The international financial market is constantly plagued by black swans. Will blockchain usher in spring amid the turmoil?

In the early morning of December 15, 2016, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike. This is another rate hike after the Federal Reserve raised the target fund rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%-0.5% in December 2015. The current federal fund rate is 0.5%~0.75%. The Federal Open Market Committee expects three more rate hikes next year, and the market expects two rate hikes.

The Fed's interest rate hike means that the supply of US dollar funds in the US market will decrease, and the expected interest rate and fund recovery rate will also rise, and part of the cross-border funds will flow back to the United States. In addition, after Trump won the US election, he planned to launch a US version of the "4 trillion" rescue plan, and in the future, he will invest 550 billion US dollars in the US infrastructure sector to stimulate the development of the US economy. After Trump took office, his sharp words turned moderate, which cooled the market's risk aversion to Trump.

For the yen, gold, silver, bitcoin and futures commodity prices, which also have safe-haven properties, the price will fall in the short term due to the impact of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. In fact, since the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has been seriously "spoiled", the interest rate hike is considered inevitable, and the market has digested the negative impact on bitcoin and precious metals to a certain extent.

After the release of the November FOMC meeting minutes, the probability of a rate hike in December is expected to be 100%. As a result, gold ETF holdings continued to decline, with the asset size shrinking from 85.5 tons to 1,902 tons in November, the lowest level since June this year. Gold ETF holdings in December are expected to record the largest monthly decline since June 2013.

According to historical data, in December last year, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate, which was the first time since June 2006. Bitcoin also experienced a short-term decline after the Fed's rate hike was good for the dollar. According to data from OKCoin, after the Fed's rate hike at the end of 2015, Bitcoin fell and bottomed out at 2,335 yuan in February 2016.

Bitcoin price trend since 2015

Zhou Yupeng, a gold medal analyst of NetEase Precious Metals, believes that due to the constant turmoil in the international currency market, from Brexit to the Italian constitutional referendum, coupled with the serious over-issuance of currencies in various countries, the precious metals market is bullish in the long run as a safe haven. Since 2015-2016, the historical data of the Bitcoin market has also confirmed the trend of currencies with strong safe-haven properties. According to OK Coin data, Bitcoin experienced a round of "bull market" in 2016, reaching a peak of 5,555 yuan in December this year, with an annual increase of 138%.

In June this year, Brexit greatly stimulated the surge in Bitcoin prices. As black swans such as Brexit and unexpected US elections continue to appear and uncertainties in the international financial market increase, market risk aversion continues to strengthen.

The Bitcoin mining process requires huge computing power, which consumes a lot of electricity and hardware. The supply of Bitcoin mining is relatively stable. In addition, the Bitcoin system is now spread all over the world. The stability and decentralization of the blockchain also make Bitcoin a digital currency with strong hedging properties. The price of Bitcoin is also affected by the market's judgment on the popularity of digital currencies. While the trend of asset digitization and global currency decentralization is optimistic, driven by international financial turmoil, blockchain is believed to reshape the future financial industry. (36Kr)