Bitcoin breaks through 100,000 yuan, can you still buy it?

According to historical data, there were only 17 days in history when the price of Bitcoin was higher than this, and all of these 17 days were within the month from December 7, 2017 to January 10, 2018. And in this month, Bitcoin reached the peak of the previous bull market at $19,926 on December 17, which was the tenth day after it exceeded $15,000 for the first time.

Seeing this, many investors can't help but have such an association: In this market, will Bitcoin also reach its peak in a relatively short period of time after exceeding US$15,000?

I don't think so, because I think the market trend is still in the early stage so far, not even in the mid-term.

Let’s look at the following picture:

This is the trend chart of Bitcoin in the middle and late stages of the last bull market. There are two price points worth noting: one is $911 on January 1, 2017, and the other is $5,950 on November 3, 2017.

Before the last bull market, the lowest value of Bitcoin was $199 on January 18, 2016.

Therefore, from the historical data, the overall trend of Bitcoin in the last bull market can be roughly divided into three stages:

The first stage was from January 18, 2016 to December 30, 2016. After about two years, Bitcoin slowly recovered from the bottom of $199 to $911, and the price of the currency increased by 4.6 times.

The second stage was from January 1, 2017 to November 3, 2017. After 10 months of consolidation, Bitcoin rose from $911 to $5,950, a 6.5-fold increase in price.

The third stage was from November 3, 2017 to December 17, 2017. In just over a month, the price of Bitcoin rose from US$5,950 to US$19,926, a 3.3-fold increase.

History will not simply repeat itself, but it will basically follow a similar rhythm. Any bull market basically includes three stages: recovery and consolidation, steady growth, and crazy explosion. This was the case with the last Bitcoin bull market, and it will be the same in the next round.

Let’s take a look at the trend chart of Bitcoin in this market.

From the above figure, we can see that after the last bull market, Bitcoin fell to its lowest point of $3,236 on December 16, 2018. From $3,236 to the current $15,000, it took nearly two years, and Bitcoin has only increased by 4.6 times, which is basically equivalent to the first stage of the last bull market.

If we judge what stage Bitcoin is in based solely on this increase, it would be a bit too rigid. We can also judge the current market situation and the approximate stage it is in from another perspective: that is, the overall market atmosphere.

In the last round of bull market, starting from the end of 2016, the entire market began to be engulfed by ICO and gradually began to heat up. After a year, this craze reached its peak. Therefore, the market was in an extremely excited state throughout 2017. Because of this excited state, the market could reach a climax. Without this excitement, the market would not be able to reach a climax.

However, our market is obviously not in such an excited state now. Not only that, but also after experiencing several major events in recent times (such as being trapped at high levels in DeFi projects and being unable to withdraw assets due to exchange incidents), many investors are still in a state of anxiety, so the entire market needs a lot of reassurance.

Therefore, from many perspectives, I think the current market is still far from the climax that many investors expect. Even if there is a bull market in this round of market, I think it will most likely not happen until next year. Based on past experience, there may be some opportunities for corrections in this process, but it is difficult to predict when this correction will occur and how much it will be.

So what should investors do in the current market situation?

First of all, is it still appropriate to invest in Bitcoin now? I think it depends entirely on the investor's own expectations for the future.

Some people believe that the price of Bitcoin can reach 100,000 US dollars in this round of market. If investors have such optimistic expectations, they can continue to invest now.

But I hold a more cautious view on this round of market, and I think it will probably rise to the range of 20,000 to 50,000 US dollars. Therefore, I stopped investing in Bitcoin after it exceeded 10,000 US dollars.

Compared with Bitcoin, I think Ethereum still has some value to buy. The fixed investment price I have always recommended to everyone is within 400 US dollars. As of the time of writing, the price of Ethereum is 456 US dollars. This price has exceeded 400 US dollars, but not much. Therefore, if investors who are completely short in the early stage, I suggest that you can take out a certain amount of funds to buy some Ethereum, because Ethereum will keep up with the pace of Bitcoin in the future.