Outlook on the main computing power output models in the next cycle of the industry under systemic risks

Miners, who play a mainstay role in the industry, are facing unprecedented risks. ETH will switch to PoS, and graphics card mining machines will face replacement. Bitcoin price plummeted, and the mining website showed that nearly 70% of mining machines have almost no income, and the first generation of flagship S9 also bid farewell in this baptism.

Mining is the foundation of the industry. Without systemic risks, it is difficult to affect the interests of senior miners. The risks brought by this halving are more inclined to systemic risks. It affects not only speculators, but also major companies that have been deeply involved in the blockchain market. Systemic risks are actually an opportunity to promote industry reform.

We believe that the systemic risk of an industry refers to: the combined impact of the entire industry and the external environment, including policy risks, economic cyclical fluctuation risks, interest rate risks, purchasing power risks, exchange rate risks, etc. Such as a serious crisis in the world economy or a country's economy, continued high inflation, major natural disasters, etc. Specifically for the blockchain industry, there are also quantum computer cracking, double spending, 51 attacks, sudden drop in computing power, network paralysis, etc.

Systemic risk has the characteristics of low probability, catastrophic nature, and individual uncontrollability.

Taking the Dow Jones and BTC mentioned above as examples, when a global systemic risk occurs, there is no difference between a certain stock you bought and BTC. The 34% plunge of the Dow Jones and the 63% plunge of Bitcoin are almost the same for individual losses, and both are catastrophic.

Therefore, as far as the blockchain industry is concerned, the BTC crash indicates that the entire industry is facing systemic risks. The performance of BTC mining machines under this systemic risk: S19 was commissioned to ensure that BTC mining can continue. After the halving, it is expected that except for the S19 series, the rest of the BTC ASICs will be killed or injured.

Hashrate changes:

In the past month, BTC’s computing power has dropped by 31% from its peak, and some miners have reached the shutdown price.

Price changes:

BTC fell 63% from its peak to a low of $3,800.

Current income situation:

The best BTC mining machine S19 Pro, daily net income: 7.2$.

In the context of BTC's plunge, we are more concerned about the window period mining direction. We believe that FPGA mining machines, with their flexibility in algorithm change, will also be the mining machines that will enter the next industry cycle. The current characteristics of FPGA mining machines show that as long as new projects emerge, they can continue to make profits, and they can survive in the face of system risks by dispersing computing power.

FPGA mining machine HNS, daily net income: 4$, FPGA mining machine Trb, daily income: 12$.

In the past month, the computing power of HNS and Trb has increased by 50%. The electricity costs of FPGA miners such as HNS and Trb are relatively low, and have not reached the shutdown price. Among them, HNS can still withstand a 50% drop in the price of the currency. Trb has just entered the bonus period for ordinary miners and can still withstand an 80% drop in the price of the currency.

HNS and Trb decreased by 80% and 62% respectively

Take CKB as an example. Currently, there are only three manufacturers in the market that develop and produce CKB ASIC. Considering the cost recovery, almost no new mining machine manufacturers will join, and these three companies seem to have reached a consensus not to increase the computing power.

In the past month, due to the launch of ASIC, the computing power of CKB has skyrocketed by 4 times, and the non-ASIC mining machines have reached the shutdown price. The original FPGA mining machines have been forced to switch to the new currency HNS or Trb.

CKB price dropped 70% from the highest to the lowest at $0.00238

Even though the CKB price has plummeted, the newly launched ASICs still have extremely high returns, with a daily net income of $33.6. And it is expected that after all ASICs are launched, miners can still withstand a 50% drop in the lowest price.

BTC miners are facing new challenges and opportunities due to fierce competition and a sharp drop in the price of the currency. The best-performing machines in the entire network and the upcoming cheap electricity during the flood season have become their two magic weapons to avoid mining accidents.

The flexibility of FPGA miners is fully demonstrated at this time, and low power consumption eliminates the trouble of electricity bills. How to find new mining coin leaders and squeeze the graphics card market (squeeze the existing old graphics card market with high efficiency, and squeeze the memory-based graphics card mining machine market with new FPGAs) has become the direction they are pursuing.

New mining coin ASICs are concerned about the payback period and building a moat. There are very few players, and they hardly have to worry about the shutdown price. However, when investing in ASICs in small-scale projects, they must consider the payback period and building a moat to protect the continuation of the profits already obtained.

Note: This article and the public account content are provided for reference only.