[Contract Daily] The institutional push for BTC has entered a rest period, and the cryptocurrency market may usher in a rotation market

Market Overview:

As the impact of $16,000 failed, BTC began to fluctuate widely over the weekend, with the spot market falling to below $14,500, but the price quickly rebounded back to above $15,000. As of 10 a.m. this morning, according to the BoNet perpetual contract platform, the BTC price was $15,531, up 3.05% from 24 hours ago.

Institutional Views:

CoinWorld Research Institute:

The US election finally came to an end last weekend. Although Trump unilaterally expressed his dissatisfaction, he is not the first and will not be the last presidential candidate to express dissatisfaction, but he may be the most ungraceful one.

Interestingly, after the election results were announced, BTC experienced a brief drop of more than $1,000, but then the price began to rebound.

Rather than saying that the election affected the BTC market, it is better to say that the Grayscale Fund directly promoted this round of BTC market. From October 21 to November 6, the Grayscale Fund increased its BTC holdings for 17 consecutive days, and its holdings increased from 465,500 on the 21st to 491,300 on the 6th.

According to Yahoo Finance data, the average daily trading volume of Grayscale GBTC Trust in October reached a 19-year peak level.

In contrast, the overall transaction volume of the BTC secondary market has not seen explosive growth. This also reflects the intuitive feelings of many people that the direct cause of this round of price increases is institutional buying, and retail investors have not been crazy about chasing the price increase.

In terms of price, BTC has risen directly from $12,000 to over $15,000. What exactly is the reason for such a large buying demand from institutions? Uncertainty about the US election? Uncertainty about the resurgence of the epidemic? The incremental expectations brought by Paypal to the market? Maybe all of them, but the actual situation we see is that the fluctuation center of BTC price has moved up again.

When the price is high, there will naturally be selling. There are buyers and sellers, and the market is still there. But when to close the transaction, everyone should have their own evaluation criteria in mind. The market has been very good in the past two days, and many extreme bullish arguments have also come out. Some people (such as PlanB) say that BTC can reach more than 100,000 US dollars in 2021. I know that he calculated it through a model; but more people may just shout it out on the spur of the moment. I can't predict where BTC will end up, but we should stick to a basic logic in investment, that is, what was the logic for buying BTC in the first place? Is this logic still there now? If not, sell it.

Some people buy because they see institutions entering the market. Now the trading volume of institutions has reached a stage high. It is very likely that in the next period of time, the trading enthusiasm of institutions will decline, which may affect the decline of BTC secondary market prices. It may be a reasonable trading strategy to sell part now and wait for the price to fall before buying back.

Since March this year, we have been holding BTC according to the changes in the monetary cycle. In other words, if the monetary policies of central banks of various countries do not change and inflation expectations do not fall sharply, we will always be optimistic about the rise of BTC. The factors that may change during the holding period include the suppression of the epidemic in major regions of the world, the mass production of vaccines, the economic recovery process of G7 and China, and changes in monetary policy. From this, it can be deduced that at the medium and micro levels, the introduction of regulatory rules in various countries and the participation of large institutions may have a more direct impact on the price of BTC. Therefore, our investment in BTC may continue but not be limited to the next 2-5 years.

Everyone has their own investment logic, just enjoy the process!

BTC's wide fluctuations over the weekend also affected the local trend of mainstream currencies, but in terms of overall performance, ETH performed more strongly. Although the price fell back to around 424 from 464, the subsequent rebound has recovered the losses from the decline. The overall structure also shows signs of rising and then consolidating to wait for another rise. The target is still around the previous high of 488.

Among DeFi currencies, popular currencies such as YFI and UNI also rebounded strongly over the weekend. From the perspective of sector rotation, there is indeed a possibility that BTC's profit-making funds will flow into other currencies. The secondary rebound opportunity of the previous popular currencies can indeed be seized, but because these currencies are highly volatile and the chips are relatively concentrated, even if retail investors participate, it is better to bet with a small position.

Gate.io:

According to Gate.io contract transaction data, as of 10:15 on November 9, the BTC/USDT perpetual contract price was $15,497.68, and the spot price was $15,488.57. The perpetual contract price rose by 2.96% compared with yesterday. The BTC/USDT perpetual contract funding rate (only the settlement every 8 hours) was (0.0001) at 08:00, and (0.000103) at 00:00 in the previous period.

The BTC long-short ratio in 30 minutes is 52.26%:47.74%. In terms of positions and transactions, the total position reached 20,534,344 USDT, and the transaction volume in the past 24 hours rose to 80,343,939 USDT. From the 30-minute line, the BTC contract price fluctuated violently over the weekend, once falling by more than 7%, and then rebounded overnight, recovering all the losses, and is currently adjusting around $15,500. The BOLL band rising channel has been opened again, and both the upper and lower rails are running upward. Although the transaction volume has declined, the bulls are still dominant, and the short-term upward trend may start. There may be a small-level bottoming out due to market uncertainties during the day, which can be seen as a long opportunity in the long term. The possibility of a large correction is not great, so please pay attention to risk control.

Huobi Research Club:

According to the data from Huobi trading platform, BTC briefly went sideways on Saturday, and then quickly dropped in volume in the early hours of Sunday, reaching a low of 14366.16 USDT. It has now rebounded and basically returned to the vicinity of the previous high. After this wave of decline, short-term profit-taking has been released to a certain extent. This wave of rapid decline over the weekend has reached the Fib0.618 of the rising range. The shuffle range is still relatively sufficient, and the trading volume has also increased accordingly. However, with the rapid decline, the bulls continue to absorb funds, and the market has returned to the 15500 USDT line. The current market is still sideways at a high level. The current sideways consolidation may be a relay of the rising market. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the previous high point and the support of the 15000 USDT integer mark below.

According to the data from Huobi trading platform, ETH also had a round of correction following BTC on Sunday, with the lowest price dropping to 424.73 USDT. Now it has rebounded and returned to the previous high of 450 USDT. Similarly, the previous profit-taking has been released to a certain extent, and the upward trend is likely to continue. If it can stand firm at 450 USDT and successfully break through the high point during the day, there may be another wave of rise. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the previous high point and the support of 440 USDT below during the day.

In terms of contracts, Huobi contract big data shows that BTC contract holdings have slightly decreased, contract trading volume has slightly decreased, and the contract market is relatively inactive. The basis of delivery contracts has slightly decreased, and the funding rate of perpetual contracts has slightly decreased. ETH contract holdings have slightly increased, contract trading volume has decreased, and the contract market is relatively inactive. The basis of delivery contracts has continued to increase slightly, and the funding rate of perpetual contracts has increased slightly.

The price of USDT in Huobi Global OTC market is 6.53 yuan.

58COIN:

The BTC/USDT perpetual contract closed with a real big positive line with upper and lower shadows last week, and the bulls are in an advantageous position; the daily line closed with a cross star with a very long lower shadow last night, and there is obvious buying below, and the bulls are in an advantageous position; after opening today, it hit 15650 and then pulled back, and the current price is around 15500.

Today’s analysis:

Weekly chart: There is no small positive line this week, which is included in last week's K-line; the moving average combination and MACD indicators are both in a bullish arrangement, and no obvious stagflation signal is seen. Daily chart: Yesterday's K-line showed that the bulls still have an absolute advantage. Today's K-line is temporarily a small positive line, which again combines bullish signals. Pay attention to the closing of today's K-line; the MACD indicator double line rose three times. From the comparison of the area formed by the double lines and the area of ​​the volume column, the second increase in volume and time is the largest. Pay attention to the changes in the volume column and the direction of the fast and slow lines in recent days. 4-hour chart: After the high point of 15957 on the 6th, there was a time rest and space adjustment, which lasted for two days, and the space callback was around the lowest 14356 (callback 1601USDT); the distance between the MACD double lines shrank, and there is a possibility of adhesion. Today, pay attention to continuing to test the 0 axis support downward, and pay attention to the possibility of consolidation in this cycle.

Support levels: 15350 – 15180 – 15050 – 14750 – 14350;

Pressure level: 15770——16000——16360——16660——16930.

Matcha Research Institute:

BTC hourly wave pattern is in a wide range of shock adjustment at high level, and rebounds to the previous sideways center after rapid decline. Intraday trading strategy, shorting at highs is the main strategy, and pay attention to grasping the rhythm of time and space. The pressure range is 15850-15950, and the support range is 15050-15150.

Contract market data:

1. Trading volume and open interest of each exchange:

Source: Skew

2. The ratio of long and short positions held by major exchanges

OKEx long and short position ratio:

Source: OKEx

Binance long and short position ratio:

Source: Contract Emperor

As BTC consolidates at a high level, the long-short ratio of OKEx and Binance began to show different trends. The long-short ratio of OKEx has been declining, while the ratio of Binance has shown a wide range of fluctuations.

3. Long-short ratio of holdings in major exchanges

OKEx elite long and short average positions:

Source: OKEx

Binance’s large traders’ long-short ratio

Source: Golden Fruit

Huobi Elite’s long-short ratio

Source: Golden Fruit

The elite positions of the top exchanges show the divergence of investors during market fluctuations. The elite positions of Binance continue to show a long advantage, while the elite positions of OKEx and Huobi show a slight short advantage in the last hour.

Important Message:

1. JPMorgan Chase released a report stating that financial institutions are abandoning gold ETFs and buying Bitcoin instead.

2. The FBI confiscated nearly $1 billion worth of Bitcoin from Silk Road crimes on Election Day.

3. Data monitoring shows that on November 7, 1,000 BTC mined in 2010 were transferred for the first time.

4. Bitcoin’s market value is equivalent to the 18th largest commercial company in the United States, surpassing PayPal and Coca-Cola.

5.Kraken business development director Dan Held said Bitcoin could reach $100,000 in 2021.

about Us:

Founded in August 2018, the CoinWorld Research Institute mainly focuses on technical research, industry analysis, application innovation, model exploration, etc. in the field of blockchain. We hope to build a research platform covering the entire blockchain industry chain, provide a solid theoretical foundation and trend judgment for blockchain industry professionals, and promote the development of the entire blockchain industry.

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