed on CEXs, and only 2% of the tokens were successfully listed on large exchanges such as Binance, OKX, or Upbit. CEX listing performanceOverviewA total of 3,074 token listings were recorded in the report. 1,226 events (40%) were identified as primary listings, which were launched within the first 2 days after the token was launched, while 1,848 events (60%) were identified as secondary listings. Most exchanges take a balanced approach, participating in primary listings and conducting secondary listings in almost equal proportions. Generally speaking, exchanges that list high FDV projects focus on fewer, larger listings, while exchanges that list smaller FDV projects have more listing events. Two Korean exchanges, Upbit and Bithumb, focus mainly on secondary listings, and due to the practices of these exchanges, the primary listings may not be the first listings. In the rest of this article, exchanges will be sorted by their average listing FDV, with exchanges with high listing FDVs referred to as “large exchanges” and the rest as “medium exchanges”. Monthly summary of coin listing eventsThere are more listings during bull markets (February to March and August to December), while the number of listings decreases during market downturns. April was a standout month, as listings continued to climb despite a reversal in BTC price. This effect was less evident in December, when BTC stagnated again after two months of gains. In terms of the number of listings, the top exchanges were less affected by the bear market, as reflected in the increasing share of listings during these periods. Listing events by FDVLarge exchanges focus most of their listing efforts on the $500 million+ FDV category, with the top four exchanges accounting for 25% of listing activity in this tier. Still, mid-sized exchanges contribute the majority of listing activity in the $500M+ category, likely because projects on large exchanges often co-list on mid-sized exchanges, but not vice versa. Mid-sized exchanges such as Bybit, KuCoin, Bitget, and Gate have a more balanced listing volume across the four FDV tiers, with $30 million to $500 million having a slightly larger share. MEXC has taken a different approach, focusing on tokens with FDV ≤ $30 million, accounting for 70% of listing activity in this category. Monthly coin listing events by FDV levelThe FDV tier above $500 million is most susceptible to changes in market sentiment, with listings increasing rapidly during the February-March rally, exceeding expectations in April, and then contracting until the September-December rebound. The ≤$30M FDV tier closely tracks overall listing momentum during the bull run, but accounts for a larger share of listing events during periods such as June-September. Price performance of listed coinsThe price performance of each exchange forms a “smile curve”, with tokens at both ends of the curve performing better than those in the middle. The tokens listed on Binance and MEXC at both ends showed positive price changes after 30 days, while the average price of tokens listed on Bybit and Bitget fell by about 10%. The 7-day price performance shows a similar pattern, with Binance-listed coins up about 3%, MEXC-listed coins basically flat, and the exchanges in the middle seeing larger declines. The median price change is generally lower than the mean, indicating that a small number of token listings account for the majority of the share. Aggregate price performance by FDV levelAccording to the FDV level, the price change patterns of 7-day and 30-day are different. FDV-rated tokens with a value of ≤$30 million experienced a price drop after 7 days, but rebounded strongly by day 30, showing the greatest contrast among the four tiers. FDV-rated tokens with a value of $300-$100 million and >$500 million experienced a modest price drop after 7 days, and on average, remained at similar levels over the 30 days. FDV-rated tokens in the $100 million to $500 million range fell 2% in the first seven days, but the decline widened to over 11% on the 30th day, indicating an overall downward trend after the first week. Monthly summary of listed coin price performanceFrom a time perspective, price performance is mainly driven by market conditions. During BTC bull markets, token listings performed neutrally or positively. During BTC bear markets, token listings performed negatively. Monthly performance of coin prices on various exchangesPrice changes remained positive on most exchanges in February, October, and November, when BTC prices rose sharply. January and May deviated from the overall BTC price trend: tokens listed in January underperformed despite BTC’s impending rebound; tokens listed in May performed well despite May being in a slow bear market. Despite the neutral market, the prices of tokens listed in December underperformed. The price performance of listed coins on each exchange is summarized by FDV levelSmall FDV token listings have seen better price performance on mid-sized exchanges such as KuCoin, Gate, and MEXC compared to larger exchanges such as OKX and Bybit. Medium-cap FDV tokens ($30-500M) listings performed better on large exchanges than medium-cap exchanges. Large-cap FDV tokens (>500M) listings performed relatively consistently across exchanges, with minimal price volatility from day 7 to day 30. Monthly performance of listed coin prices by FDV levelSmall-cap FDV tokens have shown strong price performance, outperforming mid-cap FDV tokens ($30m-$500m) in 30-day price change rates in most months, regardless of bullish or bearish market conditions. The mid-cap FDV token experienced strong 7-day price gains in October and November, but still lags behind other categories on a 30-day basis. Large cap FDV tokens show stronger consistency across months, with both 7-day and 30-day price performance being positive in half of the months. Exchange volumeBinance leads in terms of new token trading volume, followed by Upbit and OKX. Upbit’s volume in the first 24 hours was strong, almost on par with Binance, but its 30-day volume fell back to similar levels as OKX. Among mid-sized exchanges, Bybit saw strong volumes both in the first 24 hours and over the entire 30-day period. Monthly summary of trading volumeInitial listing volume largely follows the bear/bull market cycle, with higher initial listing volume during the February-March and September-December periods. In April, a month after the first wave of price increases, listing activity exceeded expectations, but trading volume was below the 30-day average. This suggests that excessive listings during quieter periods of the market may dilute the trading volume of newly listed tokens. Trading volume by FDV levelThe trading volume basically follows the level of the token's FDV. Compared with the minimum FDV level, the trading volume of the maximum FDV level in the first 24 hours is 60 times that of the minimum FDV level, and the trading volume in the first 30 days is 25 times that of the minimum FDV level. Monthly summary of trading volume of each exchangeIn most months, Binance leads in terms of trading volume for newly listed tokens. Newly listed tokens on Upbit show high uncertainty in terms of initial trading volume. While it led the pack in terms of 30-day trading volume in February, July, and December, there were also months when the trading volume for the newly listed tokens was very low. Trading volume by FDV level for each exchangeBinance-listed coins have the largest trading volume, mainly concentrated in the FDV category of $100 million to $500 million. On the other hand, OKX’s mid-tier FDV tokens have significant trading volumes ($30-100 million). Among mid-sized exchanges, Bybit has a relatively stable trading volume across all FDV levels, while other mid-sized exchanges usually have trading volumes concentrated on mid-level FDV tokens. DEX vs CEXDEX listings are often viewed as complementary to CEX listings. DEX liquidity pools are often created in parallel with the initial CEX listing, allowing users the flexibility to trade on-chain or through the CEX. On the other hand, listing exclusively on a DEX is often associated with a more decentralized approach, used primarily by long-tail tokens with limited mainstream appeal. However, recently more and more projects have chosen DEX as their only initial listing platform, delaying or abandoning CEX listing for a period of time. In order to evaluate the feasibility and impact of this strategy, this article analyzes relevant data and indicators to compare DEX and CEX. To ensure an objective comparison, DEX listings are defined as tokens that have maintained liquidity exclusively on decentralized exchanges for at least 30 days. For CEX listings, we focus on primary listing events, representing tokens that have introduced centralized exchanges as their primary trading venue. To avoid biasing the results for long-tail tokens, the analysis is limited to tokens with FDV between $30 million and $500 million to ensure balance between the two groups of tokens. When measuring price performance, the percentage price change from day 2 to day 7 and day 2 to day 30 is used instead of the time period from listing to day 7 or day 30. This adjustment takes into account the different price discovery mechanisms between CEX and DEX on the day of listing, otherwise a direct comparison would be invalid. For trading volume, a consistent approach is maintained, using the previous 24 hours and 30 days of trading volume as the key indicator. Listing Event Summary: DEX vs. CEXThe analysis sampled 415 major listings that occurred in the second half of 2024, focusing on tokens with fully diluted valuations (FDV) between $30 million and $500 million. Of these, 114 were classified as priority DEX listings, meaning the tokens were listed exclusively on a DEX in their first month. In August, DEX listings demonstrated a pick-up in activity in Q4 after a slump that was more sensitive to market momentum. In Q3, priority DEX listings accounted for less than 20% of new tokens, but by November and December, that share had surged to over 30%. Most of the CEX listings in this analysis are concentrated on medium-sized exchanges. On the other hand, Binance and OKX only have a few listing events. Price changes on DEX and CEX when they first go publicAmong mid-sized CEXs, performance was mixed from day 2 to day 7. By day 30, all listed tokens, except for the token on MEXC, saw negative price changes. In contrast, tokens listed on DEXs for the first time showed positive growth on day 7 and a slight decline on day 30, outperforming most mid-cap CEX-listed tokens. OKX led the price performance among the large CEXs, with listed tokens rising by about 14% from day 2 to day 7 and maintaining this level after 30 days. However, due to the limited amount of data, the performance of Binance and OKX should be interpreted with caution. Average trading volume of first listings on DEX vs CEXDEX trading volumes are comparable to mid-sized CEXs such as KuCoin, Gate, and MEXC, while OKX and Binance have higher average trading volumes than other exchanges. The concentration of trading volume in the first 24 hours on DEX and CEX showed similar patterns, indicating that the market is paying attention to the same trend. This volume performance, combined with price performance 30 days after listing, suggests that the impact of a first-time DEX listing on a token’s performance is comparable to that of a mid-sized CEX. Token Listing Tier AnalysisThe 415 sampled listing events cover a total of 238 tokens. Of these, 126 tokens were initially listed only on DEXs, while the rest were listed on medium-sized or large centralized exchanges. It should be noted that the DEX-listed tokens included in the analysis are limited to those indexed on CoinMarketCap. About 16% of tokens that were initially listed on DEXs were later listed on CEXs, mostly in the mid-sized CEX category. However, only 2% of tokens that were first listed on DEXs were subsequently supported on top CEXs such as Binance, Upbit, or OKX. For tokens that were first listed on mid-sized CEXs, about 3% ended up listing on high FDV CEXs, which is about the same probability as tokens that were first listed on DEXs. These findings suggest that while top DEX tokens have a fair chance of being listed on a CEX, they are most likely to land on mid-sized exchanges. Regardless of whether a token starts out on a DEX or a mid-sized CEX, the probability of a mid-sized FDV token making it to a top CEX remains low. |
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