CICC: US ​​election observation and trading guide

Chart: Estimated total votes in 2024 is 160 million

Chart: According to the party registration of early voters already received in swing states, Harris has a larger lead, but the election results are still very uncertain

As the voting day on November 5 approaches, how to track the real-time election situation and when the results will be announced are issues that everyone is very concerned about.

1. How long is the voting time? The voting will start from east to west in order of time zones, and will basically close at noon on the 6th, Beijing time

The counting rules and times vary from state to state. For example, some states count votes while voting on Election Day, and some states allow early votes to be counted before Election Day. Shortly after the polling stations in each state close, a considerable portion of the voting results have been counted, and the remaining votes usually do not affect the overall situation unless the election is very close. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the final results will generally not be released later than late at night on Election Day, which is noon on the 6th Beijing time. However, if there are a large number of mail-in ballots or a recount is triggered, the results may be delayed. Judging from the large proportion of mail-in ballots this time and the rules that some swing states do not allow early counting, the final results may be slightly delayed, but they will basically be available in the afternoon or evening of the 6th Beijing time. If the results in individual key swing states are very close and need to be recounted, the results will also be delayed. Specifically for the 7 most critical swing states, the following are the specific counting times and details (all Beijing time):

► Georgia: It may be the first swing state to announce the results. Georgia has a high proportion of early voting (80%), and has been processing mail-in ballots since October 21, stipulating that mail-in ballots must be mailed before the polling stations close. It is expected that 90% of the votes will be counted before 10:30 am Beijing time on the 6th. Georgia does not have an automatic recount trigger mechanism, but if the final difference is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total votes, candidates can apply for a recount.

► North Carolina: Results may be available at noon on the 6th. North Carolina also has a high rate of early voting (75%), and this year's new rules require that mail-in ballots must be received before voting day. Early voting and voting on election day will be announced between 7:30 and 9:30 a.m. and 8:30 and 1 p.m. on the 6th, Beijing time, respectively. North Carolina also does not have an automatic recount trigger mechanism, but if the final difference is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total votes or 10,000 votes, candidates can apply for a recount.

► Michigan: Results may be released at noon on the 6th. Most districts in Michigan will begin processing mail-in ballots on October 28, and mail-in ballots must be received before the polling stations close on Election Day. Most areas will complete the count on the morning of the 6th, but the full results will not be available until the evening. If the statewide ballot difference is less than 2,000 votes, an automatic recount will be triggered.

► Pennsylvania: May be announced in the afternoon or evening of the 6th. Mail-in ballots must be received before Election Day, and processing begins at 7 a.m. on Election Day. Early counting is not allowed, so the counting time may be longer. If the statewide ballot difference is less than or equal to 0.5%, an automatic recount will be triggered.

► Wisconsin: May be announced in the afternoon or evening of the 6th. Mail-in ballots must be received before the voting day. Like Pennsylvania, early counting is not allowed, but election workers must count the ballots overnight to speed up the release. Historically, the counting is usually completed before 1 pm. Wisconsin does not have a trigger mechanism for automatic recount, but candidates can apply for a recount if the final difference is less than or equal to 1%.

► Arizona: Preliminary results may be released in the morning, but full results are not expected until 5 p.m. Most voters vote by mail and early counting is allowed, but votes cast on Election Day will not be counted until after the polls close. Preliminary results are usually released around 10 a.m., but the overall release time is extended for two reasons: 1) the number of votes cast on Election Day needs to be calculated and announced before the official count, and 2) Maricopa County, the largest county in the state, estimates that the complete count of ballots cast at polling stations on Election Day may not be announced until 5 p.m. The trigger threshold for automatic recount is 0.5%.

► Nevada: It may take several days to count mail-in ballots. The official results of the in-person vote will be announced a few hours after the voting time, but it will still take several days to count the mail-in ballots. Ballots must be postmarked before the voting day, and mail-in ballots will be counted as soon as they are received, but because Nevada allows ballots to be received before November 9, the counting time is longer.

3. How to watch the game? Pennsylvania is the "match point", Harris "must" win Pennsylvania, Trump's path to victory is more

Due to the unique electoral vote mechanism in the United States and the stable "base" of the two parties, most states play the role of "going through the motions" in the election. For example, according to 270towin's aggregate polls and predictions from different models, Harris has basically secured 226 votes and Trump has secured 219 votes (270 electoral votes are needed to win the election).

On the contrary, some so-called "swing states" with unclear positions and stalemate in the election have become the winners and losers of the election. There are seven swing states in this election. The Blue Wall states (Blue Wall refers to states that have always supported the Democratic Party in the past eight presidential elections, but turned the tables in the 2016 election) include Michigan (15, -0.8%, the former refers to the number of electoral votes, and the latter refers to the extent to which Trump leads Harris in the polls, the same below), Pennsylvania (19, 0.4%), and Wisconsin (10, -0.3%), with a total of 44 votes; the southern swing states of the "Sun Belt" include Georgia (16, 2.6%), North Carolina (16, 1.5%), Arizona (11, 2.3%), and Nevada (6, 1.5%), with a total of 49 votes. Among them, Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, making it the "match point" of this election.

Judging from the current possibilities and paths to victory, Harris "must" win Pennsylvania, otherwise it will be almost impossible to win the election; Pennsylvania is equally important to Trump, but there are other paths, at least to win a blue wall state (not necessarily Pennsylvania). The following are the specific paths:

► Trump's path to victory: Trump's victory in the "Sun Belt" swing states alone is not enough to reach 270 votes. He needs to win at least one blue wall state. 1) If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he only needs to win Georgia and Arizona in the Sun Belt (both of which are ahead by more than 2% in Republican polls), and North Carolina or Nevada (both of which are ahead by 1.5% in Republican polls) to win. 2) If Trump loses Pennsylvania, another more likely path is to win all four Sun Belt states and Wisconsin or Michigan, where the Democratic Party's lead in Wisconsin is even lower (by 0.3%).

► Harris's path to victory: 1) If Harris wins all blue states, especially Pennsylvania, and the number of votes in the traditional blue states that are almost locked in has just reached 270, this is also the path that her campaign is more focused on at present. Among these three blue states, the Democratic Party has a slight lead in the polls in Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is more uncertain, so it is particularly important. 2) If Harris wins Pennsylvania but loses Michigan or Wisconsin, it is necessary to pay attention to whether North Carolina can be reversed (the Republican lead rate is lower than that in other states). 3) If Harris loses Pennsylvania, or loses Michigan and Wisconsin at the same time, she needs to win at least two swing states in the Sun Belt to win, which is very difficult.