The economy has its own inherent cycles, and Bitcoin's benefits have just begun -

Abstract: The world's madness continues. Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs executive and founder of Real Vision, tweeted that he would sell all his gold assets and use 80% to buy Bitcoin and 20% to buy Ethereum. His investment logic is still macroeconomics. In other words, the logic of most American billionaires and institutions buying Bitcoin is to hedge against inflation. That is, the epidemic has driven the economy down, and the Federal Reserve's money printing has led to a global flood. The natural scarcity of Bitcoin has been favored by capital. Before this fundamental logic changes, Bitcoin will receive a steady stream of capital inflows.

Madman said

The world's madness is still going on. Raoul Pal, the founder of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs executive, said on Twitter that he would sell all his gold assets and use 80% to buy Bitcoin and 20% to buy Ethereum. His investment logic is still macroeconomics. In other words, the logic of most American billionaires and institutions buying Bitcoin is to hedge against inflation. That is, the epidemic has driven the economy down, and the Federal Reserve's money printing has led to a global flood. The natural scarcity of Bitcoin has been favored by capital. Before this fundamental logic changes, Bitcoin will receive a steady stream of capital inflows.

Anyone who studies macroeconomics knows that there are economic cycles in this world. Even the smallest macro cycle often takes 10 years. Inflation has just begun. In addition, blockchain has begun to integrate into the mainstream technology field and is changing the world. As the originator of blockchain technology, Bitcoin will naturally be driven by this dual era. Therefore, there is no need to consider the long-term risk of Bitcoin at present. Instead, we need to study at what position it is worthwhile for us to increase our positions again. Since Bitcoin can help those who were trapped in 2017 to get out of the trap this year, it will not be the end. In the words of CCTV, this round of bull market is no longer the same as the previous round. The current bull market is supported by real value and ecology, while the previous round was undoubtedly a bubble. Be a long-term investor. Since you believe that blockchain will change the world, then Bitcoin will definitely become the most valuable investment. The so-called long-term value is those things that can truly provide people with a convenient way in the future.

The Guggenheim Macro Investment Fund mentioned by Madman yesterday has obtained approval from the US SEC, which means that US$500 million of funds will enter the market through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. This is an obvious positive expectation, but we don’t know when to buy it.

The number of Bitcoin addresses with holdings greater than 100 has been declining for two consecutive weeks. The decline is not large, but it is worth noting that the number of addresses with holdings greater than 1 BTC continues to rise, while the number of addresses with holdings greater than 100 and 1,000 Bitcoins continues to decline. This trend often means chip distribution in the capital market, but the current number sample is too small, and many institutions are still taking over, so there is no need to worry too much.

Grayscale will go to work tonight. At this critical juncture, how much Grayscale buys tonight will become an important factor in market sentiment. If it buys more, the market will directly reverse to a new high. If it buys less, it is likely to cause a large amount of profit-taking. However, Grayscale CEO did send a tweet saying "I guess the Bitcoin sell-off on Black Friday is officially over. I hope you have enough stock." This sentence may be a hint of a large amount of buying at night?

In addition, Grayscale will hold an investor conference at 0:00 on December 4th, with Morgan Stanley, MasterCard, and MicroStrategy all participating. I guess it will be another order-calling conference, after all, the participants are also determined by their butts. There might be a big pull on the night of the 4th.

The Fear and Greed Index is 88, continuing to be in the risk area.

Positive comments about Bitcoin on Twitter hit a six-month high. The last time this happened was in May, which caused Bitcoin to go sideways for more than two months. Overall, this is not a good thing.

Market Analysis

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin will close the monthly line of this month today and start a new one tomorrow. Madman took a special look and felt that the current deviation value is too large, that is, it is difficult to get out of the unilateral upward trend next month. On the contrary, it is likely to fall back to the 16,000 area, so those who have not boarded the train do not need to be too anxious. Bitcoin is currently in a super pressure zone. The 18,700 area is the upper edge of the previous chip concentration area. In other words, a large number of profit-taking orders are untied at this position. If the market cannot continue to attack, it will encounter resistance and fall back at this position. Therefore, Madman said above that Grayscale's buying tonight will have a greater impact on market sentiment. If it stands above 19,000, it can continue to go long in the short term. Otherwise, it is still cautious to go long near this pressure level. If there is no influence from the Grayscale factor, Madman believes that the probability of a short-term correction is greater than an increase.

ETH:

It also rebounded to the upper edge of the chip concentration area. The resistance at this position is very strong. It rose and fell this afternoon. There is a certain correction expectation in the short term. 2.0 deposits 850,000 ETH. The growth has become very slow, but as major exchanges open one-click deposits, Ethereum is expected to continue to be strong in the future.

XRP:

The volume failed to increase continuously at the pressure level, and the probability of a pullback is greater than a continued rebound.

LINK:

It rose and then fell, and the overall trend was still mainly linkage.

BCH\EOS\TRX:

These weak coins are not performing well, so we should eliminate the weak ones and keep the strong ones.

LTC:

The trend is relatively better, but the overall trend is also linked.

ADA:

It didn't go up today, and a huge amount of trapped orders were formed near 0.17. You can reduce this position first and consider participating after it breaks through 0.17.

Dash:

It is performing better than ADA and is the strongest currency among the current mainstream currencies. You can continue to hold it.

ZEC:

Can be considered as Dash's younger brother.

DOT:

A needle was inserted, the bulls are not strong, but the locked-in ones are running away. This is the most typical portrayal of the current market. Therefore, if there is not enough bullish power to attack the upper edge of the chip concentration area, it is difficult to rush directly. Today's volume is still not good, so don't participate first.

The market is now an emotional market, and technical indicators are more or less ineffective. How the market will go depends on the attitudes of these institutional bosses. Our opinions don’t count. So either break through 19,000 before doing anything, or hold on patiently and don’t be afraid of short-term fluctuations. In the long run, now is the bottom anyway.