VCs harvested by the cryptocurrency circle...

All victories come from the persistence of faith. Believe in the power of belief. We will never be disappointed. Welcome to follow Starry Sky Value Investment. There must always be someone who looks up at the stars.

Overnight, Bitcoin rebounded from the bottom and stood above 98K again. Before writing this article, I happened to see the daily data sent by my assistant in the member group. In the past three days, Bitcoin ETF has outflowed nearly $1.2 billion, with a net outflow of $338 million per day. On the contrary, Ethereum has become a net inflow, with $53.54 million coming in. It's a bit mysterious.

At this point, many people are cursing Ethereum for failing to break through 4K. Even Massari’s 24-25 industry report summary has a special chapter to criticize Ethereum, saying that Solana is too tight, too old, and has no new ideas. Anyway, there are a lot of negative news. Then I just glanced at it and I can’t bear to read it anymore. I suggest you don’t read it.

What is the real situation? Putting aside the development of the Ethereum ecosystem in recent years, what is the situation purely based on the price? Today, in the member group, this matter was still being said as a cold joke:

"At the end of December 2020, four years ago, the main uptrend of the crypto bull market had already begun, with the price of Bitcoin at $29,000, about 145% of the highest point in the previous bull market . The price of Ethereum was 760u, 54% of the highest point in the previous bull market. Now another round of halving bull market has begun, with the price of Bitcoin at $98,000, 142% of the highest point in the previous bull market, and the price of Ethereum at 3,500u, 71.8% of the highest point in the previous cycle ."

The data is here. Ethereum is not only not lagging behind, but is even stronger than last year. It just means that as the market value increases, the multiple of this round will most likely be smaller than the previous round, it's that simple. Many people make investment decisions based on their intuition, and how can they do well if they are vague about this and that?

Even in Solana, which is highly recognized by everyone, I think most people actually haven’t made any money. They are listening to this and that, constantly switching positions, and moving around. The more they move, the less coins they have. In the end, they come to ask for guidance, asking me if this coin can be saved, and if that coin can be saved?

There is a high probability that it is hopeless. I am not talking about the currency, but the people. Don’t think too highly of me. We are all retail investors. I just may have a little more money, but the essence is the same. The concepts and resources of retail investors have almost no impact on the market.

Don't believe it? Here's another piece of data. From December 11 to December 18, the number of Bitcoin holding addresses increased by 103,000. Looking at the K-line, the worst drop was during this short period. Why? The addresses with the largest increase were those holding 0 to 0.01 coins, with a total increase of only 373.59 Bitcoins, currently worth $36 million . At the same time, the number of Bitcoins decreased by 46,078 when one of the top ten addresses decreased; the number of Bitcoins decreased by 19 when the number of addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 coins decreased, with a decrease of 29,124 Bitcoins.

The market is determined by the big players, which is the reason for the decline. But the reason why the decline cannot be stopped is that there are also big players who are taking over. The number of addresses holding 100-1000 coins increased by 138, and the number of coins held increased by 90,000.

Retail investors are really in a precarious situation in this market. They don’t have many trump cards to play and can’t stand the turmoil. In the last round of bull-bear cycle, a friend took out 6 million to buy the bottom. I told him to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum. Now the market is going crazy, so I have to congratulate them and show off in front of others. But when I asked, I found out that I still lost 820,000. I was surprised, but after asking, I understood.

The reason is that, first of all, I didn’t buy enough U, I only bought 1.5 million, then I didn’t listen to all the information, I only bought 500,000 ETH, and then I devoted myself to studying various alpha opportunities, Bitcoin’s second-layer ecosystem, TON ecosystem, Solana & meme, LSD, and basically lost all the rest. It is said that I still made money with 500,000 ETH as a backup. Fortunately, I heard all kinds of rumors and news, and kept switching positions, operating like a tiger...

Of course, there are still many people who are willing to follow my advice and guidance. They relied on our strategies in the bear market and made drastic adjustments to their chips. They exchanged a lot of bitcoins and are very comfortable now, and will be even more comfortable in the future.

Many people like to brag, "I made a lot of money on small coins with my knowledge." In fact, it's just luck. People with enough knowledge will definitely choose Bitcoin. Let alone some KOLs and bloggers who don't understand. I met several top OGs these days. They made a lot of money by setting up funds. They have more industry resources and insider information than us, but none of them outperformed Bitcoin.

Earlier, I talked to a top VC in Shanghai, whose name I won’t mention. Their investment research report is very forward-looking, saying that if the ETF is approved in this round, it will bring at least 30 billion dollars of incremental funds to Bitcoin, which is a very strong judgment. However, the problem is that they chose to go all-in on the second layer of Bitcoin. It’s not that they are stupid, because if they only buy Bitcoin, they will not be explained to the LP, after all, they can buy it themselves.

As a result, many institutions have stopped emphasizing the rate of return. On the one hand, they really have never run Bitcoin and are too embarrassed to talk about it; on the other hand, it may make LPs think "I might as well buy Bitcoin myself"... So VCs are all saying "support innovation" and "witness the future of the future" and so on...

Then the projects that were invested in were all locked up, and the first to run were market makers, project owners, and airdrop parties. They wanted to use the Internet's way of playing, but the results were extremely tragic, especially the third- and fourth-rate VCs, who were completely bullied. It's not over yet, VC companies have no business, so they start to speculate in cryptocurrencies, play MEME, play this and that, and lose money like leeks...

So, if you want to speculate in cryptocurrencies and small coins, these VCs have a hard time. Why do retail investors hold a large position? Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, if you want to make money, you have to spend more than ten hours a day in the crypto industry and have your own analytical skills. Many people have their own jobs and don’t have that much time. The best way is to configure Bitcoin and use the remaining money to copy the homework of those who can get the results, so as not to waste the dividends of the early industry.