This article was originally written by IPFS Force Zone Many people have dismissed complex and creative solutions as not being simple enough, but society is complex, and humans are complex. For us, solving complex problems with simple solutions is not a good idea. ——Elinor Ostrom, 2009 Nobel Prize winner in Economics Last Friday (August 28), the official released the latest Filecoin economic white paper "Creating the Filecoin Economy". Its design seems to make the conditions for miners more and more difficult. It is estimated that the official also has far-reaching concerns about it. At the same time, some investors in the market are deeply anxious. This report serves as an in-depth interpretation of this. This article is the fourth in a series of articles on pledge and income, following "Must-read dry goods before the space race" , "How much FIL do you need to pledge to achieve profitability?" and "The most comprehensive interpretation: 1T computing power, how much FIL income can you get in a year?" . The reasoning process can be reviewed in the previous articles. This article will directly give the reasoning conclusion based on the latest economic white paper content. Article Summary : This article will interpret the new adjustments and precautions proposed in "Creating the Filecoin Economy", and calculate based on the space race that a single T of computing power needs to be pledged on the first day of approximately 34.76 FIL, and as the computing power of the entire network increases, the expected return on the subsequent 20 days of added computing power will gradually decrease. 1. Important Adjustments to the Token Economy in “Creating the Filecoin Economy” Figure 1, Economic Model, Source: Creating the Filecoin Economy, 2020-8-28 Throughout the white paper “Creating the Filecoin Economy”, there are three points about the token economy that have been adjusted and tentatively determined: Miners' income has shrunk by 300 million coins. The miners' income has been adjusted from 70% to 55%, that is, 1.4 billion coins have been adjusted to 1.1 billion coins, of which 4.75 million (hard cap) of space race rewards are paid by miners' 55%. The exact use of the 15% (300 million coins) removed from the miners' income has not yet been determined, and will ultimately be decided by community voting; The financing portion was adjusted from 10% to 7.5%. Of the 10% of the financing portion, actual investment accounts for 7.5% (150 million tokens), and the remaining 2.5% (50 million tokens) is planned for ecological development, which is also an undetermined portion; The baseline standard is determined. The baseline is 1EiB when the network is launched in the first year, and it will grow at a rate of 200% every year, and it needs to reach 3EiB at the end of the first year. Because the baseline standard changes with the growth of the computing power of the entire network, the entire network will reach 3EB in advance before the normal 6-year halving supply can be restored; The space race rewards come from part of the mining income, and the 350 million pieces have not yet been determined. The 4.75 million Fil originally expected to be distributed by the space race will be distributed by the foundation, and now it has been decided to distribute it from the 1.1 billion pieces among the miners. At the same time, the allocation of early private investors has been reduced by 50 million pieces, which has reduced the selling pressure in the early stage. There are still 2.5% of the remaining early private equity and 15% of the miners' income, a total of 350 million pieces, the final use scenario has not yet been determined, and there are certain risks. The 4.5% of the revenue is for code contributors. Of the 15% of the Protocol Labs team, 4.5% is planned to be distributed to Protocol Labs and code contributors, which is equivalent to feedback to early code contributors.
Regarding the mortgage part: Pre-mortgage is divided into computing power mortgage and transaction mortgage. The computing power mortgage is the expected income of the first 20 days + 30% of the circulation; the transaction mortgage is 5% of the circulation; Add 20 days of profit mortgage. The mortgage part is increased, which increases the expected profit by 20 days. However, after reaching 3EB in the first year, the mortgage ratio is determined to be 30%+5%. Before that, the actual amount will be less than the expected 35%; The post-mortgage period is determined. The post-mortgage is consistent with the previous test network: 20-day freeze period, 180-day linear release; The unreleased part of post-mortgage for mining can be used as pre-mortgage start-up funds. On September 3, the official said in the online meeting of the economic model: In addition to the initial start-up funds, the main network allows the unreleased block rewards to be used for pre-mortgage.
In general, the income of miners has decreased, and a total of 350 million FIL has been reserved (15% for mining and 2.5% for investors). The usage scenario has not yet been determined, and there may be certain risks in this use. At the same time, the initial pledge, that is, the pledge is expected to be 30% of the first 20 days + circulation. For the early stage, because there are fewer FILs circulating in the market, the proportion of the first 20 days is expected to be larger, and the circulation will be larger in the later period, and the 30% of the later circulation will account for a larger proportion. So overall, what is the single T mortgage cost for us miner investors? 2. Basics and Adjustments: Recalculation of Supply Based on the Space Race (To see the conclusion, jump directly to Part 3) The most comprehensive interpretation: How much FIL can be earned in a year with 1T computing power? has proposed some scenarios, mainly to predict the main network situation based on the development law of Testnet 2.0. This time, the law of space competition is summarized, and the prediction of future laws may be more appropriate. What are the main adjustments: The simple supply and supply rules below the testnet 2.0 baseline are adjusted to the supply rules of the space race baseline (data is used to seek rules at the height of the space race 10242); The average vote luck value is quoted based on the number of votes for each block height; Combined with the growth law of the total network computing power during the space race.
As with the previous algorithm, we know that the simple supply formula for a single block reward is 330000000×EXP(-1.09897764548444E-07×((T×2880+1)-1))×(1.09897764548444E-07)/5)(where T is the number of days), and then the regression equation of the baseline part is formulated to predict the part that does not reach the baseline standard. The most appropriate one is 0.1586×T -0.041 (R² =0.9979, T is the number of days). After testing, it conforms to the subsequent short-term rules (which should be a curve). Figure 2, left is the space race data, the middle is the baseline supply regression equation, and the right is the prediction result that meets the equation. Source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-31 According to the above formula, the supply reward for each block in a month is as follows:
Figure 3. Simple supply and baseline supply first month supply chart, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-09-01 At the same time, in the space race, there will be multiple block nodes and different lucky votes at different heights. In this regard, the author proposed an average rule before the height of 10242, and found that on average each height will have 4.23911741214058 times the number of blocks (including nodes and lucky votes). Then the total amount of rewards for the day is about {330000000×EXP(-1.09897764548444E-07×((T×2880+1)-1))×(1.09897764548444E-07)/5）+（0.1586×T -0.041）}×4.23911741214058×2880 (T is the number of days). 3. What is the current cost of online mortgage? Considerations on initial pledge = expected 20-day return + 30% of the circulating supply If the first day develops like the space race, and assuming the growth rate and block reward of 10PB daily computing power growth are the same as the space race, combined with the above simple supply and baseline supply formula, it can be calculated that the expected 20-day profit pledge is 354,954 FIL; at the same time, 30% of the circulating market needs to be pledged. According to Figure 4, it is estimated that about 343,200 will be released every day. How many tokens do you need to pledge in total? Figure 4: Expected first-day 10PB 20-day revenue is 354,954 Fil, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-0902 The expected income in 20 days is 354,954 FILs. The 10PB total network computing power is equivalent to 34.6634910421931 FILs required for mortgage for a single T. The circulation mortgage after the mainnet is launched will quote a reference coefficient. In order to reach the network baseline, the mortgage coefficient will be less than 30%, that is, the mortgage quantity formula Power/MAX (totpower, baselinepower) × 30% × Totalcriculatingsupply. According to the above conditions, the total network computing power on the first day is 10PB, the initial MAX (totpower, baselinepower) is 1EB, and Totalcriculatingsupply is the number of tokens released on the first day below. Substitute the data, when T computing power mortgage is 1T/1EB×30%×3446023.5921≈0.098998144 pieces. Figure 5. Daily release of the development team, foundation, and investors. Source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-31 So the total initial pledge = expected 20-day return + 30% of the circulating supply is 34.7624891859858 FIL. Assuming a constant increase of 10PB per day, the predicted 20-day revenue for one year: gradually decaying Figure 6. The total mortgage cost of a single T increased by 10PB computing power per day. Source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-31 In general, because the overall income will increase at first, it will gradually decrease after meeting the benchmark network conditions (in line with the 6-year halving attenuation law). However, because the overall computing power of the entire network has increased, the shared income has decreased. Therefore, the expected 20-day mortgage income (for the constant increase of 10PB per day) will gradually decrease from 34.76 on the first day to 17.42 on the 365th day. 4. Speculations behind the economic model: a great and ambitious implementation plan Overall, the token economic model is not very optimistic, whether for service providers or miner investors. For miner service providers, this white paper also mentions strict mechanisms such as sector failure fees, detection fees, and termination fees to ensure the normal operation of the network; for miner investors, they need to add investment mortgage fees. The official forecast may be concerned about: to ensure the rapid growth of the network to avoid early miners from making profits as soon as possible, slow down the wealth creation effect, slow down the fork that comes with the synergy effect, and allow Filecoin to accumulate deeper applications. After the real application is established, the forked and diverted projects cannot directly compete with Filecoin. At present, because the data to be used to find the baseline network is small, there may be some deviations. In fact, exponential growth is more reasonable. Whether it will be reasonable in the future remains to be seen; At the same time, the daily computing power growth of 10PB increases the total mortgage cost of a single T every day. The circulation part of the graph is a forecast data, which will have a certain deviation. It is not the actual accurate value and is for reference only. In addition, the 5% of the transaction mortgage was not converted into the calculation in the early stage, because the actual generation time of the deal was not determined, so the block was temporarily set to 0; The above is summarized based on the economic laws of the space race. There will be certain deviations from the actual mainnet launch. It is for research and analysis only and does not constitute an investment judgment. Statement: This article is an original article from IPFS Force District. The copyright belongs to IPFS Force District. It may not be reproduced without authorization. Violators will be held accountable according to law.
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