Has the market stopped falling and stabilized?

As can be seen from the figure, the red line is still some distance away from the lower track of the channel. From the historical trend, we can see that the lowest levels of the bear markets in 2014 and 2018 basically closed below the lower track. At present, BTC as a whole is still in a volatile decline. If it falls too much in the short term, there will be a phased rebound, but the trend has not reversed. If the closing line this month cannot stand above US$35,000, there is a high probability that it will bottom out again in the future. Pay attention to the risks.

Research shows that the red and green lines are currently in a downward trend. Only when the red line stops falling and turns around first, will it have a chance to cross the green line upward. This generally means that the bottoming out is over, and a bull market will be launched later, such as the 2016-2017 bull market, the 2019 bull market, and the 2020-2021 bull market. A real bull market generally requires the red line to break through the middle track of the channel. In the 2019 bull market, the red line rose to the middle track and then encountered resistance and fell back. BTC also peaked at 14,000 and fluctuated downward all the way to 312, finally ushering in a V-shaped reversal after a strong wash. The red line effectively broke through the middle track to start this round of bull market.

At present, the red line is still in a downward trend, and there is no sign of stopping the decline, indicating that BTC may not have bottomed out yet. After it stops falling and stabilizes, there will most likely be a long period of bottom consolidation. Only when the two lines cross can the main upward trend be launched, so it may take a long time.