Filecoin | Speculating on coins or mining? Analysis of the game of interests

Filecoin | Speculating on coins or mining? Analysis of the game of interests

In recent days, Filecoin has been rising. On March 11, the price of Filecoin was only 43U, but it soared to 97.8U on the morning of March 18, more than doubling. This has brought dividends to those who entered the market early and also ignited the hearts of those who are on the sidelines. So how should you choose to participate in Filecoin? Should you choose mining, hoarding or speculating on Filecoin?

There has always been a popular saying in the cryptocurrency circle: Speculating in cryptocurrencies is not as good as hoarding them, and hoarding them is not as good as mining them.

Is mining the option with the lowest cost and highest return? Let’s look at the data first

Currently, the price of a 96T server is 129,800 yuan , and the price of Filecoin is about 550 yuan. 129,800 yuan can buy 236 Filecoins. It takes 1065 FIL/unit to package a 96T server (1065 coins = 944 mortgage coins + 121 GAS fees)

The mortgage coins will be returned to the miners after the mining is completed.

Therefore, the cost of participating in mining includes purchasing servers and GAS fees. 236+121=357 FIL

It takes 45 days from the time an order is placed to the time it is produced and packaged for a 96T server. The current 24-hour average mining efficiency of Filecoin is 0.1017FIL/TiB. Ignoring the income from the packaging process, 9.76 Filecoins can be mined every day starting from the 46th day. After deducting the technical service fee, the daily income is 6.83 FIL. Because the effective computing power of the entire network has been increasing, a conservative calculation is that 5 FIL coins are produced every day.

A server only needs to work for 117 days to mine 357 Filecoins , and a server can work for 5 years without any problems. Even if it can no longer mine after 5 years, selling the mining machine can still recover a certain amount of the principal.

If you plan to store 357 Filecoins for 5 years, then from the 118th day of the first year to the last day of the fifth year, the amount of coins produced by the mining machine will continue to increase. Even if each server produces 2 Filecoins per day, then in 5 years, it can produce (365*5-117)*2= 3416 Filecoins .

After reading the data, I believe everyone has a clear idea in their mind, but there are still a few questions for you to think about:

1. Cryptocurrency speculation is nothing more than buying at a low price and selling at a high price, but it is very difficult to control the price in this process. You never know where the lowest point is and where the highest point is. For example, Filecoin is priced at 100 yuan after it goes online. Will you buy it? Well, you think the rise is good, so you buy it. As a result, it drops to 60 the next day. What do you think? You panic. It drops so much, so you run away. If you sell at a loss, it suddenly rises to 120 on the third day. Would you regret it? As a result, you think it is still a value investment, so you rush in again. On the fourth day, it falls back to 70. Well, your mentality is completely broken. You become a leek that is cut back and forth. 9 out of 10 stock speculations will lose money, and 95 out of 100 cryptocurrency speculations may lose money. If you are talking about a very powerful speculation master, please skip it.

2. If you want to hold Filecoin for a long time, a one-time purchase is far from enough. You need to make additional investments when the price rises and buy at the bottom when the price falls. This requires you to have sufficient cash flow to buy Filecoin at a good average price. However, servers are different. With a one-time investment, you will have a steady stream of tokens generated within 3-5 years.

3. Ask yourself, if you bought 100 bitcoins when the price was 100 yuan, how much money would you get to sell them? 500? 1000? 5000? 10000? 50000? In the process of hoarding coins, it is very painful to face the ups and downs of the coin price. Unless you really understand people, you will not sell them even if the price is hundreds of times higher. If you are a miner, it will be very comfortable. You can sell the coin when the price reaches your psychological price. As long as the server is running, you will generate income.

4. Mining has low risk and long payback period. A server can be used for 3-5 years. During these 3-5 years, as long as it does not stop, it will continue to generate income. Even if you do not want to participate in mining later, you can still use the server for traditional centralized storage or sell it directly.

5. Refer to the price increase of Bitcoin. When the price of the currency rises, the price of mining machines also rises, and even the supply is insufficient to meet the demand. Then we can also predict that after the launch of the Filecoin mainnet, secondary market investors will pour in, and the tokens will be in short supply. Observers think that Filecoin is profitable and start to buy servers. However, it takes a certain amount of time to produce servers. At that time, the supply of servers in the market will be insufficient to meet the demand, causing the price of servers to rise rapidly. And you, who have multiple servers in your hands, have made another fortune by selling the servers, and sighed: Speculating on coins is not as good as hoarding coins, and hoarding coins is not as good as mining.

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