Will Bitcoin finally break $10,000? Here are three things to consider

Original link: Cointelegraph

Source: Cointelegraph Chinese

Editor's Note: The original title is "Can Bitcoin Price Finally Conquer $10,000? Here Are Three Things to Consider"

Market Analysis

Bitcoin ( BTC ) bulls were celebrating the digital asset’s first surge above $10,000 since the 2000s, but the smiles were short-lived as Bitcoin failed to stay above $10,000 long enough.

Is this another short-lived bull run like the one that brought Bitcoin past $10,000 seven times in 2019? Or is this time different?

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360.com

The moment Bitcoin broke through $10,000 in 2019

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

As shown in the above chart, Bitcoin surpassed the $10,000 mark seven times in 2019. But each time, the world’s leading digital asset failed to maintain its price at this level for more than a few days.

During this time, altcoins also began to rally as if they were ushering in the long-awaited “alt season.” But as we later discovered, this was not the case, and there were more unfavorable factors.

So what's different this time? Here are some important factors to consider.

Is 7 the magic number for 2020?

Since Bitcoin broke through $10,000 on February 9, we have seen the leading digital asset rocket above and below this key psychological barrier a full seven times. However, the big difference here is that it occurred over a seven-day period, while in 2019, it took place over a four-month period.

BTC/USD daily hourly chart. Source : TradingView

This suggests that volatility has returned to the cryptocurrency market, but can we expect Bitcoin to cross the $10,000 mark again in the short term? Or is this a long-overdue correction that will cause the price of Bitcoin to plummet further?

In order to determine the possible outcomes, I think there are several factors worth considering at this point.

$675 capital market gap

Fighting for the bulls, we have the fact that the CME closed at $10,475 on Friday, so if Bitcoin maintains its current price of around $9,800, that leaves a gap of around $675 to fill next week.

BTC USD CME Source : TradingView

A similar gap occurred last week, on Monday, February 10. However, that was a short gap, while the next week was a high gap.

If the CME gap is filled, it means that Bitcoin will soar above $10,000 and is expected to rise to $10,500. This will be the eighth time that Bitcoin has broken through $10,000 in 2020, which means breaking the sprint record for the whole year of 2019.

Bitcoin mining difficulty drops for the first time since 2020

The mining difficulty has increased every two weeks this year, and the price of Bitcoin has also been rising.

BTC mining difficulty. Source: BTC.com

However, we are approaching the first time in a year that mining difficulty is predicted to decrease by 2% in nine days.

Just like the price, nothing can go up forever, and mining difficulty is also decreasing. However, while there is no guarantee that this will change Bitcoin’s current price trend, I would feel more optimistic once mining difficulty starts to rise again.

Bullish scenario

BTC/USD daily hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Although Bitcoin experienced a pullback this weekend , it has still managed to hold support within its current ascending channel, which it has been in since early January 2020.

If Bitcoin does not break below support on Monday, then we will see $10,000 as the new support line for Bitcoin, with key resistance in the middle of the channel at $10,500 and the top at $11,500.

Bearish scenario

BTC/USD daily hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Technically, if you look at today’s candlestick chart, Bitcoin has broken the support of the ascending channel. However, unless I see a candle close close below this channel, I will not count it.

Therefore, the current support level is around $9,700. The next support level is the 200-day moving average, which is currently at $8,900. If this support level also fails to hold, then this will usher in a whole new era for Bitcoin, as Bitcoin has never fallen below this level in history.