Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024: Insights from Major Banks on Hedge Funds

With the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity and Invesco anticipating Bitcoin ETFs, as well as the expected halving in April 2024, predictions for Bitcoin prices next year show a wide range of volatility. From JPMorgan Chase to Standard Chartered, here are the noteworthy predictions for 2024:

1. Pantera Capital: $150,000

Pantera Capital, led by Dan Morehead, predicted in its August “Blockchain Letter” that Bitcoin prices could rise to $147,843 after the halving in 2024. They believe that using the stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio, the price model suggests that Bitcoin’s valuation will become more pronounced relative to its scarcity.

Specifically, Pantera Capital said, "The 2020 halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoin by 43% relative to previous halvings. It has a 23% impact on price." Using history as a guide, this could indicate that prices will rise from $35,000 before the halving to $148,000 after the halving. However, not all Bitcoin supporters agree, having recently witnessed failed predictions based on the model.

2. Standard Chartered Bank: $120,000

In a recent research note in July, Standard Chartered Bank presented a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. The British multinational bank now expects Bitcoin’s value to rise to $50,000 by the end of this year, and could soar to $120,000 by the end of 2024. This revised forecast by Standard Chartered Bank marks an increase from their previous forecast in April. They expect Bitcoin’s price to reach a maximum of $100,000.

The upward revision of the bank's forecast is supported by several determinants. Notably, one of the main reasons for the potential price increase is the ongoing banking crisis. In addition, the report reveals that the rising profitability of Bitcoin miners is a key factor affecting the price trajectory. Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research, emphasized the important role of miners. He pointed out that "the reason for this is that in addition to maintaining the Bitcoin ledger, miners also play a key role in determining the net supply of newly mined Bitcoins."

3. JPMorgan Chase: $45,000 per Bitcoin

JPMorgan, one of the world’s leading investment banks, expects Bitcoin’s growth to be more limited, predicting a rise to $45,000. This forecast is influenced by the surge in gold prices. Historically, the price movements of Bitcoin and gold have shown correlation, and with gold prices recently breaking through the $2,000 per ounce mark, this reinforces JPMorgan’s conservative view on Bitcoin.

“With gold prices above $2,000, the value of gold held for investment purposes outside of central banks is around [$3 trillion],” JPMorgan strategists explained in a detailed report in May. “ This therefore suggests a $45,000 price for Bitcoin, assuming BTC will achieve a gold-like status among private investors.”

4. Matrixport: $125,000 by the end of 2024

In July, Matrixport, a well-known crypto service provider, predicted that the price of Bitcoin could soar to $125,000 by the end of 2024. This optimistic outlook is based on historical price patterns and an important signal: Bitcoin recently broke through $31,000 in mid-July, hitting its highest level in more than a year. Historically, such milestones mark the end of a bear market and the beginning of a strong bull market.

By comparing these patterns to historical data from 2015, 2019, and 2020, Matrixport estimates potential gains of up to 123% within 12 months and 310% within 18 months. This translates to potential Bitcoin prices of $65,539 and $125,731 in the respective timeframes.

5. Tim Draper: $250,000

Prominent venture capitalist Tim Draper maintains a highly bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Although his previous prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by June 2023 did not come to fruition, he remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s long-term potential. In a July interview with Bloomberg TV, Draper attributed recent U.S. regulatory actions, such as those against Coinbase and BN, to BTC’s short-term downtrend.

Despite these challenges, Draper still believes in the transformative power of Bitcoin and thinks it has the potential to reach $250,000, although that may not be until 2024 or 2025. His faith in Bitcoin’s ability to revolutionize finance and maintain its value in the long term remains unwavering.

6. Berenberg: Bitcoin will be $56,630 when it is halved

German investment bank Berenberg adjusted its forecast in July, predicting a reach of $56,630 by April 2024. This upward adjustment was supported by improved market sentiment, attributed to the anticipation of the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 and the growing interest shown by prominent institutional players .

The Berenberg analyst team, led by the insightful Mark Palmer, highlighted that they expect Bitcoin to appreciate significantly in value in the coming months. This prediction is driven by two key factors: the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving event and the growing enthusiasm shown by important institutions.

Berenberg also reiterated its buy rating on Microstrategy shares, highlighting their confidence in the market. The bank has revised its price target on Microstrategy from $430 to $510, citing higher valuations for the company’s BTC holdings and improving prospects for its software business.

7. Blockware Solutions: $400,000

In an August analysis titled “2024 Halving Analysis: Understanding the Market Cycles and Opportunities Created by Halvings,” Blockware Intelligence delved into the likelihood of Bitcoin prices reaching $400,000 during the next halving period, expected in 2024/25 .

One of the core factors identified in the study is the role of halving in shaping the Bitcoin market cycle. The report claims that a large portion of the selling pressure is borne by miners, who receive newly minted Bitcoins, most of which must be sold to cover operating costs. However, the halving event helps to eliminate inefficient miners, thereby reducing selling pressure.

The study highlights that as the halving leads to a reduction in supply, demand becomes the main determinant of Bitcoin market price. Historical data shows that a surge in demand is usually seen after a halving event. Market participants understand the supply-side dynamics brought about by the halving and are ready to deploy capital at the first sign of upward momentum, which can lead to a significant increase in prices. This surge in demand is particularly evident in the current on-chain data, validating the positive sentiment surrounding the halving event.

8. Summary

In addition to these notable predictions, there are a plethora of other price predictions for BTC, ranging from an ambitious $1 million prediction by Cathie Wood (ARK Invest) to $500,000 by Mike Novogratz (Galaxy Digital), $180,000 by Tom Lee (Fundstrat Global), $100,000 by Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad’s Company), $100,000 by Adam Back, and $70,000 by Arthur Hayes, highlighting different perspectives on the future value of Bitcoin.

As of press time (September 26, 2023), Bitcoin is trading at $26,286.

BTC below 23.6% Fib on 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com