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The market has been very good in the past two days. Bitcoin has led other currencies to rise all the way and successfully broke through the $35,000 mark. The market rebounded, and the long-dormant cryptocurrency circle seemed to become active all of a sudden. Some people even shouted: "The bull market is back!"
Compared with the cryptocurrency speculators, miners are much quieter. Since the policies of the major mining provinces have been implemented, miners have to face their miserable situation, and the most painful crying often does not shed a single tear.
“I entered the market at the peak of the mining machine market and spent 300,000 to buy an S19. In the end, I had to sell it at a loss of 50,000.” Xiao Hu, who bought a mining machine with Jiebei, forced a smile when he received the notice that he could not mine.
He said: "It is not allowed in China, and I don't have the ability to go overseas, so I can only give up!"
At present, there are countless miners like Xiao Hu, and they have only three options: one is to go to sea, the second is to wait, and the third is to get out of the circle!
01
Going out to sea: the uncertain poetry and distance!
How to go overseas? Where to go overseas? Many miners have big questions in their minds and are hesitant about going overseas. In order to help miners understand the policies and conditions of mining farms, many mining companies including Bitmain shared the theme of mining overseas, and the miners who went to the on-site conference also tried their best to find a reliable way out for their mining machines.
"If conditions permit in China, no one would want to leave," an old miner said. However, now these "migrants" who are looking for cheap electricity have to leave their hometowns and start a new journey.
However, there are too many uncertainties overseas. Some mining companies with conditions can continue their "adventure" journey, while some miners are in a dilemma. On the one hand, they are worried about the situation after the mining machines are shipped overseas, and on the other hand, they have no way to withdraw, so they have to bite the bullet and go out to sea.
Judging from the current public information, there are only a few mining companies that have established themselves overseas relatively early. Relatively speaking, they have more comprehensive information and a relatively large industrial layout. The mines are mainly concentrated in Kazakhstan, the United States, Russia and other countries.
A Kazakhstan mine owner told the media that their mine is operating normally and is gradually expanding. It is currently expanding from Kazakhstan to Canada.
He also said: "Kazakhstan is still continuing to build, first building an 80,000-square-meter power plant, and then building a 120,000-square-meter power plant." Regarding the news that Kazakhstan will charge cryptocurrency miners for electricity, he said that this is relatively early information, and as long as the money is added, it will be about 0.15 RMB per kilowatt-hour. At the same time, he also pointed out that Kazakhstan's electricity prices will continue to rise in the future.
Regarding the situation in Canada, he said: "It is currently being promoted. If we can build one with a load of several thousand this year, it will be considered a success." This also verifies what everyone said before, that almost the vast majority of overseas mines are under construction.
At present, there are relatively few successful cases of new overseas expansion. According to media reports, a logistics company in Guangzhou, China confirmed to CNBC that it airlifted 3,000 kilograms (6,600 pounds) of Bitcoin mining machines to Maryland, USA, which is roughly several hundred mining machines. In addition, on June 21, BitMining (formerly 500.com) announced that the first batch of 320 mining machines arrived in Kazakhstan, and the second and third batches, totaling 2,600 mining machines, also arrived in Kazakhstan one after another.
During this period, the computing power of the entire Bitcoin network has increased. According to BTC.com data, the average computing power of the entire Bitcoin network on July 4 was 97.31EH/s, 93.88EH/s, and 87.97EH/s in the past day, week, and 30 days, respectively. This shows that the average computing power of the entire Bitcoin network is increasing. QKL123 data also confirms this. The average computing power of the entire Bitcoin network bottomed out at 68.01EH/s on June 28, and then rebounded to above 90EH/s.
There are several possible reasons for the increase in computing power. An industry insider explained: "One is that some mining machines have been successfully shipped overseas and 'set up camp'. The other is that the 2016 mining model that old miners are familiar with has been put back online."
02
Waiting: Atrophy or die?
If we go back to 2016, what would the situation be like? I won’t go into details here.
However, not long ago, the media saw a post on Zhihu that attracted a lot of attention. Here is a brief share with you. The Zhihu author pointed out very insightfully that many industries, including mining, are also a model in the end:
"In the early stage: let it go and grow wildly; in the middle stage: strengthen control and manage from top to bottom; in the late stage: eliminate most of them, and the rest follow the 'policy' closely, forming a complicated chain of interests."
He pointed out that the current power outage in Sichuan was just a temporary tightening in the mid-term to eliminate those with poor connections. The mining industry will always exist, but after the reshuffle, only those with strong connections will remain.
"Regulation is regulation, but all small and large power plants must have more or less surplus capacity, especially during the flood season. It's not surprising that they are sold secretly. Those who are left in the mining business are mine owners who can get connections or who themselves have connections," he also said.
Regarding the future of the mining industry, he also said: "Overall, shrinkage is certain, and complete death is impossible. Controllability, profit chain formation, and group formation are the only way out for the mining industry."
In this regard, some netizens joked: "Listening to your words is better than reading several months of news!" "Who are you? What is your intention in saying this? Who is behind you?"...
Some netizens also firmly pointed out that as long as the output per unit time is higher than the electricity cost, this industry can continue to survive in the cracks for the time being. But as for group formation, this possibility is almost non-existent. Things that are prohibited at the national policy level are unlikely to expand against the trend.
If you have a few mining machines, then the roar of thousands of mining machines is no joke. Just like some miners who have hundreds or thousands of mining machines and are not in a hurry to use the money, they have to temporarily hide and think about the next step of development.
03
Going out of the circle: profit or loss?
Faced with the sudden changes in the mining industry, some people took a bold step forward, some chose to stay put for the time being, and some were forced out.
As mentioned at the beginning, many people have sold their stocks at a loss. A small mine owner also said that he had more than 30 mining machines, originally priced at around 4,500 yuan, and had to sell them in a package for more than 2,000 yuan.
When the city gate catches fire, the fish in the pond will suffer.
Since the previous policy was released, a large number of second-hand spot mining machines have flooded the market. As a result, mining giants have had to choose to adjust their sales strategies. "For the time being, only forward small currencies and Bitcoin supercomputing servers will be sold, and spot sales will be stopped worldwide."
As for when sales can be resumed, insiders are not sure.
Regardless, some miners have gone from making money by hiding to losing money by hiding. Some people commented: "It's really like watching him build a tall building, watching him entertain guests, and watching his building collapse."
However, what we want to say is, without experiencing wind and rain, where would the poetry and distant places come from?
What's more, due to the skyrocketing price of coins in recent year, the shortage of chips and the slow growth of computing power, most of the miners who have been holding mining machines or have entered the market in 2018 have actually made a lot of money, and smart investors have even sold thousands of mining machines in March this year. This round of market conditions and policies can only be said to have verified their wise strategies and foresight.
Why do some people buy at high prices, while others cash out at high prices? This is really a question worth thinking about! (Lieyun Finance) |
