|
Those who bought mining machines at the bottom at the end of last year are now making money
In the second half of 2018, miners, mine owners, and mining machine manufacturers held a large mining circle meeting in Wuhan. Some people commented that this was not a miners' meeting, but their farewell dinner, so tragic. Indeed, at the end of 2018, many people had a hard time. After all, miners are a very important part of this industry. They have been circulating in various cycles, understand the most clearly, think the most clearly, and make decisions very resolutely. Many people made money. At the end of last year, many old miners chose to buy the S9 at a price of more than 600 yuan. After the new year, the market began to pick up, and the mining machines that bought the bottom had themselves doubled several times, not to mention the price difference of the mined coins minus the electricity cost, which had long been recovered and making money in various ways.
As the market started to rise in April 2019, the price of Bitcoin once approached 14,000 US dollars in June. The increase of Bitcoin often best reflects the ups and downs of the market. After all, this is the basic consensus. If this basic consensus is gone, then everything will be gone.
The mining industry started to recover in April and May
The main stall of mining machine dealers in Shenzhen is SEG. In June this year, the number of stores suddenly increased by 30%, and the price was slashed. But even so, many people who wanted to buy some new mining machines in August paid first, and then the futures were not available until November. In other words, the mining machine that was previously worth 16,000 yuan has not been received yet, and the mining machine may only be worth 12,000 yuan. This is the business of mining machines. Will dealers hoard mining machines? Most of the time they will not hoard mining machines, so when will they hoard them? Either when the mainstream mining machines have fallen below the freezing point price (shutdown price), that is, when the bitcoin mined by the unit computing power has no profit after deducting the average market electricity cost, this is the freezing point. And once this freezing point is reached, it will not warm up instantly, but will only last for a period of time. The result of this continuation is that some small miners have problems with capital turnover and cannot even pay the electricity bill in the short term, and they will shut down. Once there is a large-scale shutdown, the overall computing power of the entire network will decrease, and the bitcoin mined by the unit computing power will increase, and a new dynamic balance will be reached.
In April and May, as the price of Bitcoin rose, mining machines naturally became a relatively stable business. Therefore, at that stage, all kinds of mining machines needed in the market, the spot mining machines circulating in the market, and the new mining machines that were about to be released all became popular. In the case of unequal supply and demand, a unilateral price increase directly appeared in the market. Bitcoin's computing power once reached more than 110E at its peak this year. On October 15, the data from bitinfocharts cited by Ostrich Blockchain showed that this value is now only 87.55E. In other words, in a short period of time, Bitcoin's computing power has decreased by nearly 20%, which means that more than 30% of mining machines may not be connected to the network. On October 17, Ostrich Blockchain cited data from tokeninsight showing that the unit computing power mining profit rate of BTC hit a new low in 2019. In other words, the continuous influx of Bitcoin mining machines in the market, as well as the entry of larger-scale and more powerful equipment, may directly eliminate all kinds of high-energy-consuming mining machines in the past. And the current situation is that these new mining machines are still in great demand.
Money from traditional finance is coming in in various ways?
There is nowhere for the money from traditional finance to go. It seems that more than 90% of fixed income companies have closed down. Where can you let them go? It is not so easy for the money from traditional compliant financial institutions to enter. At least you have to comply with the regulations. Then where and what you invest your money in needs to be managed and registered. In the end, you can only make supercomputing centers, cloud computing power and other concepts, make them into limited partnerships, and then directly configure them into mining machines, leaving enough operating expenses including electricity costs, and then start mining. As a fundraiser for mining funds and a mining machine hosting operator, the business is actually more interesting. As a trustee, management fees are definitely required, and some institutions receive 20% as high. For people in traditional finance, they are actually indifferent. As long as you tell them that this business will definitely earn more than 20% a year, they will ask you how much you can ask for. However, the trustee, the mining machine seller, the mining farm, and the mining pool have become a small rat warehouse, and all places can dig money from traditional finance. The price of mining machines is relatively high, and the mining farms cut the computing power in turns, and agree with the mining pool on a computing power rebate, plus the management fee of the trustee, all added up, it is actually quite considerable. After all, this is a matter of willing to fight and willing to be beaten, or in other words, if you hit me, I am in a state of complete indifference. So everyone is in a happy and harmonious state, making money in all kinds of ways. At this time, mining sometimes becomes the object of blame for the p2p crash. Although the baby feels bitter, it doesn’t matter whether you say it or not. It’s best if you say it, so that more people will participate. With more people participating, we are likely to make money again.
This year's miners are somewhat different from last year's
Last year, many miners were new to the market. At the end of the year, they found that they were being ripped off badly, so they had no choice but to accept the loss. After selling their last mining machine, they cursed, "You are a bunch of scammers," and then left in disgrace. After all, it was very painful to not be able to pay for electricity with the coins mined. Many people collapsed during that period, so the various recycling situations of the 600-yuan s9 mentioned above appeared. Because in desperation, investors had almost no bargaining power, so they just sold it as scrap metal, leaving as much dregs as possible. However, some of the miners we talked to this time have a good mentality. After all, every failure makes you wiser, and now they are also preparing for a rainy day. Some directly prepay the electricity bill for half a year and will not touch it. If there is a systemic risk in the market, this money will be used as a margin for a certain period to ensure that there will be no large-scale shutdowns and bankruptcies due to the inability to pay the electricity bill. Some platforms have even begun to use financial leverage. For example, you can put your mining machine in my mine to mine, and I can lend you a sum of money to activate the liquidity of the assets. Some institutions even say that I will help you book an absolutely cheap futures mining machine, but you must configure it according to a certain ratio, and your mining machines are all in my mine, etc.
Miners have learned a little bit of financial leverage, so they are unlikely to be as desperate as they were last year, so the market will fluctuate more smoothly. Some miners will even use Bitcoin as collateral to borrow USDT, sell at high prices, buy at low prices, and use hedging to stabilize the fluctuations of assets. Moreover, many people have tasted the sweetness directly in this process, but if you ask these old miners to play futures, they still won't do it. At least smart miners with a certain size will not stare at futures prices all day long.
The mining machine arms race is very similar to the hardware upgrade of iPhone
The world of mining machines is a world of hardware competition, and each company has brought out its unique skills. The 7-nanometer mining machine has higher computing power, lower unit energy consumption, and a higher rate of return on bitcoin mined per unit computing power after deducting electricity costs. However, after a new computing power mining machine comes out, it will not be eliminated in a short period of time, and there will be at least a cycle of about 3 years. For example, you will definitely not see mining machines like s7 on the market now. The mainstream is still s9, but there are new mining machines that are gradually increasing the market share of this industry. It may not be long before s9 will also face the possibility of being eliminated. This is very similar to the hardware upgrade of iPhone, but the underlying factor is still the competition of hardware equipment, and the big mining machine factories are the ones who can continue to make money. For many people outside the industry, what kind of business is this? It feels like playing house. However, no matter what, existence is reasonable, and this is the best response. With the continuous emergence of higher computing power and higher yield per unit computing power, many people will experience a reshuffle.
How much might Bitcoin fall back to this year?
The founder of a large domestic mining pool publicly stated on Weibo that the bottom has almost been reached. Now is the last chance to get on board before the bull market comes. His logic is based on the trend of changes in the market before and after the halvings in the past, which corresponds to the current market situation. But there are other opinions. Everyone knows that there will be a halving and there will be a market, so who will make money? Only when most people are killed and the chips are changed hands will there be a real chance to take off. Otherwise, after taking off, it will be a wedding dress for others. Therefore, some people believe that this wave of market may pull back to 5,000 points, of course, it will not last for a long time, it may be a matter of a moment. Generally speaking, there is still a consensus on the halving next year, but different people have different perceptions in this market. In this market, perception is like paying an IQ tax, and in many cases, this perception determines all gains and losses, and this so-called experience also changes with different people in this market and the price changes of Bitcoin in the secondary market. Just like many people predicted the market, but did not anticipate the changes in the market. The only thing to say is, don’t get on and off the bus too often. In most cases, choice is far greater than effort.
|
