Last night, I had a drink with several friends in the blockchain technology research field in Shanghai, and talked about the present and future of blockchain. Most of my classmates started as miners and have deep feelings for Bitcoin. I was also a miner in the past, but because I didn’t predict the power factor well, I didn’t mine the coins, but burned out the server and some electrical appliances. Yesterday, everyone shared the view that mining is not only not environmentally friendly, but also destroys the ecology. I wonder if you miners agree? Three schools of thought in blockchain researchFrom the perspective of current researchers in the blockchain field, they can basically be divided into three groups. The first group is the technical group, most of whom have found their own position in translating articles on foreign blockchain technology. The problem with the technical group is that the articles are difficult to read, and the author habitually defines the language of the technical group as "not speaking human language". The second group belongs to the practical group, which is not born in technology. It may be because they started to contact Bitcoin in 2012 and 2013, participated in its investment, and obtained good returns. After that, they began to study this field, from cryptocurrency research to the attention and research on blockchain. Students in this group have started businesses in specific application scenarios. They dare not spend more money in the company's account. They are ambitious and cautious about the prospects of the industry. The feeling of starting a business is both exciting and lonely. The third group belongs to the trend group, which can be divided into two groups. One is to use its own resources and industry positioning to launch movements and attempts in technology and commercial application scenarios. For example, KPCG, a venture capital firm, was the first in the world to use blockchain to reward partners and their partners who made significant contributions to the project. Another example is Deloitte, which invested in the application of blockchain in the auditing field relatively early. Just after New Year's Day, it cooperated with Wanxiang Blockchain Lab to launch the application scenario dark horse competition, and more than 20 teams from all over the world signed up to participate. SoftBank, a world-renowned venture capital firm, launched the commercial application of blockchain technology in the field of project investment and financing. The second type of people in the trend group spend more time on practical exploration in commercial application scenarios, weakening technology, and more insight into the commercial value of blockchain. The author belongs to this type of people. This type of people speak human language! The author once said that 2015 was the first year of blockchain theory. Through the technology itself, the theory has become more and more mature. Most researchers can reach a consensus, and regularly discuss and interact, and actively explore the commercial application of the technology. The explosion of blockchain technology will herald the end of Internet information technologyHowever, an interesting phenomenon has emerged. Some schools of thought have also emerged among researchers, mainly due to differences in theoretical systems between Beijing and Shanghai. Some researchers in Beijing have applied important principles and viewpoints of quantum mechanics and artificial intelligence to the theoretical research of blockchain. Researchers in Shanghai do not quite agree with this viewpoint. The author believes that the contention of various schools of thought is good for the industry, as long as the logic works and the argument is self-consistent. Undoubtedly, the study of blockchain requires the integration of knowledge from many disciplines and industries. This is one of the most complex technologies in the field of knowledge cognition. It runs through many disciplines such as mathematics, physics, philosophy, computer science, cryptography, finance, and law. The value contained in the technology itself is the sublimation of the connection between all the above disciplines. The outbreak of blockchain technology will herald the end of Internet information technology. The concept of IT will also disappear, and a concept called BT (blockchain technology) may lead a new wave in the next 10 years. The author predicts that only by talking about cloud computing and big data based on BT is it not empty talk. Blockchain technology may be the "door without a door" in the field of big data. In the decentralized world of smart contracts, the new trust system exists perfectly in the distributed algorithmIn the world of the Internet, business models are the carriers of value and innovation is fundamental. In the new world of the intelligent Internet of Everything, business models and innovation are no longer important. Everything serves the most fundamental scenario and everything revolves around applications. Services are not incidental needs because they are services in themselves. Blockchain is a service. This is the point of view. In the era of desktop and mobile Internet, fixed mindsets will not be able to adapt to the disruption of new technologies. Please remember that blockchain is not a product of the Internet, it is the gene of the existence of the Internet of Everything, a technology that shoulders the mission of creating a "perfect world". In the decentralized world of smart contracts, the new trust system exists perfectly in distributed algorithms. Different disciplines can find clues and research entrances in epiphany. This is a research subject that is closest to the business world in a laboratory. Now may be the dawn of its outbreak. A unicorn company may be born in every industry. This great company will weaken the concept of business model, but magnify the pain points until every link can be designed and interacted. The author recommends that the chief strategy officer of every blockchain technology application company should be a student engaged in philosophy research. Of course, you may ask why it is not a student who is proficient in algorithms. The author believes that the company that is proficient in algorithms should be the CEO. Because the algorithm will run through all links of the application. Without the drive of capital, any new concept may be stillborn.Internet data shows that the global blockchain investment amount is 1 billion US dollars, but most of it includes investments in Bitcoin startups. The investment amount in pure blockchain technology should not exceed 100 million US dollars, and the investment amount in pure blockchain technology in the Chinese market will not exceed 50 million. Therefore, it is only a matter of time before the investment blowout occurs. The blockchain labs set up by domestic financial institutions are still in their early stages. The Wanxiang Blockchain Lab led by Xiao Feng has a more global vision and promotes the revolution of the blockchain new economy with a larger pattern, which is respectable. The Gaoronghui Capital Blockchain Lab led by the author aims to focus on the research and commercial exploration of industry solutions. I am very happy that the prediction of blockchain applications in 50 major scenarios released by the author before New Year's Day has been recognized and supported by more and more people, and some startups have already planned to enter these fields. In 2016, blockchain has become an unstoppable new industry favoriteRecently, friends in the VC&PE circles in Beijing and Shanghai have frequently asked me about blockchain investment in WeChat Moments. Various institutions are gearing up to go. Without the drive of capital, any new concept may be stillborn. For example, Industry 4.0, which was popular all over the world in 2015, has almost died down now. It was a temporary success, but it cannot last forever. The fundamental reason is that capital is not interested. I hope that such a tragedy will not happen to blockchain. What the insiders are paying more attention to is the development of R3. In my opinion, the R3 model cannot work in China. The fundamental reason is that China's financial environment does not allow it. Therefore, blockchain entrepreneurship should still be a grassroots revolution. If nothing unexpected happens, it may be somewhat similar to the Internet financial entrepreneurship wave that broke out in 2013. The first application scenario of blockchain should still occur in the financial industry, and the most likely one is in the field of Internet finance. The author suggests that if you want to take a more stable path, you should talk less about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency when talking about blockchain. Remember: using virtual currency to subvert legal currency is a great original intention, but the road is difficult! Talking about the application of technology itself is more direct and more powerful. As for which public chain or private chain will run faster and farther in the future, it is unknown. Everything starts easy and ends difficult, and it is not wrong in the end. Be bold to try and fail, embrace the future, and sacrifice is also glorious. I hope that more and more application scenarios will occur. From various indications, blockchain has become an unstoppable new industry favorite in 2016. I am happy to see that more and more platforms, institutions and people are participating in this great revolutionary cause. The box office of "Blockchain", a cross-century blockbuster, is still unpredictable, but the prospects are certainly quite optimistic. The road is long and arduous, and we will continue to explore. |
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