Haiyi Original | Industry in-depth analysis article (VI) Important interpretation: "Mining industry" is removed from the "elimination industry" of the National Development and Reform Commission introduction This morning, a piece of great good news exploded in my circle of friends: On November 6, the Chinese government website released the "Guidelines for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2019 Edition)", which deleted the virtual currency "mining" activities that were eliminated in the previous "Draft for Comments". The Guidance Catalogue has been reviewed and approved at the 2nd Commission Meeting on August 27, 2019, and is now announced and will take effect on January 1, 2020. Later I will carefully interpret this message through three questions. 1: On October 25, the country vigorously promoted the development of blockchain. In the long run, what benefits will this bring to the entire blockchain industry? What is the impact of these policies on the entire mining industry? 1.1 What are the benefits of the 1025 policy for the blockchain industry? On October 25, the country proposed the development of blockchain technology as an important strategic plan for the country's future development. This kind of policy benefit at the national level is something the blockchain industry has never encountered before. Feedback from all aspects of the market is enough to prove that the spring of the blockchain industry has arrived. Although we have published two articles in a row last week to explain the 1025 policy in detail, we will briefly summarize the benefits for the blockchain industry: 1. The blockchain industry will be greatly promoted. The three goals, five guarantees and five areas in the government spirit provide strong support for the future development of the blockchain industry. 2. The applicability of blockchain technology in areas such as "alliance chain", "coinless blockchain" and "public chain" has been greatly enhanced 3. The recognition of blockchain technology is also the recognition of Bitcoin as the first practical application of blockchain technology, and the price of the currency has risen accordingly. 4. The demand for blockchain technology will trigger another round of talent competition in the talent market, and talents related to computer and cryptography will be sought after. 5. A good company will never worry about money, and capital will come to it. 1.2 Impact of the 1025 policy on the mining industry Looking back at the impact of the policy on the mining industry, the policy on October 25 is relatively unfavorable to mining machine manufacturers. The main reasons are as follows: 1. The country advocates that blockchain technology will play an important role in the future, but regulatory agencies such as the central bank and the Internet Finance Regulatory Office have always tended to be strict and cautious about Bitcoin and a series of digital currencies. 2. As soon as the policy was released, we could see from the mainstream media’s successive statements that the key content was to correct the perception of digital currencies such as Bitcoin. 3. The main business of several large mining machine manufacturers is in chip manufacturing and mining machine manufacturing, rather than the recently popular "alliance chain" and "public chain" technologies. Combining the above three points, we can see that based on the policy analysis last week alone, the benefits to the mining industry are indeed not great, and the only benefit is the rise in the price of coins. This will save a group of miners from the brink of shutdown, and the demand for mining machines by mine owners will change from a decline to a normal state, and the sales volume of mining machines by mining machine manufacturers can also maintain a steady growth trend. 2. The National Development and Reform Commission has deleted "virtual currency mining" from the "eliminate industries". What impact will this amendment to the regulations have on mining machine manufacturers? In the previous question, I discussed the policy on October 25th, but the change in attitude of the National Development and Reform Commission towards the revision of the national industrial policy this morning was unexpected by every practitioner in the "mining circle". The elimination of the industry and the removal of "mining" is a benefit to the "mining circle" that is comparable to the promotion of the national blockchain development policy on October 25th to the entire industry. Next, let’s talk about the impact of today’s regulatory amendment on mining machine manufacturers in the mining industry? Basic logic: The expected halving of Bitcoin mining output + the change in the national policy attitude towards the mining industry + the country’s encouragement of the development of the blockchain industry → these three positive factors will drive the price of mainstream “mining coins” such as Bitcoin to rise steadily. I have said before that the relationship between coin price and computing power is that coin price affects computing power, not computing power affecting coin price. Similarly, the sales volume and demand for mining machines are completely related to the computing power. The rise in coin price and favorable policies for the future development of the mining industry will increase the demand of miners and mine owners for mining machines with stronger computing power, and the demand for mining machines with superior energy efficiency ratio will increase. In order to meet the corresponding demand, mining machine manufacturers need to further expand production capacity, and the sales volume of mining machines will also increase. In the future, mining machine manufacturers will mainly improve the competitiveness of their products by improving chip performance and reducing energy consumption. After each company occupies a certain market share and the market tends to be saturated, the sales volume of mining machines will ultimately depend on which company has the lower energy consumption ratio and price. 3. How will mining machine manufacturers change their future development plans? How will the supply chain change? 2.2 Zcash , Hash In the above question, we briefly talked about the impact of policies on mining machine manufacturers. In fact, for this question, we can explore in depth the impact of policy changes on the development of the mining industry. 3.1 Development plan of mining machine manufacturers: In order to meet the increasing market demand, mining machine manufacturers will focus on ensuring production capacity in the short term to meet the demand of the mining machine market, which is in short supply; in the medium term, they will focus on increasing the mining machine market share; in the long term, manufacturers will improve chip design, R&D and manufacturing capabilities, make progress in product manufacturing and chip R&D, expand business areas, and promote the transformation and application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and 5G. Mining machine manufacturing companies that are more profitable in this batch of policy dividends will have more funds to invest in chip manufacturing and R&D, which will also play a role in feeding back the development of the country's future chip industry. 3.2 Impact on the entire mining industry supply chain: First, let’s talk about the lifeblood of mining: the power industry. Previously, I posted an article on my personal social media about how many bitcoins were lost in China's "abandoned electricity" in 2018. The article calculated in detail how much energy China wasted in a year due to waste and abandoned electricity, which can be converted into 1.8 million bitcoins. For the southwest and northwest regions, grasping the time rules and actively cooperating with local government policies to convert "abandoned electricity" into effective mining machine electricity can better promote the development of the mining industry, effectively absorb the waste of natural resources, and bring tax revenue and wealth to local governments and residents. In fact, it is really a good thing to kill two birds with one stone. The relaxation of policies and regulations on the mining industry has ensured the basic conditions for mining industries in various places, and no longer poses operating risks due to power supply and government supervision. Especially for regions with abundant renewable energy resources but backward economy, they will no longer be unable to build mines due to policy constraints. Instead, it will help the local economy and increase people's income. It will have a certain driving effect on downstream companies in the mining industry, such as mining pools, cloud computing mining, and mining hosting markets. Due to the reduction of policy risks, the number of new users entering the mining field will increase. Whoever can attract new users will have the upper hand in the next stage of competition. In the future, we at BitDeer will further improve the cost-effectiveness of cloud computing products through our efficient integration capabilities for mining business and advantages in the construction of mining machines and mining farms, shorten the distance between ordinary users and mining, lower the threshold, and allow users to mine with one click and reap the benefits. Finally, I would like to remind everyone that although the revision of the regulations by the National Development and Reform Commission has brought benefits to the entire industry, we have to pay attention to the country's strong regulatory attitude towards digital virtual currencies, so there may still be a possibility of a sudden policy change in the future. Therefore, it is necessary for all companies and media in the industry to maintain a low-key and humble attitude, avoid some exaggeration and fraudulent behavior, and do something that is truly helpful to the country and society. Only then can this industry gradually get on the right track and develop in a healthy way, and everyone in this industry will benefit in the end. Only by keeping silent can you make a fortune! |
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