Litecoin, all mining machines are approaching the shutdown price... Bitcoin King S9 is also "difficult"

How to put it, Litecoin computing power may be about to experience a critical hit.

At present, mining is still in the flood season, and the electricity fee is calculated at 0.35 yuan per kilowatt-hour. The CoinIn mining pool can automatically calculate the net profit of the Litecoin mining machine. The situation is quite terrifying. The mainstream L3 series mining machines have reached the shutdown price. For all the remaining mining machines, the electricity fee accounts for more than 70%. Only three mining machines are relatively safe. The best performing one is the Innosilicon A6+, but its daily net income is only 5.89 yuan.

As October draws to a close and the dry season is approaching, according to Feng Chong from the CoinIndustry Research Institute, the price of thermal power in the northwest will rise to 0.38 yuan, or even more than 0.4 yuan. Then, the above-mentioned mining machines will be even more dangerous.

According to a miner's analysis, the main contributors to Litecoin's computing power are the L3 series mining machines, which account for about 70%. In other words, if these machines are theoretically shut down, then Litecoin's computing power will drop by 70%.

With the addition of those machines at risk, if the price of the currency continues to fall, the computing power of Litecoin will be further reduced. Let's take a look at the data of QKL123. Since the halving of Litecoin, its computing power has dropped by 45% from its peak.

"We have our own mine and our own electricity, so we can still hold on," said the miner.

Isn't that horrible? "It doesn't matter," he said.

Why do I say this? After all, mining is a game of cost and benefit, and the above calculation is only a static theoretical calculation.

In fact, the costs of different miners are not the same. Those with high costs will shut down, while those with low costs will continue to mine. Moreover, the difference in costs may be large because mining is expanding towards specialization and globalization.

Moreover, assuming that a large number of mining machines are shut down, the profits of the remaining mining machines per unit time will increase. This is a dynamic balance process.

Moreover, even if the price of the currency reaches the shutdown price, it is not easy to shut down. Miners and mining farms, mining farms and electricity sellers will sign an annual electricity agreement, and they cannot stop mining.

Furthermore, if you hedge the currency price by opening a short position in the futures market through hedging, your ability to resist risks will be even higher.

In addition, some miners have already transferred risks by selling cloud computing power.

Of course, overall, a large amount of computing power will temporarily exit the stage of history.

Will the hardship of mining be transmitted to the secondary market? What reference significance does this have for Litecoin's secondary market investment? Some people believe that the mining cost price is the bottom price of a certain digital currency. Others believe that when the price of a currency hits the cost line, miners will choose to sell a large number of coins to pay for electricity costs, and the large selling pressure will continue to suppress the price of the currency. Others believe that the price of a currency in the secondary market determines the computing power, but the computing power will not determine the price of a currency in turn.

The degree of specialization in mining is no longer what it used to be, and so is the complexity of the secondary market. I think it is a metaphysical question to deduce secondary market investment simply from the dimensions of computing power and cost.

In the absence of conflicts and disputes between miners, mining sites and electricity sellers in the market, it can be considered that the price of the currency is still within the tolerance of miners. For example, if you don’t hear that home buyers are smashing sales offices and accusing real estate developers of selling houses at a discount, don’t expect house prices to fall much.

Let’s take a look at how Bitcoin performs. This is a chart showing the changes in Bitcoin computing power on QKL123. It continues to rise and has already firmly reached the historical milestone of 100E. However, as the price of Bitcoin breaks through $8,000, Bitcoin mining is not easy.

At present, mining machines with electricity costs accounting for less than 50% are basically new mining machines with high computing power and low power consumption, while mining machines like Antminer S9, which have been in service for many years and have a computing power accounting for more than 50%, are in danger. From the above data, at an electricity price of 0.35 yuan, when the price of Bitcoin breaks through 46,466 yuan (about 6,600 US dollars), S9 will reach the shutdown price.

Earlier, when Babbitt interviewed Chen Feng, the sales director of Canaan Creative, he said: "The dry season is coming, and a large number of small computing power machines will be temporarily shut down due to the lack of suitable mining farms. The currency price will go sideways and the revenue will decline, and the computing power will decline in the short term. Although new machines are shipped, the actual shipment volume cannot offset the computing power lost by the large number of shutdowns, so the computing power will not surge before the end of the year. But the computing power is ultimately linked to the rise in the currency price, and it depends on the currency price."

Why are all Litecoin mining machines approaching the warning line, but Bitcoin mining machines are not? The reason is that Litecoin lacks new mining machines that have been upgraded.