Coin Zone Trends: Bitcoin Price Trends Based on Big Data This Week (2016-07-08)

The halving will lead to a big drop, and it will take time for the market to recover

1. Market trends

The current price of Bitcoin is 4300 yuan. After falling from 4550 to the first support of 4480 yesterday , the price of Bitcoin fell directly to the second support of 4320 again . In the past 24 hours, the maximum drop was around 4000, with a drop of 12% , and continued to fluctuate by about 7% per day. This drop has caused all kinds of comments, and the extreme "kids" who just entered the market even saw a drop to 500 yuan. The main comments include: 1. The benefits of halving have been used up; 2. After halving, Bitcoin is in danger of 51% attack; 3. A certain country has regulated Bitcoin again.

Halving is a long-term positive, not that the price of the currency will suddenly change greatly on the day of halving. Last month, we analyzed that the fluctuations in June were too large, and the market was more internal. The next big market may be two or three months later at the earliest. Halving will force some miners who continue to be optimistic about Bitcoin to buy Bitcoin instead of continuing to mine. The combined computing power of several major domestic mining pools has reached 70% . Many people are worried that domestic mining pools will jointly launch a 51% attack to destroy the Bitcoin network. Miners in mining pools rely on the Bitcoin network to survive. It is hard to imagine that a group will unite to do something that harms others and does not benefit themselves. As for the recent news that a certain European country (?) has tightened its supervision on Bitcoin and blocked its funding channels. The fact is that since the end of last year, domestic Bitcoin trading platforms have been actively cooperating with the supervision of relevant national agencies, and since the beginning of the year, funding channels have been subject to relatively large restrictions. The platform has put forward asset proof requirements for ordinary investors, including video identity authentication and printing bank fund flow, but Bitcoin has still risen from 3,000 yuan to more than 4,000 yuan.

Many new friends do not know how to choose the time to open a position . In fact, there is only one standard: open a position when the price breaks through. There are two types of price breakthroughs: A. Go long when the resistance breaks through or the moving average crosses; B. Go short when the support breaks through or the moving average crosses. When the price of the currency breaks through for the first time, we can choose to wait and see whether the price can stay at the breakthrough position or whether the price of the currency moves one step further in the direction of the breakthrough. It is a good operating habit to open an order only when the price breaks through. Most of the remaining time is spent waiting, and there is no need to watch the market all the time. For new friends, the author still recommends holding more Bitcoin, observing this market more, and doing short-term trading after you are sure (I learned that several friends who have been in the market for one or two months have lost more than 70% in short-term trading).

Yesterday's sharp drop shows that the market is indeed short of funds and needs time to recover. Short-term support is 4200 and 4100 , and resistance is 4350 and 4450 .

2. The long-short index shows the recognition of the value of Bitcoin by the OTC market

The chart shows the hourly long and short index. When it fell to around 4200 yesterday, the market had a strong bottom-hunting sentiment, and then rebounded to 4300. When it was sideways around 4300, the market had a strong bearish sentiment, and it once fell to around 4000 yuan in the middle of the night, and has now quickly rebounded to 4300. At present, the market has a strong bottom-hunting sentiment.

3. The newcomer index looks at the relative amount of entry funds

The chart shows the newcomer index calculated hourly. There is no big surprise in the newcomer index, and the market needs to add more funds.