Bitcoin entanglement August 22, 2016: The consolidation is taking shape & 7 thoughts

It has been 20 days since the plunge on August 2. The fluctuation range has not been large in these 20 days. Now it is time for the Bollinger Bands to close. We need to pay special attention to it in the next few days. In terms of direction, according to experience , if this position consolidates to the end, the probability of going up is high (greater than 50%, the central arrangement is: bottom-top-middle).

Since 2013, the cryptocurrency market has never lacked opportunities. The blowout in 2013 is not worth mentioning; although 2014 was a bear market, there was a 60% rebound; in 2015, Litecoin took advantage of the halving to rebound in retaliation; in 2016, Ethereum and Bitcoin both had opportunities.

Some details can be summarized to capture the next opportunity:

1. Litecoin’s rebound in 2015 was not entirely due to the halving, but also because it fell too much from 380 yuan to 5 yuan, with almost no decent rebound in the middle, and the energy it bred was also great;

2. Ethereum’s development cost and concept are higher than those of “copycat coins” such as Litecoin. Although its application scale cannot be compared with Bitcoin, the application scale of Litecoin is also very small. In comparison, Ethereum’s support will not be too low. However, the hype is inseparable from the hard work of the operation team.

3. New Economic Coin and Steemit are unpredictable and are the result of a high degree of control (it is said that Steemit controls 99%). It is difficult to repeat operations without inside information.

4. Not every coin that imitates Ethereum has seen a sharp rise, such as Lisk. The reason may be imitation, and the mining mechanism is not POW.

5. Dogecoin has been lying on the ground, which is a little unexpected to me. Is it because the chips are too dispersed? But Dogecoin will not return to zero, so you can buy it at a low price.

6. The private blockchain developed by the company is very popular, but the cryptocurrency circle cannot invest, and I don’t know how those companies make money. I recently read some white papers, such as the one of Hyperledger, which did not emphasize tokens (maybe not, it is similar to the idea of ​​Ripple network), but added some functions that public blockchains do not have, such as permission management. In fact, I wonder why we don’t use traditional databases. Perhaps these distributed ledgers themselves are new distributed database models.

7. Ethereum has almost squeezed out the oil of blockchain. There are no tokens to invest in distributed ledgers. I can’t think of the next hot spot. Relatively speaking, Bitcoin expansion has become the only remaining topic, but we should not underestimate the imagination of the currency circle. Maybe someone will develop a new (money-making) model in a few months.

The cryptocurrency world originated from Bitcoin. Without the birth of Bitcoin, there might not be the word "crypto world". However, the cryptocurrency world is also a place where demons are rampant. All the big and small fraudsters want to get a piece of the pie. People probably love and hate these demons. Opportunities and risks coexist. It is the best era and the worst era.