Bitcoin Price Analysis: Another Target for New Highs

Bitcoin price was pulled back to support last night, and in early Asian trading on Monday, the upside target was around $238 (Bitfinex). This offensive may not end here but it needs to retrace soon - no matter what the big trend is.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitfinex 4-hour chart

From xbt.social report earlier today:

The market price found support at the intersection of the 4-hour 200-period moving average and the golden section, and is now advancing upward again. This rise may only be corrected by the interaction of regular/reverse divergences on the hourly chart, and we should see a new high, reaching the target discussed yesterday and shown in the purple circle on the above chart.

The looming RSI divergence at the next high could lead to a stronger reversal. The price is now close to the upper limit of the consolidation range, so the next few days will be critical: if the price climbs above $250, it will break out of the consolidation range and may continue to rise after testing and finding new support at $250.

The future should not be viewed as a fixed outcome, even for those events that are destined to occur and are predictable, but rather as a range of possibilities that can be viewed as a distributed probability based on insights into their respective likelihoods. – Howard Marks

Summarize

The day's market reminds us that we are playing a probability game. Whether we adopt a conservative strategy in a volatile market or a more aggressive strategy in a trending market, this motto is what we must follow. Before the recent $5 increase, we had no reason to believe that we were in an upward market. Prices have been fluctuating around a market low, and there is a certain probability of additional downside risk.

Even now, we don't actually know if we are in a trending market because price has not moved out of a consolidation range, and the upside angle looks more shallow than any of its previous price movements. So we expect the market to continue to consolidate - until we see evidence to the contrary. "Patience. Patience. Patience." said Jesse Livermore.

There is nothing wrong with staying out of the market and doing nothing when the market is in a sideways trend like we are in now. This is how we can protect our account funds from losses instead of just throwing our money around with a lower probability of success.