First of all, we need to know that any digital currency has its application scenario. The application scenario of Filecoin is aimed at the data storage of the Internet. The so-called Filecoin mining machine is actually a server that stores data, and the mining machine is just a figurative name given to it by people. Let’s take a look at the token distribution mechanism of Filecoin. The total number of FIL is 2 billion, and it will never be increased, which avoids the risk of inflation. Among them, 5% was given to the foundation, 10% was ICO, 15% was left to the development team, and the remaining 70% was left to the miners as block rewards, which was halved every six years and decayed by 0.7% per month. It should be noted that Filecoin is not distributed in advance, all TOKENs are in the block and can only be obtained through mining. In addition, the 30% of the foundation, ICO, and development team have a lock-up period, which means that the supply on the market when the mainnet is launched is very small, and it only comes from miners who participated in the public beta in the early stage. A: As mentioned before, the starting price is that the average price of Filecoin's private and public offerings is 3.5 USD, which is 21 RMB. That is to say, the original price of Filecoin after the mainnet launch is 21 RMB. If it is lower than this price, it will be underpriced. However, as we have analyzed before, there is no pre-mining, so there is no dealer. Based on the supply and demand relationship, we can know that the possibility of it underpriced is extremely small. Therefore, 21 RMB is the starting price of Filecoin. B: We all know the pessimistic price. Nowadays, every project claims that it can increase 100 times or 1,000 times. Everyone is numb to this. So let's be conservative. Even for the king of ICO that year, let's only say 10 times. That is to say, next year, the most pessimistic price of a filecoin is 210 yuan per coin. C: The optimistic price prediction model is the most common estimation method on the market, which you can refer to. The total value of the global storage market in 2018 was 210 billion. If the Filecoin network can occupy 10% in two years, the two are multiplied to get the total market value of Filecoin in two years, and then divided by the total circulation of Filecoin in two years, and finally multiplied by twice the bubble, the final price of a Filecoin is 1,800 yuan. So, at present, you know three reference points, the starting point of 21 yuan, the pessimistic point of 210 yuan, and the optimistic point of 1,800 yuan. |
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