Darknet founder: Bitcoin price 3,000 is not the bottom, 100,000 is not the top

Idealist, drug lord, founder of the dark web, genius programmer, Dread Pirate Roberts... these are the life labels of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the dark web Silk Road.

Billions of dollars of black market bitcoin transactions led to Ulbricht being convicted of a felony and having to serve at least 20 years in prison, with no chance of early parole. However, Ross, who is serving his sentence in federal prison, has not forgotten to communicate with the outside world. His bold prediction of the price of Bitcoin has caused widespread discussion. "3,000 dollars is not the bottom, and 100,000 dollars is not the top" is a true reflection of Ulbricht's bold remarks.

From selling ***** on the Bitcoin dark web, to calling for Bitcoin on Twitter from prison, to the bigwigs in the cryptocurrency circle expressing their support and exempting him from his crimes, it can be said that the most critical stages of Ulbricht's life were spent in the "utopia" of Bitcoin.

So what impact did Ulbricht's bold prediction about Bitcoin have? How did Ulbricht communicate with the cryptocurrency community through Twitter while in prison? Is it possible that he could receive special immunity for his crime?

1. Ross Ulbricht: $3,000 is not the bottom, and $100,000 is not the top

“The price could drop below $3,000.”

On April 12, Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the dark web Silk Road, said on his personal Twitter that BTC may maintain a bearish trend until $3,000. At this stage, Bitcoin supporters will have great panic, and it is also an excellent buying opportunity, just like the early trough period.

In this tweet, Ulbricht also gave a very rigorous argument.

Ross Ulbrich and other inmates serving life sentences for nonviolent rape crimes

Investors also had heated discussions on Ross's views, and many investors were disgusted by his analysis.

For example, Whale Panda, a well-known Bitcoin trader, shared a dynamic image of Squidward, a character from the cartoon "SpongeBob SquarePants," "throwing away his brain," and added a sentence, "This is how I felt when I read that post." Whale Panda used this to imply that the content of Urbucht's article was "brainless."

Similar objections include:

@KimLongBtc: I just withdrew my petition for your acquittal.

@JKwoski: Ross, you are wrong, you are not a #Bitcoin trader or technical analyst.

@Jim_Euclid: Market price predictions based on technical analysis (including Elliott Wave Theory) are great information for short-term trading (1-2 months at most). In the long run, they are widely misleading and potentially harmful advice.

However, there are also supporters of Ross. Twitter user @ClemencyForRoss said that Ross started trading Bitcoin in 2010 when people didn't even know what Bitcoin was. He started studying Elliott Wave Theory twelve years ago. You may not agree with his wave theory analysis, but don't judge this person, especially when he can't answer you in time, because you are a coward.

However, after a few days of public opinion brewing, Ulbricht came back again, this time reiterating that he was still firmly optimistic about Bitcoin from an extremely long-term perspective, and that the bearish sentiment was only short-term.

14 days after the first tweet, on April 26, Ulbricht tweeted again that the sky is the limit for BTC, and that BTC below $20,000 in the future will be cheap. He also clarified his prediction that "the price of Bitcoin may fall below $3,000", saying that he is not pessimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin.

Ross's analysis of Bitcoin price trends in prison

Ulbricht admitted that he could not accurately predict the position of Bitcoin in the next few years or decades, but he emphasized that he was still bullish in the long run and the sky was the limit. Looking back decades later, prices below $20,000 would seem very cheap.

This time, Ulbricht's analysis received support from many fans.

@adrianchilders: So glad you’re still part of the community and discussion, you have more influence than many people sitting alone in their one bedroom apartment.

@MariusFebruary: Thank you so much for your extraordinary and unique perspective, stay positive, I admire you, few people can do that.

According to Ulbricht's statement, "$3,000 is not the bottom, and $100,000 is not the top" is a true reflection of the long-term price of Bitcoin.

In addition, on April 8, Ulbricht also shared his recent situation in prison through Twitter. He said that although he was not sure whether anyone in the prison was infected with the new coronavirus, he felt good.

People may ask, isn't Ross Ulbricht in a heavily monitored federal prison? How did he post as many as 177 tweets from July 2018 to now?

2. Revealed: How to tweet while in federal prison?

"Did Ulbricht use high-tech means in prison?"

This is the first thought that comes to people's mind after seeing Ulbricht tweeting in prison. After all, Ulbricht is a computer expert and the founder of the dark web. It shouldn't be a big problem for him to tweet in prison, right?

Such speculation is not without reason. In August 2018, a report from People's Daily Overseas Network stated that two French hip-hop singers, Booba and Kaaris, were detained by the police after a fight at a Paris airport. Although they were temporarily detained in prison, netizens were surprised to find that they were still active on social networks and shared their lives in prison.

In fact, it is not uncommon for prisoners to have mobile phones in prison in French prisons. Mobile phones, which should be banned, are passed around and used on a large scale among prisoners in prisons.

So did Ulbricht, who was in prison in the United States, also use the same method: secretly bringing a mobile phone into the prison and then waiting for an opportunity to tweet?

The Alameda County jail where Ulbricht is being held

Of course not.

Alameda County Jail in California is a prison for serious criminals. It has the best security measures and strict management system in the United States. It is impossible for prisoners to bring mobile phones into the prison.

As discussed by Reddit users in the subreddit “Ross Ulbricht has a twitter account from prison. Verified!”, Ulbricht’s tweets were not his own.

At the same time, we can also see some clues in the authoritative reports of well-known media and infer how Ulbricht actually tweeted.

In a 2018 CCN report titled “Silk Road Founder Ross Ulbricht Opens Twitter Account,” there is a description:

A few hours later, Ulbricht tweeted that he had received nine pages of comments on the petition and had seen all the tweets and attention. He was "deeply moved" by the response and said "this is the beginning of communication with the outside world."

Note that the word "mail" was used in the CCN report, which means mail or letter, which is different from "e-mail". This also shows that Ulbricht conveyed his views and opinions outside the prison through paper letters, and then his relatives or friends posted these views on Twitter.

Everyone's comments on Ulbricht's tweets were also delivered to the federal prison in the form of letters, and then forwarded to Ulbricht for review.

This is also the reason why pictures of Ulbricht's handwritten version are often circulated in the outside world. Such a communication method is bound to slow down the speed of information transmission. A tweet by Ulbricht in 2018 can also confirm this.

"Thank you guys, you're awesome," Ulbricht said in a tweet on August 10, 2018, followed by a handwritten reply letter dated August 3, 2018, but posted seven days later.

Therefore, we can reasonably infer that it usually takes about 7 days for Ulbricht to write the letter in prison and then publish it on Twitter. It also takes about the same amount of time for the information to be compiled and sorted from outside the prison, then mailed into the prison, and then read by Ulbricht. As we saw in the previous article, from Ulbricht’s tweet on April 12 predicting that the price of Bitcoin would fall to $3,000, which led to condemnation from the entire network, to his second tweet on April 26, there was exactly a 14-day difference in between, which is the time it takes for information to be transmitted back and forth inside and outside the prison.

Of course, this isn't the first time a highly-publicized inmate has opened a personal account on Twitter.

In 2010, Chelsea Manning leaked 700,000 military documents to WikiLeaks. She was sentenced to 35 years in prison in 2013 and was imprisoned in the highest security military prison in the United States. Chelsea Manning also opened a Twitter account in 2015. She told the information to a third party outside the prison over the phone, and the third party posted the information on Manning's Twitter.

At present, based on Ulbricht's powerful influence, more and more American people have begun to publicly call for Ulbricht's release. So is it possible for them to succeed?

3. The call for amnesty is growing, and the big names in the cryptocurrency circle are joining in the support

On the Change.org website, a petition for a pardon for Ulbricht has collected more than 300,000 signatures, up from 250,000 in December 2019. The collection of signatures began in July 2018, and these signatures call on President Trump to commute Ulbricht's sentence.

In fact, blockchain industry giants including Litecoin founder Charlie Lee, Bitcoin Jesus (Roger Ver) and billionaire Tim Draper (Tim Draper) have all supported pardoning Ulbricht.

On December 5, 2019, cryptocurrency venture capitalist Tim Draper expressed support for Ulbricht, the convicted founder of the dark web Silk Road. In an interview, he called for the release of Ulbricht, and Tim Draper made it clear that "get him out of jail, we need entrepreneurs like him."

In July 2018, Charlie Lee tweeted that he learned about Bitcoin from the dark web Silk Road, that Ulbricht should not be sentenced to life imprisonment, that he had joined the petition for the release of Ross Ulbricht, and called on everyone to join him.

Ross Ulbricht has spent six years in prison and has long repented. As early as 2015, he pleaded guilty to the US government and begged for leniency:

"I have squandered my youth, I know you must take my middle age, but I beg you to let me spend my old age in peace," he wrote. "Please leave me a light at the end of the endless dark tunnel, for my health, so that I can dream of a better life after a long sentence, please give me a little forgiveness, and in order to complete my self-redemption in the free world before reporting to the Creator, please give me a chance."

So is it possible that Ross could be pardoned?

Chelsea Manning, mentioned above, was sentenced to 35 years in prison for leaking a large amount of confidential information of the US military. In January 2015, three days before Obama left office, he signed a pardon order, reducing Manning's 35-year sentence to seven years. In May 2017, Chelsea Manning served her sentence and was released from the Fort Leavenworth Military Prison in Kansas.

Obama has such power because Article II of the U.S. Constitution grants the president unlimited pardon power, and no government department, including Congress, has the right to interfere. Therefore, as long as President Trump is convinced by public opinion, Ross Ulbricht will be commuted.

As Tim Draper has called for, I hope Ross Ulbricht will be released from prison as soon as possible. The blockchain's "utopia" needs such talents.