Bitcoin price surged 10 times after halving in 2016. Will the same thing happen again in 2020?

The Bitcoin mining reward was halved from 50 bitcoins to 25 bitcoins in 2012, and from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins in 2016. As time comes to 2020, the block reward will be halved again to 6.25 bitcoins.

Every four years, the Bitcoin block reward is halved, and each halving reduces the speed at which miners mine Bitcoin. Although there are many reasons for the rise in Bitcoin prices , looking back in the past, the halving of the block reward is often the main reason for the rise in Bitcoin prices .
Bitcoin price before the first block reward halving: $2.55
Bitcoin price one year after first block reward halving: $1,037
Bitcoin price before the second block reward halving: $268
Bitcoin price one year before second block reward halving: $2,525
The second Bitcoin block reward halving occurred in July 2016, and in the year that followed, the price of Bitcoin soared nearly 10 times, from $268 to $2,525.

Bitcoin price movement before and after the second block reward halving

Now the time for the next Bitcoin block reward halving in 2020 is getting closer. The current price of Bitcoin is US$7,886. When Bitcoin completes the block reward halving in 2020, it is likely to usher in another good market trend.
Past rules cannot be called coincidences, nor are they a guarantee of future market trends. However, reasonable analysis through such rules will give us more confidence.
Regarding the second Bitcoin block reward halving, Jiang Zhuoer once made an interesting investment suggestion based on his personal experience in 2015. In fact, few people were exposed to Bitcoin at that time, or there were too few people willing to use Bitcoin as an investment, so in the comments of this answer, many people only realized the value of this paragraph afterwards.

An answer by Jiang Zhuoer on Zhihu in 2015

In addition, Jiang Zhuoer also predicted at the end of 2018 that a new round of bull market will start after the Bitcoin block reward is halved in 2020. The main basis for Jiang Zhuoer's predictions is that Bitcoin will have specific market patterns when the block reward is halved.
The reason why this happens with Bitcoin is that the halving of the Bitcoin block reward has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. If the demand for Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market remains the same, or if the market demand continues to grow due to the current economic situation, the supply of Bitcoin is decreasing, which could reasonably lead to a surge in the price of Bitcoin .
Given that the third Bitcoin block reward halving will take place next year, some crypto fund teams are quite interested in the subsequent market conditions, and they have their own opinions.
According to CCN, crypto fund Pantera Capital emphasized that there will be a potential important turning point before the Bitcoin block reward is halved. The team said:
“There is a lot of interest in the ‘halving’ because the Bitcoin supply is reduced every four years. Although there are only a few precedents, it seems that the price of Bitcoin has shown a pattern of block reward halving. We have found several patterns, one of which is that the market starts to change about a year before these block reward halving dates. For example, the first and second inflection points occurred about a year before the 2012 and 2016 halvings, respectively, and these two inflection points were 376 and 320 days before the halving date.”
The pattern provided by the team is very consistent with the current market. Since January this year, the price of Bitcoin has more than doubled. There is about a year left before the block reward halving date, and the market seems to have entered a "turning point".

Bitcoin price trend since 2019

In addition to the expected halving of Bitcoin block rewards, the overall volume of the cryptocurrency market is also increasing, which is another reason to be optimistic about the current market. Considering some of the world's economic and political situations, the demand for cryptocurrencies in the market may continue to increase. These factors will work together to provide momentum for the market to rise in the next year. (Wu Liu Finance)