OKEx allows withdrawals, is the “Grayscale bull market” coming to an end?

It’s not so lively even when Bitcoin reaches $18,000!

Just this afternoon, OKEx announced that the platform will open free withdrawals before November 27, 2020. As soon as the news came out, the circle of friends was boiling.

Some people say that the hard times are finally over and the happy beans have turned into golden beans . Some people slap their thighs and regret not buying at the bottom in time. Others worry that if "Nurse Xu" comes out, will the bull market end?

Looking back at the 35 days when OKEx suspended withdrawals, the OKEx platform currency fell by 30% at one point, and the price of OKU fell from $6.5 to even less than $5.

As OKEx released the announcement, OKU suddenly returned to its normal price and OKB also soared by 10%, recovering all the losses during the period .

In the face of the OKEx Black Swan incident, some people easily earned 20% of the profit (annualized 240%), while others sold their shares with resentment. Different choices lead to different results. For detailed reports on the OKEx Black Swan incident, please refer to: https://www.8btc.com/article/663828

Fortune is sought in danger, happy beans turned into gold beans, someone made 5 million US dollars

OKEx suspended withdrawals at noon on October 16. On that day, OKEx suddenly issued an announcement to suspend withdrawals. The announcement came so suddenly that there was almost no time to react.

Coin CMO Shi Daye once revealed the incident to Babbitt during the live broadcast of the chain node:

The Filecoin mainnet was launched on October 15, and trading was very hot. The next day, OKEx made some adjustments to the rules of the FILUSDT perpetual contract, and the premium of the FIL contract would be eliminated. Mr. Shi seized the opportunity and went long on FIL. On the morning of October 16, it suddenly broke out in the community that OKEx would suspend withdrawals at 13:00. Mr. Shi looked at the time and thought he could close his position first, and there was still time to withdraw it. As a result, not long after, the announcement changed the suspension time of withdrawals to 12:00, and later to 11:00. At this time, it was too late to withdraw the money, and the assets were forced to be locked in.

The sudden suspension of withdrawals has caused panic among many users who have assets stored on OKEx:

“Will OKEx be banned by the relevant authorities?”, “Will the assets be unconvertible?”, “Will the platform go bankrupt due to a run?”

These issues directly affect users' next decision. Some people choose to sell USDT at a crazy discount out of panic. OKEx's platform currency also fell sharply due to this news.

(During the period when OKEx suspended withdrawals, OKU dropped to 5U at its lowest, which was nearly 30% lower than other platforms)

(On October 16, OKB plummeted due to market panic)

In the market game, it is time to consider investors' courage and foresight.

Some people chose to trust the platform. Based on their years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry and their assessment of the situation, they concluded that the suspension of withdrawals would not result in OKEx assets being unable to be redeemed, nor would the platform go bankrupt, and the assets stored in it were safe.

Mr. Shi is such an investor. He started acquiring OKU from the first day. He believed that once OKEx opened withdrawals, the price of OKU would be aligned with the prices on other platforms. This can almost be seen as a high-yield financial product with a guaranteed profit of 20%.

Now it seems that he made the right bet .

There are people who are as courageous as Mr. Shi. For example, a netizen on Weibo posted his "battle record" and made nearly 5 million US dollars in one battle.

If a black swan event like OKEx happens again, what choice will you make?

Chain reaction: Platform coins generally rise

Affected by OKEx's opening of coin withdrawals, not only OKB has seen a sharp rise, but platform coins such as Huobi Exchange, Gate Exchange and Matcha Exchange have also seen varying degrees of increases.

The price of coins on Binance, one of the three major exchanges, has not risen significantly. This may be due to the fact that Binance's previous gains were too large or that its founder is not in the country and is less affected by policies.

Are the days of the “Grayscale Bull” over?

In the 35 days since the OKEx incident, Bitcoin has experienced a rare and steady rise , increasing in small steps from $11,000 to $17,000 today.

During this period, the price of Bitcoin rarely fluctuated greatly, except for a short-term plunge of $1,200 when it broke through $18,000 at noon the day before yesterday.

There are currently two views in the industry about this rise: 1) Grayscale is buying, buying, and buying; 2) There are problems with two exchanges in "HBO".

Grayscale is a crypto trust institution that has been buying Bitcoin since last year and has accumulated more than 500,000 BTC, accounting for nearly 3% of the total circulation of Bitcoin. Its influence cannot be underestimated. In the eyes of many people in the cryptocurrency circle, Grayscale only buys but does not sell, and its behavior of buying more as the price rises makes it look like a "silly fool" .

Centralized exchanges, in particular, probably have even less understanding of Grayscale’s behavior.

Before 2020, centralized exchanges stood at the top of the cryptocurrency food chain, making huge sums of money and making huge profits.

Some of them are not only referees, controlling the project party's right to list coins, but also athletes, occasionally going out to insert needles in the middle of the night, blowing up positions at a fixed point, or "pulling the line" to stop trading.

For this reason, the person in charge of the platform of almost every exchange is affectionately called "XX Nurse" by the leeks.

The above is just speculation because there is no evidence, but Lu Xun said: I have never hesitated to speculate about exchanges with the greatest malice .

This behavior has led to many strange phenomena in the cryptocurrency circle: old investors dare not put their coins in exchanges, new investors lose all their money playing with contracts, the cryptocurrency circle has become inward-looking, and no newcomers dare to enter the market to charge money.

With the emergence of giant whales like Grayscale, the original way of playing in the cryptocurrency circle is no longer effective .

Institutions do not need to rely on repeatedly harvesting the few melons and dates in the hands of leeks. Instead, they can honestly buy and buy, and slowly expand the market from hundreds of billions to trillions. This is good for both their own customers and the big funds that will enter the market later. If the market is big, wouldn’t it be better to collect huge management fees every year?

Huobi, Binance and OKEx are the three exchanges with the largest trading volume in the world, known as "HBO". Recently, first Xu Mingxing, the actual controller of OKEx, was investigated, and then the second person in charge of Huobi was investigated. The currency circle is in a state of panic. At the same time, at the end of the year, the domestic supervision on anti-money laundering has become stricter, and there has been a wave of card freezing in the currency circle, which has prevented the inflow and outflow of funds to a certain extent. Faced with overseas institutions led by Grayscale, the influence of Chinese investors (especially retail investors) on the price of coins has declined significantly.

As OKEx resumes withdrawals, will the itchy domestic players and those big players who earn 20% of the profits dump their stocks and flee? Will the long-lost midnight spike market reappear? Can Grayscale fight against the large number of speculators led by China on its own? We will wait and see.