The suppressed emotions are on the verge of exploding. Will the scenario that happened half a month ago be repeated?

The dull performance of mainstream currencies has improved in the morning trading today, but most currencies have not been able to get rid of the narrow range of sideways fluctuations in recent periods. In the short-term rapid rise, some currencies such as XRP and BNB have indeed pushed up the 24-hour increase to 8% or even more than 10%, but most currencies represented by BTC have only increased by about 2% in the same period. This market performance can hardly be regarded as an effective "breakthrough" signal, and the tangled situation in the first few trading days of this week is still continuing.

BTC

Although BTC's 44-hour 50-period moving average, a key dynamic support repeatedly emphasized in the short term, has been rising over time, and has now officially approached the lower edge of the box where the market fluctuated this week, near 6385, this moving average has a very limited actual impact on the price itself, especially in this special stage where it has been weakly fluctuating in a narrow range and has not been able to effectively touch the edge of the box for at least three days. Therefore, it can only be considered that the market remains above the 4-hour 50-period moving average in a steadily rising posture, which means that the overall market sentiment is strong in the short term, but the moving average cannot temporarily "force" the market to have a truly strong breakout performance.

Although BTC did close with five consecutive small positive lines in the 4-hour chart as of the time of writing, two of the five positive lines are classic positive crosses, and the entity lengths of the remaining three positive lines are also very limited. Therefore, although it seems like a long-awaited continuous rise, it has not yet pushed the currency to truly reach the edge of the small range of 6385-7000 that was repeatedly mentioned in the analysis of the previous trading days. Therefore, the current market has not actually escaped the situation of waiting for this box to break.

For BTC, we haven’t seen such a narrow range of sideways fluctuations since mid-to-early March. The last time a similar situation occurred was from March 9 to March 12, and this time the market ended with a plunge defined as the “March 12 Incident”. Considering that the recent sideways trading has lasted longer than the performance half a month ago, it is reasonable to believe that the market has reached the edge of a “burst”. Once the edge of the box where the sideways trading is located is destroyed, the suppressed market sentiment during the continuous sideways trading is likely to explode, and the market is expected to be greeted by another round of very strong unilateral market.

What is more interesting is that the last time BTC was trading sideways, it was running below a steadily downward 4-hour 50-period moving average, but this time the situation is exactly the opposite. Does this mean that we may be waiting for a long-awaited jump? Of course, this speculation is of limited significance and cannot serve as an effective trading guide. However, if the market can once again confirm that the 6385 support corresponding to the overlap of the lower edge of the box and the key moving average is effective and quickly break through the 7000 integer line, it will not be difficult to further open up space and return to above 8000.

XRP

Let's briefly focus on the more representative second-tier currency XRP. As the absolute leading currency in this morning's rise, XRP's current market is not as strong as imagined. Even after this wave of rising market, XRP has just touched the key resistance position of the half-point of the rebound of the diving market in mid-to-early March. From this perspective alone, XRP is obviously weaker than BTC's current situation, and this short-term rapid rise is mostly a "catch-up follow-up". Therefore, it is not recommended to over-interpret this rise. During the BTC hesitation stage, unless other second-tier currencies have an "explosive" breakout/breakthrough of strong support/resistance, it is not recommended to grab the so-called short-term opportunities of second-tier currencies at will before the BTC directional confirmation is completed. The risks of such ultra-short transactions are extremely difficult to effectively control, and the expected returns are not ideal.