Understand the calculation of BCH halving time and its impact in one article

The continuous decline of the crypto market has made many enthusiasts gradually lose confidence in holding cryptocurrencies. They are constantly looking for possible benefits and hoping for a surge in the future. The Bitcoin halving every four years is the biggest benefit in the industry. The consensus in the cryptocurrency circle has been reached that "halving means a bull market." As an alternative to Bitcoin congestion, BCH has the same algorithm mechanism as Bitcoin and its halving time is roughly the same, so the halving of BCH is also expected and favored by many people.

Basic knowledge of blockchain

The time interval for BCH block generation is about 10 minutes, which can also be understood as a theoretical value. However, in the actual mining process, the block generation time is not certain, ranging from one minute to dozens of minutes, because it involves mining probability and luck factors.

BCH has a reward cycle every 210,000 blocks. The first reward cycle is from 0 to 209,999 blocks, the second reward cycle is from 210,000 to 419,999 blocks, the third reward cycle is from 420,000 to 629,999 blocks, and so on.

In the first reward cycle, each block rewards 50 BCH, and the reward is halved in each subsequent cycle, that is, in the second coin production cycle, each block rewards 25 BCH, in the third cycle 12.5 BCH, and so on. Currently, BCH is in its third reward cycle.

The halving time is currently estimated to be April 8 next year

After understanding the above reward cycle, the specific time of the next BCH halving is easier to calculate. We use the block height of 605987 at 0:00 on October 25 as the starting height, and the block height of 629999 as the halving time height. After subtracting the two, we get the number of all blocks that BCH needs to mine from now until the halving, and then divide it by the 10-minute block time to calculate the time required for BCH to the next halving.

The specific equation is as follows:

(halving block height 629999 - current block height 605987) * average block time 10min / number of minutes a day (24h*60min) + current date October 25, 2019 = halving specific time April 8, 2020

One thing worth noting is that the halving time is constantly changing, because the computing power of the entire network is not fixed. If the computing power continues to increase, the block production speed will also increase accordingly, and the halving will come earlier. However, it can all be calculated using the above formula.

In addition, because BCH used the EDA emergency difficulty adjustment algorithm for a period of time in the early days, that is, if the BCH blockchain mined less than 6 blocks within 12 hours, the difficulty would drop by 20%, which made BCH's early block production faster than BTC, so BTC's halving time was later than BCH. Calculated based on the block height on October 25, the next halving of BTC is expected to be on May 5, 2020.

BCH halving impact

Impact on miners: The block reward is halved, and miners will feel it most directly, because in the case of insufficient transaction fees, the BCH miners will directly reduce by half, from (12.5 + transaction fees) BCH to (6.25 + transaction fees) BCH. At that time, if the price of the currency does not improve or the transaction volume is insufficient, the computing power in the network will drop significantly. This is also the source of the consensus that "halving means a bull market."

Impact on BCH price: Perhaps it is a wave of money-making market. Refer to the previous Bitcoin halving and the recent Litecoin halving events, both of which saw a surge around this favorable time point. But at the same time, enthusiasts should also be aware that good news always occurs after the price of the currency rises. It is not the good news that drives the price up, but the rise leads to good news. The arrival of halving is likely to drive the price up, but black swan events are not ruled out, so long-term holding is the safest choice.

Regarding the coin price here, I would like to quote the opinion of Jiang Zhuoer, a well-known BCH supporter. He believes that when the next bull market of BCH reaches its peak, the price will reach 10%~20% of BTC.

Impact on the overall market: Generally, before the bull market starts, there will be mainstream currencies to warm up. For example, before the big bull market in 2017, Litecoin took the lead due to the deployment of the Segregated Witness event, and it soared sharply, igniting the enthusiasm of investors, and then the market was out of control. This time, BCH was halved in advance, and coupled with its special relationship with Bitcoin, BCH is very likely to become the horn of a new round of bull market.