Investor: The price of the currency may fall in the next month, why should I still insist on buying?

To predict the price of Bitcoin, you need more than a crystal ball. However, if you have enough intelligence, you can probably make some reasonable guesses. I think that within the next month or so, the price of Bitcoin is likely to fall. Here are the main reasons.

Why the decline

First of all, I would like to say that I would like to see the price of the currency fall or remain in a stable state. I don't want the price of the currency to rise instantly. In this way, I can buy more Bitcoin because I know that this asset will definitely be valuable in the future.

I am not a speculator or a short-term player, so why do I have to expect Bitcoin to rise to $2,000 or even $3,000 in 2017? I will not cash out the coins I bought immediately. When the price of a potential asset falls to the lowest point, I hope to buy a large amount. You should do the same.

Now let's take a look at some events that may affect the price of the currency in the near future. First of all, today, Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States. In recent weeks, his views on the future of US trade policy have led many analysts to believe that the dollar is about to appreciate.

Therefore, before Trump's official trade policy is released, speculators are likely to turn to the US dollar market. The appreciation of the US dollar will lead to a decline in the price of Bitcoin, so fewer and fewer US dollars are needed to buy Bitcoin.

Chinese regulators are gradually turning their attention to domestic Bitcoin exchanges, and will update the results of the entry inspection this week. This move by the government has already affected the domestic demand for Bitcoin. According to the Beijing Youth Daily, "three major Bitcoin platforms violated the regulations on financing and currency lending, and may resume charging fees in the future." In the coming period, the strengthening of supervision and the increase in transaction fees are likely to further reduce the demand for Bitcoin among Chinese investors.

The above factors coupled with the appreciation of the US dollar may cause the Bitcoin market to stagnate or even decline in the first quarter of this year. Time will tell.

The good news

The Winklevoss brothers' ETF may be a big boon for Bitcoin. As of March 11, if the Bitcoin ETF is successfully approved, a large amount of funds from Wall Street will flow into the Bitcoin market. However, this is actually a double-edged sword. Because if the Bitcoin ETF is rejected, it is likely to cause a short-term drop in the price of the currency.

Finally, I still think that the price of Bitcoin will exceed 1500美元by the end of the year, but the development speed in the first half of this year will definitely be relatively slow. The release of innovative technologies such as Segregated Verification (SegWit) and Lightning Network can increase investor demand for Bitcoin and make this digital currency more usable, but this is all in the second half of the year. There is no doubt that once these technologies are officially launched, the price of the currency will definitely rise.

If you believe in the long-term development of Bitcoin, it doesn’t really matter whether these technologies are launched. However, if you only view Bitcoin as a short-term speculative tool, I believe you will not gain anything during this period.

My predictions may be wrong, but I once accurately predicted that the price of the currency would rise rapidly in the new year (2017) and a "super bull market" would occur.

( This article does not constitute investment advice. For personal investment issues, please consult a personal financial advisor. )