Investment bank analyst: Although Bitcoin ETF can bring significant benefits, the probability of approval is no more than 25%

According to investment bank Needham and Co, it is not a good thing for Bitcoin followers to be overly optimistic that regulators will approve cryptocurrency trading funds. After all, once regulators give the green light, Bitcoin prices will inevitably rise rapidly (and regulators have never expressed support for Bitcoin).

Currently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is still evaluating whether to approve the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) initiated by the Winklevoss brothers. The SEC has been considering whether to launch a Bitcoin ETF for three years. The Winklevoss brothers also switched from the original Nasdaq to the BATS Global Exchange.

Needham and Co said that once the Bitcoin ETF is announced, it will attract a large amount of capital investment, at least 3亿美元. As of Tuesday afternoon, the total value of Bitcoin in the market has reached $13.8 billion.

This is definitely good news.

The bad news is that Needham analyst Spencer Bogart believes the SEC is very likely not to approve the ETF, with a probability of less than 25% .

We have discussed this topic with many in the industry. We think differently and believe that the chances of a Bitcoin ETF being approved in 2017 are slim to none.

First of all, I want to make it clear that we have no vested interest in the Winklevoss brothers' Bitcoin ETF and do not oppose its launch. It's just that the concerns, uncertainties and skepticism within the SEC, as well as some other fundamental factors, make it difficult for them to approve this ETF.

This is definitely big news for enthusiasts who believe that a bitcoin ETF can be approved and launched on March 11, the deadline set by the SEC.

Bitcoin, a digital currency launched eight years ago, is now accepted by more than 100,000 stores around the world. Its use in the black market and high-profile attacks have repeatedly put the digital currency at the center of controversy.

Bogart wrote:

We believe that the impact of Bitcoin ETF on the price of the currency is always overlooked, but the industry has misjudged the possibility of Bitcoin ETF being approved.

Don't worry

Bogart added that regardless of whether an ETF becomes a reality, Bitcoin will continue to move forward as always. Recently, the price of Bitcoin has exceeded the peak of $1,000, and the increase in the past year has reached 102%.

As of press time, the Winklevoss brothers have not responded to this analysis.

Bogart commented:

In general, although the Bitcoin ETF can bring significant benefits, the possibility of its approval is extremely low.

When the potential demand for Bitcoin in the investment market grows, Bitcoin will not need to rely on ETFs at all. At that time, no matter what the SEC decides, Bitcoin will continue to exist and develop.