Analyst: Bitcoin breaks through the ascending triangle and will test $52,000 next

Bitcoin's rally continued, hitting $47,754.31 in the past 24 hours, the highest level since January 2, 2022. Although there is no obvious external catalyst for this rise, some positive factors have indeed been brewing in the past week, such as Goldman Sachs becoming the first major US bank to trade Bitcoin over the counter, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Fund hinting at investing in crypto funds, and Terra, the network behind the Luna token, plans to establish a $10 billion Bitcoin reserve fund for its stablecoin TUSD, which represents super strong buying.

Looking at technical indicators, analysts believe that Bitcoin’s move above $47,000 confirms a breakout from a two-month “triangle” pattern defined by a trendline connecting the Feb. 10 and March 2 highs and the Jan. 25 and Feb. 24 lows.

Yuya Hasegawa, a crypto market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank, noted that short positions were accumulating in the bitcoin futures market when prices fluctuated below $40,000, leading to the liquidation of about $71 million on Sunday. He said: "From a technical point of view, Bitcoin has broken out of the ascending triangle, which indicates an upward trend and may continue to rise in the short term."

Market analyst Richard Perry tweeted: “Decisive breakout for Bitcoin this morning. A large base pattern completed above $45,855 (although a [UTC] close is needed for confirmation), which points to a test of $52,000 resistance and a target of $57,400 expected in the coming months.”

The chart below shows that a bull crossover between the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) could happen soon, reinforcing the positive trend presented by the ascending triangle breakout. A bull crossover occurs when the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term moving average, indicating bullish momentum. In the weeks following the bull crossover of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs on August 19 last year, Bitcoin jumped from $44,000 to $52,000.

Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at investment firm Copper, said in an interview with Bloomberg that the next resistance level for Bitcoin is $52,000. If it breaks through this level, Aboualfa believes that its price could reach $65,000, close to its all-time high set in November 2021.

But fundamental and macro strategists believe that technical analysis alone does not tell the whole story, with Yuya Hasegawa noting that markets should act cautiously ahead of the release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures report and employment report later this week, which could lead to a 50 basis point rate hike at the FOMC's next meeting.

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $47,536, up 6.11% in the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of approximately $903.37 billion.