Li Xiaolai: Why I am cautiously optimistic about blockchain applications

Disclaimer : I have absolutely no intention of "ruining the party". For blockchain applications, just like Bitcoin, I have always maintained a cautious and long-term optimism. However, if you want to speak, you should try to tell the truth, right?

Is blockchain technology a new technology?

Even so. In fact, the encryption algorithm, P2P file transfer, transaction confirmation topology, etc., which constitute the components of "blockchain technology", have all been used for at least 10 years. It's just that in the past people mainly used P2P technology to download pornographic movies, and now a group of geeks use P2P technology to download ledgers (i.e., the so-called "blocks")...

Are there any successful applications of blockchain technology at present?

Bitcoin itself is the first and currently the most successful application of blockchain technology. Are there any others? From this perspective, all altcoins are actually, all secondary tokens are actually, as for whether they are successful or not, it is hard to say... It seems that Bitcoin is indeed "a standout" at the moment.

Most blockchain application proposals are basically useless for the following reasons:

1. Open source conflicts with commercialization to some extent

If you don’t open source, no one will play with you; if you open source, you won’t be able to completely monopolize this thing... It’s quite difficult, right?

2. The underlying logic doesn’t make sense

I am a big company, and I want to make a P2P, decentralized application... But this thing must belong to me...

3. The few truly promising projects require specific people to get started

It is relatively easy for Internet technical talents and operation talents to rush out to start O2O, because it is equivalent to a group of people with higher knowledge reserves rushing into another field to cut the pumpkin with a sharp knife; but when they rush into the real or virtual financial insurance field, their knowledge reserves may not be enough? Who knows who is holding the sharp knife and who is the pumpkin...

4. Naturally suitable blockchain application scenarios face many obstacles

For example, gambling is a scenario that is very suitable for developing blockchain applications. a) It is necessary to disclose accounts, and b) it is completely composed of automated contracts... However, these scenarios always have various obstacles that prevent ordinary people from participating.

5. Decentralization and public disclosure are not always necessary

The disclosure of central bank accounts is indeed something we aspire to; but for ordinary small credit unions and ordinary commercial banks, it is not important whether their accounts are public. Copyright distribution may require a decentralized solution, and decentralization of copyright recognition is not easy and not necessarily necessary. Most of the fantasies about blockchain technology are basically the result of "holding a hammer in hand, everything looks like a nail".

Bitcoin has no value if it has no application?

For a long time, a common mainstream "questioning" argument has been that if Bitcoin has no "application", then Bitcoin has no value.

This argument is quite confusing to me, and I don’t even find the need to refute it. Let’s temporarily admit that a currency needs applications to be valuable. Then who can tell me what are the applications of the US dollar? What are the applications of the RMB? I really don’t know, and I really want to know…

What’s the point of “de-bitcoinization” when you have nothing to do?

Another term I’ve heard recently is “debitcoinization.” This is even harder for me to understand. Why debitcoinization? You guys do your thing? Why is there a sudden “you-or-die” attitude?

Marc Andreessesen, the boss of A16Z, recently sent a tweet saying,

Many large companies want to build a blockchain application but don’t want Bitcoin. This is like saying in 1994, “I want to be connected, but can I not use the Internet?”

Well, I think that's a really brilliant analogy, simple, direct and clear.