Spot Bitcoin ETF's daily traffic hits the second highest level. Will BTC test ATH this week?

Risk markets traded higher on Wednesday as investor optimism grew about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September amid signs of slowing U.S. labor demand and a cooling economy.

Private payrolls data released by ADP showed hiring slowed to 152,000 last month, below expectations for 173,000, and the data pointed to continued weakness in the U.S. labor market, which could provide data support for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell accordingly, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) FedWatch tool showed that about 65% of traders now expect the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark interest rate at its September meeting, compared with less than 50% a week ago.

U.S. stocks continued to hit new highs. Nvidia's (NVDA.O) market value exceeded $3 trillion, becoming the third stock to achieve this milestone after Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). Nvidia surpassed Apple to become the second largest company in the world by market value. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes closed at all-time highs, up 1.18% and 1.96% respectively, and the Dow Jones index rose 0.25%.

According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin (BTC) climbed from a low of $70,183 to a high of $71,814 in the afternoon, with an intraday volatility of 2.35%. It has since fallen back to support near $71,000, and as of this writing, the trading price is $71,194, up 0.8% in 24 hours.

Altcoins also benefited from Bitcoin's gains, with about 85% of the top 200 tokens by market cap rising on Wednesday.

Stacks (STX) led the market, up 13.3% and trading at $2.40, followed by Echelon Prime (PRIME), up 10.45% and GMX (GMX), up 10.3%. Notcoin (NOT) fell the most, down 10.4%, Core (CORE) fell 4.6% and JasmyCoin (JASMY) fell 4.2%.

The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.64 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market share is 53.1%.

Spot Bitcoin ETF traffic surges, setting second highest daily record

In the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF sector, inflows reached $886.6 million on Tuesday, with Fidelity products leading the way with $378.7 million, followed by BlackRock 's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with $274.4 million, and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), with $139 million.

The surge in inflows marked the largest single-day increase since March and the second-highest single-day increase since the launch of the BTC ETF in January.

“Fidelity is not messing around. This is the second best day ever,” Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote on Twitter.

Noelle Acheson, author of Crypto is Macro Now, analyzed: "The macro impetus for BTC remains strong, with falling yields and increasing expectations of rate cuts. Both are strong liquidity indicators - BTC remains one of the most sensitive assets to macro liquidity. We may see some large investment platforms finally ready to accept customers on their systems."

Will ATH be tested this week?

Bitcoin has risen for the fifth consecutive day, setting the longest upward momentum since March. Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said, "The recent approval of the key documents of the ETH spot ETF by the United States and the US presidential campaign have also stimulated positive sentiment in cryptocurrencies, driving a surge in Bitcoin trading activity."

Market analyst Bloodgood said, “The surge in inflows occurred five months after the ETF was launched, which means that all those pessimistic predictions that the inflows would only be short-lived after the launch have proven wrong because TradFi will not continue to pay attention to this issue. Long story short: institutions are here and they want your Bitcoin. When the Ethereum ETF starts trading - probably in a few weeks - they will probably start buying ETH too.”

According to a K33 research report, the ETH spot ETF could attract $4 billion in inflows in the first five months, which could lead to a supply shock. This scenario could cause ETH to outperform BTC and break the ETH/BTC two-and-a-half-year downward trend.

Crypto analyst Bloodgood said on the X platform: "Bitcoin is trading at around $71,000, which puts it in a good position to set a new all-time high and break out of price discovery. Remember, if you want to be completely safe, wait for the weekly close before deciding what to do. Two weeks ago, we saw a breakout, but then the weekly candle closed back below the breakout area. On the daily chart, we can see that the price has clearly broken out of the above levels, and the volume has also increased - this is a classic breakout. The daily resistance level is $71,480, which has been tested today. If it breaks out, I believe we will test the ATH (all-time high) this week."

Bitcoin options focus on $75,000 calls

The largest group of open interest in bitcoin options expiring at the end of June is call options with a strike price of $75,000, according to data from the Deribit derivatives exchange.

In addition, on Wednesday, the most traded option on Deribit was a call option with an exercise price of $80,000 and expiring at the end of June, totaling 1,723 contracts with a notional value of more than $123 million.

QCP Capital analysts said: "Our trading desk saw strong bullish follow-through, with a large amount of buying of Bitcoin call options expiring in June, indicating that the options market is betting that the historical high of $74,000 will be decisively broken this month."