|
The cryptocurrency market is full of confusing things, and it is difficult to distinguish between speculation and investment
1. Market Trends <br/>Today is October 31, 2016. The current price of Bitcoin is 4760. It was a roller coaster ride on Saturday and Sunday, with the price rising from 4700 to over 4950, and then falling again. The price falls when it rises too much, and rises when it falls too much. The daily K-line has opened six positive lines in a row, and today it finally ushered in a big correction. The target of more than 5000 will be postponed for the time being. The short-term 4-hour support is around 4740, and the daily K-line support price is at 4700. The medium-term trend is suppressed by the upper track of the Bollinger band of the daily K-line and the weekly K-line. Entering 2016, more and more friends have entered the digital asset investment. However, many friends still have various questions about what currency to invest in. A certain F coin was just launched, and J published an article saying "I expect to invest in XXX and get a 200-fold return in 3 years." However, F coin has been online for a month and has been falling every day. At present, the decline has exceeded 50%, which is directly cut in half. It has been less than a month since the article was published. Just imagine how those who bought F coins after reading J’s article felt.
Why invest in newly launched coins? A friend in the group gave a ridiculous answer, "Bitcoin is worth playing with except for early beneficiaries, and newcomers are just taking over." So they would rather take over the pain of altcoins that have fallen by more than 50% in a month than enjoy the pleasure of Bitcoin's 20% increase in a month? Another friend said to the author, "Is buying new coins the same as buying new stocks in the stock market?" But the stock market and the digital asset market are not markets at the same level. When new stocks are listed, various media reports are everywhere. When new altcoins are listed on trading platforms, the publicity is limited to the currency circle. The publicity objects are extremely homogeneous, so where can there be so many people taking over? Another friend thinks, "Bitcoin costs thousands of yuan each, the price is so high, it is better to buy XXX coins, which are only 1 cent each, and the appreciation space is definitely higher than Bitcoin." For such remarks, I just want to ask in return, the sand on the roadside costs tens of yuan per ton, why don't you transport a few tons home and wait for appreciation, but buy gold for hundreds of yuan per gram?
Some of the "disadvantages" of Bitcoin are as follows: slow transaction confirmation time, constant quantity, unsafe algorithm, unstable value, transparent and anonymous (too transparent, not anonymous enough), mining consumes too much energy, large block size, non-customizable blocks, single function, slow upgrade speed. Every year, three to four thousand copycat coins take turns to "attack" Bitcoin for the above "disadvantages", but each coin usually disappears in less than half a year, with a drop of more than 80%, and then no one cares about it.
Many newcomers to the market cannot tell the difference between "speculation" and "investment". Following the old players who have been playing for a few years, the old players are "speculating", while the newcomers treat the old players' "speculation" as "investment". The old players speculate on a coin, enter and exit quickly, and may not hold the position for more than two weeks, and run away after making a profit. While the new players, after seeing the soft article of XX coin, are still fantasizing about holding the coin for three years and multiplying it 200 times, they may lose 99.5% in less than three years (the author has a coin that he bought two years ago and now has a loss of more than 99.5%. Yes, I invested 10,000 yuan at the beginning, and now it is worth less than 50 yuan). The decline of a coin (the decline reaches more than 90% and becomes a dead coin) may take two, three years, or even longer.
In early October, several friends sent me private messages asking whether it is good to buy Dogecoin? Is it good to buy Litecoin? Which is better, ETH or ETC? …. The author has always had only one answer: buy Bitcoin. For other more sensational coins, remember that they are only for short-term speculation and never for investment. Bitcoin is the only currency that is worth investing in for a long time.
Looking at the data, on Saturday and Sunday, after the price rose, the long-short index turned slightly to the short side. There are still many new entrants.
2. The long-short index looks at the recognition of the value of Bitcoin by the OTC market <br/>The figure shows the long-short index with a period of 6 hours. 3. The newcomer index looks at the relative amount of funds entering the market <br/>The figure shows the newcomer index with a period of 24 hours. |
