Some people say that everyone believes that the halving will lead to a bull market, and they have overdrawn the positive factors in advance, so the bull market will not come after the halving.

Regarding whether the halving bull market will come and how it will come, we can look at it from two aspects:

1. External performance: LTC halving example

LTC is a good experimental coin for BTC. LTC halving occurred earlier than BTC, and this round of LTC halving has already occurred on August 5 this year. Everyone expects a LTC halving bull market to occur, so how does the actual market trend?

All I can say is that history has striking similarities. This round of LTC halving is basically a round of money-making opportunities. If you buy at the bottom and sell at the top at almost the same time point (before halving) , you can make several times the profit. Did you pick up this money?

Second, the underlying principle: supply halving + bull-bear cyclical fluctuations

The LTC halving bull market is so similar to the previous round, and there is an inherent principle. There is no need to say more about the halving of supply. The instantaneous halving of the supply of a commodity will inevitably cause the supply and demand curve to move and the price to rise.

The long-term net supply of Bitcoin is only the output of miners, and the net demand is the demand for purchasing coins by newcomers who continue to enter the market. The demand will not change suddenly, so the instantaneous halving of supply will inevitably lead to a rise in prices, and then it may also form a news ⇄ bull market effect, which is a positive cycle that continues to attract newcomers and new funds to enter the market .

I repeat a passage from the last cycle, "4,000 yuan is the beginning of the Bitcoin bull market":

Regarding the positive effects of halving, many technical analysts believe that all the good news will be bad news, and this round of bull market will end here - sorry, I don’t understand the technical aspects, but I know that the fundamental effect of halving is a sustained positive effect . For example, if an oil company discovers a large oil field, will the company’s stock price fall and remain low for a long time after the oil field is put into production because of “all the good news will be bad news”? Obviously not, the stock price will only continue to rise with the exploitation of new oil fields and the accumulation of company profits and capital .

Regarding the cyclical fluctuations of bull and bear markets , I have talked about this in previous lectures. The reason why Bitcoin has value and a bull market is because Bitcoin provides new economic freedoms (cross-border, unfreezable, anti-inflation storage, etc.) through decentralization (indestructible), which brings about users' rigid demand , so Bitcoin has risen.

The bull market of Bitcoin is created by intrinsic value, while the bear market is created by the bull market . When the market sentiment is fanatical and the bubble is serious at the end of a bull market, and the short-term price increase exceeds the speed of newcomers and new funds entering the market, the bubble of the bull market will burst and the bear market will begin . I have said in previous lectures that this process can be described in mathematical language as "the 60-day cumulative increase" is too high.

3. The resonance formed by the bull-bear cycle + the halving cycle

Therefore, the bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin is not created by halving, but is something that will happen naturally: it rises because it is useful, and it falls because it rises too much . Even if Bitcoin was designed to have a constant output instead of halving from time to time, Bitcoin would still experience periodic bull-bear fluctuations .

The design of Bitcoin's output halving every four years has created a resonance between the "bull-bear cycle" and the "halving cycle" . For example, the bear market should have bottomed out in April according to fluctuations, but it halved in July. Halving means an increase, which makes the bottoming time come earlier. The "bull-bear cycle" is gradually adjusted to be consistent with the "halving cycle", forming a resonance.

Therefore, there is a clear resonance in the history of Bitcoin, and when the last two halvings occurred (when blue turned red in the figure below), spectacular halving bull markets occurred .

4. Conclusion: History will not repeat itself, but it has striking similarities

1. Currently, some people believe that it is still a bear market, while some believe that it is the early stage of a bull market. Regardless of which opinion is held, it means that the current bull-bear cycle position contains upward potential that can be triggered by halving .

2. BTC’s halving bull market is likely to start in a very similar form as LTC’s halving bull market.

3. Any technical analysis that predicts future trends from short-term K-lines (rather than K-lines over 4 years) is useless because there is no halving in the short-term K-lines .

4. The halving bull market can be predicted in the long term, but the short-term currency price cannot be predicted. Therefore , do not play leveraged futures. Complete the fixed investment of the remaining funds in October and November , and hold on to the spot.