Can Canaan Creative's listing bring optimism to the market?

Canaan Creative, a manufacturer of bitcoin mining machines, will be listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange today, raising $90 million.

For the blockchain industry, mining machine manufacturers play a role similar to that of infrastructure and manufacturing, and their valuation models and financial statements are clearer and more specific than those of other blockchain companies. Their successful IPO reflects the recognition and acceptance of the capital market, and can attract more attention from traditional capital, financial markets and mainstream social groups to the blockchain industry, which is conducive to the development and growth of the entire blockchain industry. We will wait and see.

Listing is just the beginning, and Canaan Creative's subsequent development still faces severe situations and challenges. Regardless of how its stock price performs after listing, it can be seen from the prospectus that the bulk of its revenue and profits come from sales of mining machines, accounting for more than 99%, while the profitability of its AI chip research and development and solution-related businesses, which it has high hopes for, is weak and difficult to change in the short term.

At the same time, in the sales of mining machines, it not only faces competition from mining machine giants such as Bitmain and Ebang International, but also faces weak demand for mining machines.

According to the BTC.com website, the latest BTC block height is 604740. Currently, 18 million bitcoins have been mined, which is less than 15% of the total upper limit of 21 million. With the halving cycle coming in April and May next year, the mining income of miners will be halved. For the mining pool group, on the one hand, there is the gradually increasing pressure of computing power competition, and on the other hand, the cost increase caused by the reduction of income, the situation will become more difficult, which will inevitably affect the demand for mining machines.

As for the news of Canaan Creative's listing, can it bring some changes to the market? I remain cautious. It is good for the industry, but for the market, it will not bring incremental capital inflow or influx of user groups in the short and medium term. The market is still in the stage of stock capital game.

At the daily level, the overall trend of the market, including the K-line running status, MA moving average, MACD indicators, etc., are all arranged in a short-term arrangement. Under such circumstances, the market is not optimistic. The more stable approach is to stop the decline and stabilize first, and then the bullish momentum will reverse after a period of sideways consolidation.

In terms of small-scale trends, although the market stopped falling at the $8,000 level and the MACD net bullish force continued, there was no obvious increase in volume, and the overall rebound was weak. It did not stabilize at this time. Once it breaks, the large-scale repair will only take longer.

It can be said that the power of bottom-fishing at this stage is still too weak. The downward trend of the market at the daily level is obvious at a glance. Although the amplitude is relatively gentle compared with the previous plunge, it does not mean that the bulls are much stronger than before. Instead, it means that the bulls are passively defensive and overwhelmed.

However, it is worth being optimistic that as the market index gradually moves downward, the time and magnitude of the short-sellers’ suppression will not be too much. After all, with the positive effects of the halving cycle ahead, it is unlikely that the market makers will continue to violently smash the market, and can only use this slow-cooking method to consume the strength of the bulls. At this stage, only time can reflect the value, and fixed investment is always the best choice to break the deadlock.

Market analysis:

BTC: At the hourly level, with $8,100 as the center, the trend fluctuated slightly up and down. The volume of the attack last night was weak, and it failed to stand at $8,200, which can only be regarded as a tentative move. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the support strength of the $8,000 mark (briefly broken at the time of posting), as well as the pressure of the MA60 moving average. It is safer to stand above $8,400, so be cautious in operation.

ETH: The hourly line level maintains a range of 172-178 US dollars. It is suppressed by the MA60 moving average and has strong support at 170 US dollars. In the short term, a small position can be opened on dips.

LTC: The short-term decline has widened, and the strong support has moved down to around US$50. The pressure is at US$60. Pay attention to the risks.

BCH: At the hourly level, the market rebounded slightly, but the volume is still weak and continues to test the support of $240.

EOS: The overall trend is oscillating in the range of 3-3.2 US dollars, and the height is gradually moving downward. The short-term support of 3 US dollars must not be missed, otherwise it will plunge downward. Pay attention to the risks.

XRP: The daily chart continues to fall, with $0.24 as short-term support. Continue to wait and see.

ETC: The daily level is declining with reduced volume, and the short-term support is around 4 US dollars. It is mainly wait-and-see.

Platform currency: Under the high-pressure policy situation, the platform currency daily level fell below the support of the MA60 daily moving average, breaking in the short term and mainly waiting and watching.

Domestic public chains: Overall, they follow the market's decline in volume, and there is a risk of a break. In the short term, it is mainly a wait-and-see approach. In the medium and long term, a small amount of high-quality currencies can be invested.