Shang Silin, President of Mars Cloud Mining: The first round of Filecoin is about to enter the finish line

On July 3-4, 2020, the 2020 IPFS Ecosystem and Distributed Storage Industry Summit was grandly opened in Hangzhou, hosted by POW POWER and Interstellar Vision IPFNEWS, co-hosted by Canaan Blockchain and Diancun Technology, co-organized by Maike Storage, Computing Power Interconnection, Net Storage Technology, and Yunhu Computing Power; Mars Cloud Mining, Hengtong Cloud, TOPLOONG, Binhe Cloud Intelligence, Xianhe System, Firefly, Shensuan Mining Pool, Xingmai Storage, Xi'an Lingdong Computer, Galaxy Storage Pool, gate.io, KuCoin, Math Wallet, ChainX, Crust, arweave.org, Renren Mine, BitMart, and WBF strategic collaboration, and sponsored by the IPFS1475 exclusive dinner! Industry leaders from the fields of IPFS, blockchain, etc. met here to discuss the development path of the new track of IPFS ecology and distributed storage in the new era.

Shang Silin, partner of Mars Blockchain and president of Mars Cloud Mining, delivered a keynote speech at the event: The first round of Filecoin race is about to enter the finish line. The selected key points are as follows:

Hello everyone, before I start my formal speech, I have a small feeling. I have participated in many industry conferences, and I have also organized conferences with more than 2,000 people in Silicon Valley, New York, and Beijing. I think the scale of this conference is not as large as the previous ones, but from what I have seen, most of the people were here to attend the conference and communicate throughout the two days.

I remember the second phase test live broadcast with Mars Finance on May 15th. It was 6 am Beijing time, and we started the live broadcast at 5 am. At that time, I thought, will anyone watch it at 5 am? But there were more than 300 people online during the live broadcast. When the live broadcast ended at noon, we were live broadcasting on Bilibili, and it had already rushed to the homepage of Bilibili’s learning channel. It was not officially recommended, but natural growth. At that time, I said that the popularity of the Filecoin market, the diligence and eagerness to learn of the practitioners in the Filecoin market all touched me deeply.

Before I talk about this topic, I just did a sharing yesterday. I will simply repeat my views, which are also the three reasons why I am optimistic about Filecoin. First, its architecture and vision are big enough, the track is long enough, and the potential energy and wealth effect accumulated continuously will become bigger and bigger. On this basis, I think the vision of Filecoin's decentralized storage network does not need to be elaborated. In the past two days, I have listened to many guests talking about it. The vision is big enough, which is also the possibility that it can become the same level as Bitcoin.

Second, the power of building consensus. In the past two years, the cumulative investment in the Filecoin track has exceeded 10 billion RMB. This morning, 20 billion RMB was mentioned, and some people mentioned 10 billion US dollars earlier. Regardless of the number, the scale of more than 10 billion is there. It can be said that there has never been a project like Filecoin that has gathered a huge amount of capital before it went online. Behind the capital is consensus. Bitcoin and EOS do not have this. Filecoin is unprecedented, which shows that its story, logic, and vision can gather the consensus of the largest number of people.

Third, the timing of the launch. What is this timing? The entire blockchain has experienced a two-year bear market, and a bull market is brewing after the Bitcoin halving. With Filecoin, these three driving forces will complement each other and achieve a bull market in the blockchain market in the next two years.

How do you view this market now? On May 15, the day of the live broadcast, Mars Cloud Mining officially opened the pre-sale of Filecoin cloud computing power, and then officially launched sales on June 11. In the 20 days since then, nearly a thousand investors have become the top investors of Filecoin computing power. I would like to talk about my views on this market, including comparing Bitcoin mining with some Filecoin mining situations.

First of all, let me make a conclusion. The first round of Filecoin is about to reach the end. Similar to the previous Hundred Regiments War, at least hundreds of mining machine manufacturers have raced on this track in the past two years. Of course, some people think that this Hundred Regiments War is very chaotic. There are all kinds of concepts and models of mining machines, including many that have been sold and delivered. At present, most people may not be able to mine coins. I think this situation, which is dynamic and a bit chaotic, is about to reach the end of a stage. After many rounds of Filecoin testing, I think the TOP10 mining machine manufacturers have emerged in everyone's mind. It is not based on a certain time point. If you look at the first test, the second test and the upcoming main network, I think everyone will have a good idea of ​​its sustainable development capabilities.

After the mainnet is launched, the mining efficiency of different mining machine manufacturers and different computing power brands is clear at a glance. The first phase of the mining competition based on mining machine manufacturers has basically come to an end. Including technology leaders, leading in algorithm optimization, I think capable manufacturers have a 3-6 month leading window period. Of course, for teams with sustained combat capabilities, this window period is enough to maintain a continuous lead. Next, I think Filecoin will quickly enter a large cluster, resource-based intensive development stage, which has a centralized trend of Bitcoin's development for ten years.

To make a simple analogy, we calculated that the value of new Bitcoin mining machines this year is about 10 billion, roughly estimated to be around 14 billion RMB; we also talked with many peers in the first year of the launch of the Filecoin mainnet. Some people believe that there were 50,000 to 80,000 mining machines when it was first launched. If it is put into a one-year cycle, some people speculate that it is just over 100,000, and the highest is 200,000. Intel and AMD make a rough estimate, and the scale is at least more than 10 billion. This means that once Filecoin is launched, it is possible to reach an investment of the same magnitude as Bitcoin. If we follow today's Filecoin futures price of 22 US dollars, even if the investment is 12 billion, the return will be returned in about half a year. Of course, this depends on market changes, and this is just a current guess.

Bitcoin mining pools are highly concentrated. It is not the time for a technician to mine with his own desktop computer. The top 4 mining machine manufacturers and the top 10 mining pools occupy the vast majority of the market share. Our TOP5-10 also occupy most of the effective computing power. This is just a certain node. If you run through several tests, including the upcoming big miner test, you can see that the top effective computing power nodes have a very obvious advantage. In essence, in addition to the popularity of this market, the mining logic itself is destined to the trend of computing power technology. Just like what Alibaba Cloud said just now, storage must rely on long-term stable and highly reliable operation, which is different from the Bitcoin algorithm that relies on muscle show and great strength to create miracles.

Therefore, from the perspective of this consensus mechanism, it requires more centralization, including specialization and continuous and stable operation capabilities. Needless to say, the price of mining machines on the market ranges from tens of thousands of yuan to 400,000 yuan. We think that a very efficient model is about 240,000 yuan, but the threshold is relatively high for ordinary investors, and the operation and maintenance environment requirements are very high. I have been to dozens of Bitcoin mining farms. Frankly speaking, Bitcoin mining farms and Filecoin's so-called mining farms are several orders of magnitude different. It only requires simple ventilation and operation and maintenance. Filecoin's mining farm is an IDC computer room, which is about the same level as Alibaba Cloud or Amazon. The requirements for high stability, high operation and maintenance capabilities, and bandwidth are very high. Including several rounds of Filecoin testing, it can be seen that the algorithm improvement capability requirements are also very strong. Filecoin directly enters the top mining capability algorithm, which is higher than Bitcoin.

The mining machines, mining farms, and mining pools mentioned earlier can be switched freely in Bitcoin. The three can be switched, exited, and entered freely. This is Bitcoin mining, but Filecoin mining machines are not like this. The current business form of the mining machine manufacturer's cluster is a mining pool, and the geographical location and physical environment determine a certain place. The cluster of a mining farm is also a mining pool and the operation and maintenance of a mining machine manufacturer. It is a combination of the three. When 1475 spoke this morning, they wanted to open this up, and all computing power can be freely accessed and exited. This is very good, but it takes some time to work hard. Whether the free access to computing power is so high in an environment requires further efforts and observation. At present, this is the case. It is a higher improvement of the three-in-one business form.

Filecoin is born with its own financial system. As you know, although the economic model and pledge ratio have not yet been released, it may be 40% or even higher. This determines the liquidity of Filecoin. As for futures and hashrate coins, I won’t talk about them. Financial derivatives are an affiliated market. If the pledged coins are calculated at 40%, the daily pledge value may be as high as tens of millions, or more than 10 million or 20 million.

What role does cloud computing play in such a highly centralized and high-threshold market? First, equal rights in the mining industry. I think it can be synchronized with the cooperation of mining machine manufacturers, maintain an open platform, and give individual investors the opportunity to share rewards and enjoy dividends in the next three months. The second is the free withdrawal of computing power. For example, in the three-in-one mode, the flow of computing power in and out is actually freer. There is also a very important point. Everyone must remember the original intention of Filecoin. It is not just a distributed one, but mainly decentralized. Every miner has the gene of distribution and decentralization. Even if the flow is not so free, the owner of computing power and the owner of mining machines will make the decentralized characteristics more obvious. At the same time, more miners will enter to make a big consensus. We know that there are many small mining coins now, and the prices are very high and fast, but in fact they are controlled by several large miners. Bitcoin also has such signs. Several large core miners actually occupy most of the computing power. But cloud computing must play a decentralized role in it.

Now, everyone has noticed that traffic platforms such as media and exchanges are launching cloud computing power, large and small exchanges are launching it, traditional large miners are also selling their own cloud computing power, and the derivatives market is also merging together. It turns out that the so-called traditional currency circle, mining circle, primary market, secondary market derivatives market are all merging at a high speed, and cloud computing power used to be the configuration of this industry and a subordinate, but in the process of integration of this circle, it will gradually play the role of central connector and fermenter.

As you all know, we started with Mars Finance, serving over 3 million C-end users. We are also a community-based ecosystem with over 800 communities of our own, not counting communities with external cooperation. The Baidu Index ranks first in the industry. We also have over 7,000 Mars authors and our own product matrix. From the perspective of miners, Mars Finance provides information and decision-making, Mars Trading Master provides mainstream transactions, and Consensus Labs and Coco Finance are our partners. Our investors include IDG, PanCity, Ceyuan, OKEx, Huobi Capital, Binance, etc., all of whom are our shareholders.

Since its establishment in February this year, Mars Cloud Mine has attracted more than 1,000 Bitcoin miners and more than 1,000 Filecoin miners. We have APP and web version, and the accounts are also connected with Coco Finance. We have just talked about our own layout timetable, so I won’t talk about it again. At present, we have launched the top 1475 computing power and mining machine products, as well as the computing power products of Spacetime Cloud. We may launch another top computing power product next week. In other words, Mars Cloud Mine only speaks to the top mining machines and investors. We select the top companies in the current investment market. At the same time, we also provide some guarantees to investors. For example, if 1475 cannot mine coins, a full refund can be made. If the first year cannot make back the cost, we can make back the cost for free in the second year. This is the first time that we have proposed that the second-year renewal fee for our Spacetime Cloud product shall not exceed 50% of the first year.

We have also made some explorations in the Bitcoin market. The 0.19 fast return package is the fastest return on investment in the entire network. Because of the decline in the price of the currency, Bitcoin mining is in a relatively low-profit state, but on the other hand, because of this state, the mining machine is also at a historically low level, which is the best time to invest. So, first, we provide a one-stop service, and second, an open platform, a multi-currency platform, including Bitcoin, and emerging mining currencies. We remain open and are not an agent of a certain company. We only select the top mining machines and computing power products for customers, including Bitmain, Canaan, etc. We remain open and promote the upgrading of our products at the same time.

We welcome everyone here to join us in building a win-win Filecoin ecosystem. We are an open platform and remain open to any partner.