Coin Zone Trends: Bitcoin Price Trends Based on Big Data This Week (2016-04-15)

1. Price Trends
Online discussions don't involve much discussion about halving, but offline discussions are concerned about the impact of halving on prices. Faced with various uncertainties, there may be more investors who remain on the sidelines. In the past few days, the market has been trading sideways with small fluctuations, hovering around 2760. The continued sideways trend is a test for those who short spot. The handling fee for short spot is 0.1%. According to the current price, the cost of shorting is 2.7 yuan more for one day of sideways trading. The sideways trend has little impact on the cost of those who go long without leverage or play futures, but it still tests patience. Perhaps after a wave of market pull-ups or suppression, those who are still bearish in the market will turn bullish.
2. The newcomer index looks at the amount of funds entering the market
The average level of new entrants in the past few days is much higher than the average level after the Spring Festival. The amount of funds brought by the recent entrants may be enough to maintain the current coin price.

3. The long-short index looks at the market's recognition of the currency price
Yesterday's hourly long-short index showed that the market's view was slightly bullish. The data for the whole day was not very biased towards the short side. The rise in the price of the currency may still rely on off-market funds.
The above data is updated in real time, and the chart was updated at 10:00 on April 15. We will continue to observe how the data will develop in the future.
4. Is automated Bitcoin trading a sure win?
It is understood that there may be more than a thousand automated trading robots running in the domestic Bitcoin market. But is automated trading a sure win? Currently, there are mainly the following types of automated trading robots:

1) Hedging arbitrage between platforms

2) Quantitative trading based on statistics

3) There are three types of quantitative trading based on data analysis. Among them, hedging arbitrage between platforms (similar to arbitrage), if you don’t calculate the interest on borrowing money and coins, it can be said that it is basically a sure win. However, the current market capacity is limited. It is estimated that there are at least five companies (not individuals) in the industry doing this business. Quantitative trading based on statistics and data analysis cannot be said to be a sure win, but it is risky.
Each strategist has a different way of thinking and knowledge, and the strategies they write are also different. Theoretically, there are infinite trading strategies. Moreover, strategies are not universal. The trading of strategies may be opposite in different market environments. For example, a strategy that is basically stable in a bull market may be "steady to lose" in a bear market. When we are in the market, we usually don't know whether it is a bull market or a bear market, and the same is true for strategies. Even if the backtested annual return of a strategy reaches more than 50%, it may not be that high in the actual environment. The market environment is complex and changeable, and there is no universal strategy.
Automated strategy trading is not a zero-sum game. Strategy trading relies on the strategy engineer’s understanding of the market, mastery of mathematical modeling knowledge, and control of various information in a specific market.
PS: Cryptocurrency investment is particularly risky, including but not limited to large coin hoarders dumping their coins, dealers manipulating the price of coins, and systemic risks of cryptocurrencies themselves. This article is for reference only. The market changes 24 hours a day, and the description in this article also has certain time limits and limitations. Investors are responsible for their own investments, and the author of this article or related websites are not responsible for the specific investments of investors.
---------

The article is provided by @币区势