Contempt from 'coinless people': Bitcoin price will fall to $100 in ten years

Without taking into account the current and potential advantages of Bitcoin, Harvard professor and former IMF (International Monetary Fund) Chief Economist Kenneth Rogoff asserted that the price of Bitcoin will bottom out at $100 within a decade.

Will Bitcoin hit bottom in 10 years?

In Rogoff's view, it is more likely that Bitcoin will be trading at $100 rather than $100,000 in 10 years.

He told CNBC:

I think in 10 years, Bitcoin will be worth only a fraction of its current price...it's more likely to be $100 than $100,000.

Although it is not advisable to use 10 years to determine the future, even if we boldly assume that his prediction is correct, it only gives us more opportunities to buy Bitcoin.

Rogoff’s prediction is in stark contrast to the view of Matt Hougan, vice president of research and development at Bitwise Asset Management, who believes that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will become a trillion-dollar market.

Only criminals use Bitcoin?  

The former IMF chief economist explained why he made this prediction, even though it was based on a mistaken view:

Basically, if there is no money laundering and tax evasion, the actual application scenarios of Bitcoin as a trading tool will be very small.

Rogoff’s argument, which obscures the advantages of trading Bitcoin, is a favorite of FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) mongers: only criminals use Bitcoin.

Rogoff did not mention technological developments such as the Lightning Network (LN), which enables instant cryptocurrency transactions and provides convenience for merchants and users.

However, he emphasized the large number of illegal uses of Bitcoin transactions - in fact, studies have shown that such transactions account for less than 20% of Bitcoin transactions.

Joint supervision is difficult to achieve  

Rogoff also mentioned that joint regulation by global governments could cause a sharp drop in Bitcoin prices, but he does not think this will happen in the short term.

Global joint regulation is necessary. For example, if the United States and China crack down on Bitcoin, but Japan does not, people can still use it to launder money in Japan.

Governments around the world have expressed different views on cryptocurrencies, and it is impossible for them to come up with a unified regulatory framework - because history has shown that countries rarely agree on anything.