This article was originally written by Tony from IPFS Force Zone Investing without research is like playing poker without ever looking at the cards; it is bound to fail! --Peter Lynch , Managing Director of Magellan Funds This article will skip the deduction process and directly give intuitive analysis conclusions by studying the development rules of the TestNet 2.0 network and predicting the possibility of future network development. If the assumptions are met, the deduction process and concepts can be analyzed in detail in the Force Research mortgage series of articles "Must-read dry goods before the space race" and "How much FIL do you need to mortgage to achieve profitability?" . After the article "How much FIL do you need to pledge to make a profit?" was published last week, some careful readers gave feedback, because the article assumes that the network will meet the benchmark supply of 1EB in three months. What will happen if the network delays the pledge income? In response, the author calculated the network's computing power to reach 1EB in 6 months, 9 months, and 12 months, solving the problem of delayed computing power growth and seeking whether there is a possibility of higher income. The entire network has temporarily set the FIL price at 100 yuan, the mining reward has a 20-day freeze period and a 180-day linear release period. In the network growth model with a basic computing power of 100PB, a daily growth of 10PB, and a continuous growth of 7.5PB after reaching 1EB in 30 days, this method has the highest annual profit (184.83%); if the computing power of the entire network grows too slowly in the early stage, the mortgage cost will be too heavy and the investment cost will increase. The rapid growth of computing power in the later stage is conducive to the release of early rewards, thereby increasing the profit margin of the computing power. 1. Review: 90 days (3 months) to meet the 1EB full network baseline supply , the later growth computing power is 7.5PB/day, and the annual profit increases by 17.46 % This time, the proposed total network computing power is: the basic computing power is 100PB, with a daily increase of 10PB, reaching 1EB in 90 days. At the same time, combined with the supply curve of the test network 2.0 phase under the baseline supply, the difficulty of rewarding blocks is about 10 times the original 1PB baseline standard. Therefore, the regression results show that the number of single rewards per day for the baseline supply within 90 days is about 0.0115×T 2 +0.156×T+0.4281 (T is the number of days) By reading the article "How much FIL do I need to pledge to achieve a profit?", you can skip the deduction process and directly calculate the following investment income table. Daily 10PB computing power growth single terabyte computing power revenue trend chart, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-10 From the above results we can see that: Assuming that investors, foundations, 4.25 million FIL and the development team release it linearly every day, the staking cost of early investment in single T computing power on the first day is about 1.1 FIL; The profit during the 90-day period needs to be pledged and further added, accumulating a total of 3.4 FILs pledged; Profits are realized from the 90-180 day stage, and the profit that can be withdrawn is about 19.1 FIL, which is equivalent to a FIL unit price of 100 yuan per coin. Assuming that the cost of purchasing computing power is about 2,000 yuan, the profit is close to the cost of computing power (the management fee is different, which is temporarily ignored, the same below); The profit calculation for 270 days and 365 days is equivalent to a FIL unit price of 100 yuan per coin, and the investment returns per T of computing power are 93.79% and 167.35% respectively (based on 1T computing power cost + 3.4 Fil mortgage cost = 2,340 yuan).
Daily 10PB and 7.5PB computing power growth per T computing power revenue trend chart, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-10 As mentioned last time, the reason why we need to adjust the growth method after meeting 1EB is to consider whether the continuous daily computing power growth of 10PB is in line with the maximum single T profit. Therefore, the author combines the satisfaction of 3EB (200% growth baseline supply demand) by the end of the first year and adjusts the subsequent computing power to the minimum (daily growth of 7.5PB) to try. The above data comparison shows that: In the second and third quarters, the total income of a single T increasing by 10PB per day and 7.5PB per day is similar, but the amount of mortgage in the latter is relatively larger, resulting in the former being able to extract more profit; Starting from the fourth quarter, the daily increase of 7.5PB per T will gradually increase the daily increase of 10PB, mainly because the amount of rewards per T is more; The daily increase of 7.5PB in the first year is 184.83%, which is 17.46% higher than the latter, and is more beneficial to early participants. It can be predicted that as the second year begins, if the situation in the third year is not considered for the time being, the total income of a single T that continues to increase by 7.5PB per day will be higher than the income of a daily increase of 10PB.
Then let’s see what kind of returns will be if the total network computing power reaches 1EB in 6 months, 9 months, and 12 months? 2. 180 days ( 6 months ): The dilemma of excessive mortgage and the breakthrough of the sharing of computing power growth Mortgage burden, thinning returns, annual mortgage cost increase cannot keep up with total return increase As with the assumption of reaching 1EB in the third month, the proposed total network computing power is: the basic computing power is 100PB, with a daily increase of 5PB, and it will reach 1EB in 180 days. At the same time, combined with the supply curve of the test network 2.0 phase under the baseline supply, the difficulty of rewarding blocks is about 40 times the original 1PB baseline standard. Therefore, the regression results show that the number of single rewards per day for the baseline supply within 180 days is about 0.0029×T 2 +0.039×T+0.107 (T is the number of days) Directly solve the following investment income statement. Daily 5PB computing power growth single terabyte computing power revenue trend chart, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-18 The difference in early pledge costs is not big . The pledge cost of investing in a single T of computing power on the first day is about 1.2 FIL, which is similar to the initial pledge of 1EB of the entire network computing power after 90 days. The pre-mortgage cost is increased. The profit during the 90-day period needs to be mortgaged, and it still needs to be added. The total mortgage is 11.4 FIL, which is 7.9 FIL more than the assumption of reaching 1EB in 90 days; The mortgage and income increased simultaneously, and the total income increased by 5.6 FIL, which could not keep up with the mortgage cost increase of 7.9 FIL . It is the same as the 90-day full network computing power reaching 1EB, and it starts to realize cashable profits in 90-180 days, and the mortgage part is gradually increasing. The annual total income increased by about 5.6 FIL compared with the 90-day full network computing power reaching 1EB, which could not keep up with the 7.9 FIL increase in mortgage cost.
Reasonable computing power growth to reverse excessive mortgage and promote profit increase Daily 5PB and 11.5PB computing power growth per terabyte computing power revenue trend chart, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-18 In order to check whether there is a better way to maximize the profit of a single T, the baseline standard requirement of meeting 3EB by the end of the year is also brought in, so the daily computing power growth comparison of 5PB and 11.5PB after meeting 1EB of the total network computing power is introduced, as follows: The amortization of the mortgage cost in the third quarter led to a partial increase in the profit gap. It can be seen that in the third quarter, the profit of the daily computing power growth of 11.5PB began to exceed the daily computing power growth of 5PB, mainly because the growth of computing power led to a reduction in mortgage costs; The daily 11.5PB first-year profit increase is 12.62% higher than the former. It can be seen that although the total income of the daily 11.5PB computing power growth is not as much as the former, the amortized mortgage cost is reduced, so the net profit is 9.1 FIL more, exceeding 12.62%; Slow growth in computing power will lead to a heavy burden on mortgage costs. As can be seen from the third and fourth quarters, the rapid growth in computing power can, to a certain extent, spread the mortgage costs, convert the cashable profit FIL, and thus promote the growth of profit margins.
3. 270 days ( 9 months ): The later stage of the base supply, expansion of computing power, equalization of collateral, and redemption of profits As in the above assumption, the proposed total network computing power is: the basic computing power is 100PB, with a daily growth of 3.5PB, and it will reach 1EB in 270 days. At the same time, combined with the supply curve of the test network 2.0 phase under the baseline supply, the difficulty of rewarding blocks is about 100 times the original 1PB baseline standard. Therefore, the regression results show that the number of single rewards per day for the baseline supply within 270 days is about 0.0012×T 2 +0.0156×T+0.0428 (T is the number of days) Calculate the following investment income statement. Daily 3.5PB computing power growth single terabyte computing power revenue trend chart, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-18 It can be concluded that: The 90-day mortgage cost continues to increase by 5.7 FIL . The mortgage cost of reaching 1EB network computing power in 9 months continues to increase compared to 6 months. Because the computing power growth is too slow and the income is small, the mortgage cost per T computing power increases by 5.7 FIL. The annual yield of withdrawable Fil is 8.9% lower than the 1EB annual yield in June. Although the latter annual total yield of 111.5 FIL is more than that in 6 months, the heavy mortgage cost directly leads to a decrease of 5.9 FIL, about 8.9%.
Daily 3.5PB and 21PB computing power growth per terabyte computing power revenue trend chart, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-18 After meeting the 1EB baseline supply requirement, the daily computing power growth is compared with 21PB (meeting the baseline supply of 3EB in the second year) and 3.5PB: 21PB computing power growth amortizes the mortgage and grabs the profit of 15.5 FIL . The rapid computing power growth in the fourth quarter effectively released the mortgage cost and turned it into profit. It can be seen from the comparison that the mortgage FIL of 21PB computing power growth on the 365th day released 17.0 FIL earlier than 3.5PB. Although the total FIL income is not as much as the latter, the income is 15.5 FIL more.
Next, we speculated on the worst scenario before going online. Under the premise of satisfying the 1EB computing power of the entire network, what would happen if the profit reached 1EB on the last day? IV. 365 days (12 months ): Mortgage becomes a " disease ", resulting in high returns and low extractable profits The proposed total network computing power: the basic computing power is 100PB, with a daily increase of 2.6PB, reaching 1EB in 365 days. At the same time, combined with the supply curve of the test network 2.0 phase under the baseline supply, the difficulty of rewarding blocks is about 160 times the original 1PB baseline standard. Therefore, the regression results show that the number of single rewards per day for the baseline supply part within 365 days is approximately: 0.0007×T 2 +0.0097×T+0.0268 (T is the number of days) Daily 2.6PB computing power growth per T computing power revenue trend chart, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-18 The 90-day mortgage cost increased by 5.8 FILs again . The mortgage cost of reaching 1EB network computing power in 12 months continued to increase compared to 9 months. Because the computing power grew too slowly and the income was small, the mortgage cost per T computing power increased by 5.8 FILs.
The total income is high, the collateral is high, and the profit that can be withdrawn is low . On the 365th day, although the total income of the daily 2.6PB computing power growth is 37 FIL more than the daily increase of 10PB (1EB in 90 days), because its total collateral cost is also burdened with 37 more FIL collateral, the actual profit that can be withdrawn is almost unchanged;
5. Annual profit game: 1EB in 90 days, 7.5PB /day after adjustment , and the daily computing power growth of 184.83% won the first place in the high profit list Comparison of the benchmark supply standards and annual yields of different allocations in 90 days, 180 days, 270 days and 365 days, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-18 From the above, we can know: 184.83% is the highest annual profit. The highest annual profit is 184.83% when the computing power reaches 1EB in 90 days and then increases by 7.5PB per day. The minimum mortgage amount for a single T is about 19.73 FIL, which is the lowest cost. Slow computing power growth will increase investment costs and risks while also reducing returns. Although the total FIL return is the highest when the computing power grows by 2.6PB per day and reaches 1EB on the 365th day, the cost of a single T mortgage is too high because the computing power of the entire network grows too slowly, which directly leads to less FIL that can actually be withdrawn, and mortgaging a large amount of FIL will result in high expenditure costs and risks; The solution to ease the mortgage burden and increase profits when computing power grows. "180 days to reach 1EB, then 11.5PB growth" and "270 days to reach 1EB, then 21PB growth" are both adjusted computing power growth, with an annual profit rate of nearly 160%. If the two do not adjust the computing power, it can be seen that the computing power growth is too slow, resulting in excessive computing power mortgage costs and reduced profits that can be extracted; the rapid growth of computing power in the later period can quickly share the cost of mortgage and release the profits of mortgage; The uncertainty of FIL price increases the risk of increasing the mortgage cost. By comparing the slow growth of the total network computing power to meet the total network computing power of 1EB, it can be seen that the slower the computing power growth, the higher the mortgage cost. If the FIL price changes too much, the later benefits may not be worth the loss; at the same time, the yield rate will gradually decline.
In summary, it is difficult for us to follow the development path in the concept in actual situations. The slower the growth of the computing power of the entire network, the more likely it is that the mortgage cost will continue to increase and the annual profit will decrease. Rapid growth in the later stage can effectively release the mortgage cost and realize profit extraction. When the growth is too fast, the growth rate can be reduced to match the benchmark supply standard in the second year, thereby increasing the income of single T computing power. According to the author's observation, the supply is the largest when the computing power meets the baseline supply standard. The rewards for investing in computing power before and after this period are higher, but the costs are also different due to the different market unit prices at the time, and the risks will increase accordingly. There are also a series of problems such as accumulated effective computing power. PS: This article is for research and analysis only and is not an investment advice. Readers are advised to invest with caution. If the data in this article is different from the previous article, this article is the main one, because the deduction method in this article is consistent with the previous article, and the data and algorithm are more accurate and optimized. Statement: This article is an original article from IPFS Force District. The copyright belongs to IPFS Force District. It may not be reproduced without authorization. Violators will be held accountable according to law.
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