Let’s do the math: How to choose between “high-priced” spot mining machines and “low-priced” futures?

At present, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise. After the bear market turned into a bull market, the mining income has been rising steadily, and the situation is improving. Mining machines are hard to find in the market, and the price has naturally risen. The spot price has also reached more than 200 yuan/T. At this time, mining machine manufacturers who do not have machines launched "futures" mining machines after the end of September at around 180 yuan. The price is 20 to 30 yuan cheaper than the spot price, and the energy efficiency is OK, which is very tempting. This puts many miners in a dilemma. Experienced miners are also wondering, the price is good, isn't it safer and more affordable to wait for futures mining machines? Should we choose a spot mining machine that is more than 20 yuan per ton higher, or choose future futures? Is the price difference of 20-30 yuan per ton worth waiting for?

With this question in mind, let's do some calculations with the mainstream spot mining machines available on the market. Take the Core Motion T2T-30T mining machine as an example. The market price per T is around 210 yuan. According to the market conditions on June 18, the daily net income is 51.94 yuan, and the net income per T is 1.73 yuan/day, using the flood season electricity price of 0.26 yuan/kWh. If the T2T-30T mining machine is used to mine one month earlier, the cost per T will be saved by 51.94 yuan; if it is mined two months earlier, the cost per T will be saved by 103.8 yuan; by the end of September when other futures mining machines are delivered, the cost per T of the T2T-30T mining machine has been saved by 155.7 yuan. Compared with the current futures price difference of 20-30 yuan, the spot mining machine has a clear price advantage. After 3 months, the actual price per T is less than 60 yuan, and more importantly, it has mined bullish coins. So let alone a 20 yuan price difference, even if it is a 100 yuan price difference, it is obvious that spot mining machines are more affordable.

At this time, someone will say that you are too optimistic in your calculations. You didn’t consider that the computing power has been rising in the past few months! But in fact, the price of coins is also rising, and it has obviously risen faster than the computing power in the past few months. So, in today’s world where mining machines are hard to come by, can the computing power double in a few months? Obviously not! So the previous estimate is a conservative one. The early mining will only bring higher returns and lower risks. Judging from the current cost per T of spot mining machines, buying a spot mining machine can save 4,266 yuan compared to the cost of futures mining machines in 3 months. And by then, the good positions in the flood season will no longer exist, and you are close to getting your money back. So early mining means early profit and good luck.

Another question to be clear is, why buy a mining machine? Mining machines cannot be eaten or drunk, isn't it just for making money! The price of a mining machine with no profit is also high, and the machine that can make money is cheap. In the past few months, the mining machine has good profits and the market is bullish, but there are not many mining machines. In fact, it is the most stable and the most not to be missed golden window period for making money! The market will be in a state of shortage of machines. Compared with this time last year, the price of mining machines is generally above 280/T yuan, but the profit is not as good as this year. The price of mining machines this year is not high. Also think about it, when the price of the currency continues to rise and the spot is out of stock, is there a big chance of waiting for a price reduction?
As a former miner, mining is actually about grasping the general trend and cash flow. It is better to worry about the risk and time cost than the price:
1. Uncertain factors in the future: Uncertainties such as the international situation, domestic policies, and the RMB exchange rate will directly affect the operation of the mine. The cost and stability of mining in the later stage are unknown. Choosing a spot mining machine is equivalent to choosing a high risk resistance. You don’t have to worry about anything after mining coins.
2. Changes in computing power competition: Currently, computing power growth cannot keep up with the price growth of coins, but this may not be the case in a few months. The mining market is time-sensitive, and mining machine production lags behind. The more time passes, the more intense the computing power competition will be, and the single T income will only decrease compared to now. With the same 1T computing power, mining a few months earlier will earn more coins and have greater room for appreciation;
3. Machine positions during the flood season: It is the critical period of flood season. At this time, the electricity price is low and the machine positions are abundant, which can effectively control the price of coins. Choose advanced mining machines that arrive earlier and put them on the market early for mining, so as to seize the profit window period and avoid the risks of the mine. The flood season of futures mining machines has already passed halfway, and the mining cost and operation risk have increased significantly.
4. Asset liquidity management: The price of coins changes very quickly. Seize the opportunity to mine and hoard coins. Then, when the price of coins soars in the future, it will be easier to manage the liquidity assets and realize them through machines!
In summary, the same 1T, different time, different benefits, different risks, and different costs. The same 1T, this 1T is not that 1T, time cost is sometimes more important than the cost of the mining machine. The mining machine market is tight now, it is hard to find a machine, the yield is high, the risk is low, and how long it will last is unknown. The price is not expensive now after taking into account the time cost. The price difference of 20-30 yuan is not a big deal. Those who order the goods are winners! Opportunities are fleeting. Only by quickly grasping the opportunity and calculating the time cost can you seize the peak of income.
The author believes that both bears and bulls are coming with great momentum, and only those who follow the trend will be the winners. You can plan for both spot and futures mining, but you must calculate the risks. Time cost is very important. You cannot simply be tempted by price and energy efficiency, and miss the most critical mining opportunity and do nothing, and sit on the sidelines and worry in the best window. In the case of market shortages and low electricity costs, the key to choosing between spot and futures is actually whether the operating risk and payback risk are comparable. Let me emphasize again that choosing a mining machine is not to save money, but to make money! In the time window with high returns and low uncertainty, mining coins early and mining more coins can ensure an invincible cash flow. You can't spend money, get up early, and catch the market late. As the saying goes, if I wait for tomorrow, everything will be wasted!