Is Bitcoin an efficient market? | How do good and bad news affect the market?

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Do you think the current Bitcoin market is a mature market? Or is it an efficient market? (Note: An efficient market refers to a market where prices fully reflect relevant information. According to the different factors affecting market efficiency, market efficiency is actually the sum of market resource allocation efficiency, market information efficiency, market system efficiency and market behavior efficiency. In an efficient market, as new information continues to enter the market, the prices of related investment tools will quickly reflect and adjust, making prices a sensitive reflector of various new incoming information.)
For example, if everyone knows that there will be a big negative news at 8 o'clock tomorrow night, do you think the market will start falling now or at 8 o'clock tomorrow night?
For another example, after the weekend, if the domestic short sellers haven’t smashed the market, and the American institutions are about to go to work, if the market is going to rise, will it rise before the Americans go to work or after they go to work?
Or does all this not matter?
For example, some data, such as CME's gap data, GBTC's premium, and the purchase volume of institutions such as Grayscale, Square, and PayPal, how do you think they will be reflected in the currency price?
Also, do you think there are so-called "market makers" and "insider information" in the secondary market of Bitcoin now?

The second thing that triggered my thinking was the sharp drop in the past few days. There were two obvious negative factors. One was Thanksgiving (you can understand it as we are about to celebrate Chinese New Year's Eve). Foreigners and institutions are not participating in the market. If only the domestic market is left, then the air force will definitely trample on the bulls. The other negative factor is that it is ok to open up coin withdrawals. This is actually inexplicable. Suspending coin withdrawals is negative factor, and opening up coin withdrawals is still negative factor. Whatever the market says is what it is.
The core of the problem is that the market will fall on Thanksgiving Day, and it actually fell on Thanksgiving Day, which was after the last working day in the United States (and GBTC had fallen for a long time in advance), and it was ok to open withdrawals, which was a bad news that everyone knew, but they said 4 o'clock was 4 o'clock, not a minute earlier or delayed.
Logically, this should be the so-called "bad news", but it doesn't happen in this way. Isn't it interesting? In the past, the market seemed to start falling when it knew the bad news, and then rebound after the bad news was realized. It seems that mature markets should be like this. The impact of a piece of news should start when people know it, not when it actually happens. But it seems that this is often not the case now.

Third, this is why I don’t do business in the secondary market, because my judgment is sometimes right and sometimes wrong, but there were several times when I was very sure that they were all wrong. If I had conducted relevant operations, I would have lost a lot of money by now.
After all, no matter how much money you make, if you suffer a few big losses in a year, you will have to pay it back.
It is difficult to judge when the market is clearly affected by news, let alone when there is no news. It is even more difficult to make a pure technical judgment.

Besides the influence of the market, I think the biggest influence on many people's operations is the media and the community. Everyone in the cryptocurrency circle is naturally a "bull", because those who do not recognize the long-term value of cryptocurrencies, what are they doing in this market? Aren't US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and precious metals attractive?
Therefore, bullish sentiment can easily spread and make people get carried away, but bearish sentiment will not. I have heard of retail investors getting carried away by going long, but rarely heard of those getting carried away by going short.
Fourth, the investment method I least recommend in this market is to go long. I have said this many times. This market directly "strangles" bulls at least twice a year, while it always boils the frog in warm water for bears. If you go short and make a mistake, you will be given ample time to correct it, so we see short positions blow up every day, but the volume is small.
The money that goes into long position but ends up going bankrupt in one day is enough to cause the money that goes into short position but ends up
It is easy to get carried away when going long, and there are too many hot-headed retail investors in the car. Usually, when the car flips over, they are like bazookas that can help you flip faster and farther.
Maybe it's not the market that blew you up, but your bullish partners.
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The existence of Bitcoin itself is the biggest "good news", so it is difficult to find a very significant good news to directly increase Bitcoin by 30%; in fact, only when China and the United States directly announce their support can such an effect be achieved. I experienced it last October, but it is obvious that this kind of thing is still misunderstood by the market.
However, there are many negative news that can directly cause Bitcoin to drop by 30%. Even if they are all fake news, negative news is much easier to fabricate than good news.
What good thing can you think of for Bitcoin right now? The existence of Bitcoin is the biggest good thing.
Then the rest is all bad news.
It is much easier to find faults in a perfect person than to find strengths.
Next year will be a super bull market, which seems reasonable no matter from which perspective.
The world is loosening its monetary policy, a four-year cycle.
Many of my close friends in the cryptocurrency circle are confident that there will be a bull market in cryptocurrencies next year. I am also quite confident. As I said before, I don’t know if there will be a bull market, but it is unlikely that there will be a bear market.
Regardless of whether it is a bull market or not, my advice is to remain in awe of the market, don't get carried away, and stand with the masses. But when they rush, just watch them rush, don't follow them.
Don't get on, don't get off.
This is my only suggestion if there is a big bull market next year.
After all, how many people lost everything when Bitcoin went from 9,000 to 19,000? If you are too excited, even if it goes up to 100,000, it won’t matter to you. You may even lose more.

Don't get on, don't get off.