If Trump strikes back, what will happen to cryptocurrency investment?

Almost everyone in the world has been paying attention to the US election these days. It is no exaggeration to describe it as thrilling and bizarre. Some people even said that even Hollywood would not dare to shoot it like this. Of course, while more people are watching the excitement, there are actually two issues that they have to consider.

1. Are our thoughts influenced by the media?

2. If the King of Understanding makes a comeback, how will you face this result?

The author also discussed this topic with some friends in the cryptocurrency circle today. Most people feel helpless about the news media dominating their personal thoughts. That is to say, even if you know that what he said is problematic, you cannot seek the correct answer (more out of laziness and dependence). You either accept it or oppose it. There is no third answer.

Image source: Internet

This is exactly a problem reflected by the US election. Of course, there is another problem in the investment community, especially in the cryptocurrency community. Every day, we can see a lot of cryptocurrency news from many directions, and there is a constant confusion between true and false news. For example, at the end of last year, there was some fake news, so that most people in the industry were either refuting the rumors or on the way to refuting them. Of course, some "fake news" eventually became true news, and it was difficult to distinguish between true and false.

News needs to be objective and neutral, and should not bring in all kinds of personal emotions and analytical judgments, otherwise it will be suspected of misleading people. For example, in this article, at most, I can only say that it is my own feelings, opinions and sharing, and it cannot be treated as news. That's what I mean. But if we look at the articles in the cryptocurrency circle, which one does not have strong opinions and emotions? They can't wait to tell you directly that you should quickly participate in this and you will definitely make money. Although some of them may really make you money, some will make you lose a lot of money.

Since the rise of DeFi, there have actually been more noisy voices in the market, all kinds of them, and they are all on the table. Many people often lose the ability to make independent judgments in this environment. Today, this person said that he made tens of thousands of dollars in one night by playing a certain mining game, and tomorrow another person said that the wool activity he accidentally participated in before finally appreciated. All kinds of information are stimulating people's nerves. If you can really operate according to the various "get-rich-quick articles" in this market, it is estimated that there are not many people who can make money, and most people will lose money.

The same is true for the US election. The news is true and false, and all kinds of reality shows are taken seriously, making the public not know who to believe, and the grassroots people can only worship blindly, so it becomes a mess. Therefore, how to judge and filter the news is the only way for the leeks in the currency circle to become the big guys, and it is also the only way in life.

Secondly, we must be prepared in advance for the arrival of the black swan. 2020 is destined to be an extraordinary year. Things that we would never have thought of or dared to think of before have all come this year. What’s more, it has refreshed many people’s three views. It can be said that the old perspective is gone and can only be used as a reference, not as a beacon.

Thinking of this, the author suddenly remembered introducing Zhou Jintao’s “Getting Rich in Life by Kondratieff Wave” to others a year ago. There was a paragraph in it saying that 2018 would be the year of no return for Kondratieff Wave. Of course, although it was proved wrong in the end, I didn’t expect that this year might come in 2020. Although it is a bit late, it has arrived.

So what major events did we experience in 2020?

The number of infections in the COVID-19 pandemic has continued to rise and is still rising.

The price of Bitcoin dropped from more than 10,000 to more than 3,000 in just a few days. This is unimaginable.

Negative oil prices may be even more unimaginable

Now, it is the US presidential election. The author is also quite interested in it, so he read the media reports carefully and found that most people think Biden will be elected, but Trump has made unusual moves to express his presence, such as suing various states for election results, and there is still law to follow. At the same time, the US Federal Election Commission has not announced the election results yet, and several states are preparing to recount votes, etc. Things that everyone thought were set in stone before seem to have room for maneuver now. So should we not assume that Biden has won too early?

When talking about Biden's victory, we must talk about the cryptocurrency market. When Biden was considered by CNN to win, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies began to rise. The reason was that the boss of FTX donated huge amounts of money to Biden. Of course, this is allowed in the US election. Although they are more optimistic about Biden and Bitcoin has also risen, looking back at Trump, he still seems relatively calm. Such a firm belief is really incredible.

We have no reason to believe that there won’t be a black swan event with a reversal of results, because in 2020, anything can happen, just like the Age of Chaos. So when I talked with my friends about how the price of the currency would go if Trump won, two out of three thought it would rise, and one thought it would fall. Of course, I’m not sure whether it will rise or fall, mainly because the sample size is relatively small. But from this point of view, no one knows what impact the election will have on the financial market and the cryptocurrency market.

In this case, is the rise or fall just the result of the arbitrary choice of the financial giants behind the scenes? If so, wouldn’t the news-based investment that many people pursued in the past collapse? This would be another scary thing.

When I watched "The Three-Body Problem" before, I was puzzled by the fact that the blockade of human technology by the Sophon caused many top basic physicists to commit suicide. Now it seems that it is not a puzzle, but to a certain extent, each of us may have our own most basic cognition of survival, and based on this cognition, we form our own unique personality and lifestyle. Once this cognition is shattered by changes in the outside world, it may be the time when a person truly collapses, which is also the most terrifying.