Analyst: Bitcoin's popularity is gradually increasing, it is more powerful than a supercomputer, and its market value will exceed $100 billion

On Thursday, former Needham analyst Spencer Bogart published a blog post predicting that Bitcoin's market value will eventually "exceed 1000亿美元." Bogart, who previously became famous for predicting the approval rate of a Bitcoin ETF, believes that the chances of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Bitcoin ETF are less than 25%.

Bogart recently resigned from his position as vice president of equity research at Needham. He has published several investment reports on Bitcoin, including Barry Silbert's investment trust. He has now joined Blockchain Capital as the company's director of research and general manager.

Founded in the fall of 2013, Blockchain Capital is a startup led by Brock Pierce, Bart Stephens, and Brad Stephens. The venture capital firm has invested in nearly 42 companies, including Abra, Bitfury, Bitgo, BTCC, Chain, Coinbase, Kraken, Wave, and Xapo.

Rapid Development

In Bogart’s writing, Bitcoin is “a classic example of a disruptive technology that has grown from a small and struggling market to a more mainstream, high-value market.” He added:

Over time, Bitcoin has proven itself useful in market segments where further development has been difficult or even impossible.

In addition, he observed that "over the past few years, Bitcoin has developed very rapidly, as can be seen from all observable data." He mentioned two indicators that he was more satisfied with.

The first is “predictable dollar volume,” which he says provides “a reasonable picture of economic activity on the Bitcoin network.” Over the past 18 months, Bitcoin’s daily economic activity has 4倍(a compound annual growth rate of more than 160% ). He wrote:

Simply put, the economic momentum of Bitcoin is strong.

The second set of indicators is the "Bitcoin network hashrate", which is used to measure the computing power in the Bitcoin network. He revealed:

It has been observed that this data has increased 5倍since 2016 (CAGR 300% ).

He said, "This part of the computer computing power is thousands of times more powerful than the world's top 500 supercomputers." Although no direct comparison was made, it can be seen from his description that the computing power that ensures the security of the Bitcoin network is extremely powerful.

Potential market value greater than $100 billion

At press time, Bitcoin’s market cap is around $18 billion, and Bogart wrote:

Unless something irreversible happens, the market value of Bitcoin is likely to exceed $100 billion in the next few years.

In addition, he added:

I believe there are many positive factors driving the popularity of Bitcoin, and it is precisely because of these factors that Bitcoin's market value has the potential to exceed $100 billion.

This set of factors can be divided into “internal” and “external” factors of the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Internal factors include the characteristics of Bitcoin itself, such as multi-signature protection and time-locked transactions, the need to integrate Bitcoin apps, and market maturity signs such as liquidity and stability. He mentioned external factors as national policies and financial crises. National policies can be beneficial or harmful to Bitcoin, such as Switzerland's support for Bitcoin and China's strict control over capital outflows.