Filecoin went online 12 hours ago: retail investors started to arbitrage at the peak, and the official market-making fork coin was quietly launched

After Filecoin went online, it fluctuated between 20 and 200 US dollars. On the morning of the 16th Beijing time, the price began to stabilize at 60-70 US dollars. Although it has not exceeded Bitcoin and Ethereum at the current price, it has become the third largest cryptocurrency with a market value of more than 100 billion.

However, the circulating market is too small, and the funds circulating in the market may not exceed 2 million FIL (100-200 million US dollars), so this price is not a reference for the time being and may change dramatically at any time. Considering the 20 US dollars of FIL6, the final market value of about 40 billion US dollars is a reasonable range, but it will also become the top five cryptocurrencies.

At the beginning of the launch, the first hot topic was that a retail investor used FIL to arbitrage more than 200,000 US dollars on Huobi within 5 minutes, and the screenshots were forwarded crazily in major groups.

At the beginning of FIL's launch, it was doubtful whether there was such a circulating volume, but on the other hand, Huobi did trade sideways at $50 for a few minutes. Only God knows whether this widely circulated picture is true or not.

At the beginning of the launch, the spot FIL should only come from the linear unlocking of a small number of miner reward coins, but most of these coins are used for mining and staking, and very few flow into exchanges. The spot that Gate had previously promoted was only 13,000 coins.

Due to the small circulation, we can see that OKEx, which first announced the listing of FIL, does not have any coin-to-coin trading. The first mainstream exchange to list FIL was Huobi, followed by Binance, and the main trading is also on these two exchanges.

The second hot topic is the so-called official "market crash".

At 2 a.m., netizens discovered that 800,000 FILs were transferred to Huobi, questioning whether it was an official dump. The official responded that 1.5 million FILs were transferred to various exchanges, not just Huobi, and were mainly used to provide liquidity to an independent market maker, and this strategy was announced in 2017. It can be expected that as the popularity increases, more official market-making funds will be available in the future.

It can be seen that more than 50% of the market-making funds flowed into Huobi, so Huobi currently has the largest spot volume, and Huobi's price can be used as the benchmark for the current price. Binance announced that it will launch contract trading, and OKEx also launched contract trading early. It is expected that the main battlefield may shift from spot to contract.

Huobi's main users are Chinese, which also proves from the side that FIL's investors and followers are mainly concentrated in China. Wu said that the core reason is still the promoters, refer to Distributed Bao Erye Du Jun Wang Feng: China's Four Major Promoters of Filecoin/IPFS (POC Series 2).

The third point to watch is the price trend.

Early investors unlock 351,000 FILs every day, and 133,000 FILs are needed for daily mortgage. Since the project has been delayed for a long time and the early value is too high, investors will have a strong motivation to sell. The demand for early purchase investment is higher than the early circulation, but as the private placement is released and the mining coins are mined, the price is expected to gradually fall. FIL6 futures on Gate have fallen to $20, which fully demonstrates investors' expectations for this project, so do not chase high spot prices.

At the same time, Filecoin’s ideal is to implement the decentralized storage of IPFS. If the price is too high, it will not only raise the cost of miners, but also the cost of storage customers and all ecological participants. This is not the official intention. Therefore, it is very likely that the price will peak at $200.

There are also views that early miners are not very willing to buy coins for pledge. Because as the reward coins, FIL6 and block rewards of the space race are all released, the circulation will gradually increase, and it is a consensus that the price will drop. Early purchases of FIL have undoubtedly become "suckers", so most miners choose to reduce the sealing speed, reduce the pledged coins, and abandon junk data.

(Picture from Golden Finance)

The fourth highlight is the forked coin.

On the 15th, everyone discovered that FIC (Filecash), a forked coin led by MIX Group, quietly landed on the MIX exchange. Its current market value of $0.7 is far from FIL, but if it develops steadily in the future, it may become an important concept coin of FIL. Although FIC has been promoted several times, it seems to be relatively low-key, and it still depends on the support of the core institutions in the future.