BIP148 “Independence Day” will pose the biggest threat to Bitcoin

After the New York Consensus was signed, the community discussed specific implementation measures and successfully formulated a specific plan for the implementation of the New York Consensus: SegWit2x will be launched on July 21 , isolated verification will be activated in mid-August, and a 2M hard fork expansion will be carried out in mid-November. Everything went smoothly, but a very small number of Bitcoin developers began to actively promote BIP148 ( user-activated soft fork ) in an attempt to prevent the smooth implementation of the New York Consensus.

BIP148 is a typical UASF (User Activated Soft Fork) that encourages users to force Bitcoin miners to the version of Segregated Witness. The simple understanding is that BIP148 attempts to push Segregated Witness to complete activation without sufficient support. Some of these node users have been running their Segregated Witness version of Bitcoin software since November last year . According to statistics, more than 80% of Bitcoin nodes are now ready to activate Segregated Witness (SegWit) . However, these hash powers support the New York Consensus and look forward to activating Segregated Witness in the form of SegWit2x , which has received widespread support from the community. A few Bitcoin developers hope to use BIP148 to activate Segregated Witness before SegWit2x activates Segregated Witness in order to prevent the implementation of the New York Consensus.

User activated soft forks are nothing new. As early as March this year , anonymous contributor shaolinfry posted a user activated soft fork on the Bitcoin developer mailing list . This method was mainly used to solve the deadlock in the Bitcoin expansion dispute and bypass miners, but it did not receive much response from the community at that time. After the Core development team's proposed segregated witness expansion plan was opposed by the community, some people turned their attention to Litecoin. Litecoin founder Charlie Lee first advocated the activation of segregated verification through user activated soft fork ( UASF ) in the community , but it ended in failure. Litecoin achieved segregated verification through online voting and community roundtable meetings. User activated soft forks were gradually forgotten by people.

However, after the New York Consensus was signed, some developers who were unwilling to lose their rights began to advocate BIP148 (user-activated soft fork), activating segregated verification by user-activated soft fork on August 1. Supporters even promoted August 1 as "Bitcoin Independence Day", while according to the New York Consensus implementation schedule, segregated verification will be activated in mid-August, which is obviously to prevent the implementation of the New York Consensus. There is evidence that the core development team supports user-activated soft fork and is suspected of being the driving force behind the BIP148 plan.

User-activated soft fork is an imperfect solution. It does not have a complete and reliable set of codes, nor has it gained broad consensus in the community. The "economic majority" mentioned does not have a specific measurement standard, and it has not been supported by some well-known trading platforms and wallet service providers in the world. However, the slogans such as "Bitcoin Independence Day", "Economic Majority", "Freedom" and "User Decision" put forward by BIP148 supporters are very inflammatory and deceptive. Some newbies who do not know the truth sound very reasonable and think it is a good solution. They are easily deceived and lose their bitcoins. On August 1, due to the lack of computing power support, the activation of BIP148 will also split the Bitcoin blockchain, splitting Bitcoin into 148 coins and Bitcoin. BIP148 supporters also hinted that they are not afraid of Bitcoin splitting.

At the same time, BIP148 also has some fatal weaknesses. The total network computing power support is small, the block speed is slow, and the Bitcoin transaction congestion will become very serious; there is a lack of replay protection measures, it is easy to be attacked, and coin loss is inevitable; it poses a threat to the implementation of the New York Consensus and is hostile to the opinions of the mainstream Bitcoin community; it does not have a broad consensus, has a low support rate, and faces a greater risk of forks; on August 1, all Bitcoin exchanges in the community will also need to close the recharge and withdrawal functions, affecting the normal operation of the platform.